It’s been ages since I have posted. Turns out 2023 wasn’t a great handicapping year, in terms of time, volume, and success.
I just ran my year end stats, and booked a small ($300 ish) loss for the year. My handle was less than half of my better years. Real life often intervenes, and a home renovation and the 9-5 clearly dominated for me.
A little road trip to Penn National for Penn Mile early in the summer was my grand day out, and a nice score with some extra hit it and split it money on Belmont Day was the playing highlight.
I’ve slowly been trying to rebuild the playback book, which totally waned in the late summer/fall. A nice hit on John Sadler’s Autoline this past week will spur me into 2024 with a bit more enthusiasm.
Today’s Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park kicked off my campaign of tracking horses for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, which I’ll try to do a much better job of this spring!
Gettysburg Address took the worst of the bumping early and Prat took him back and tried to make a big run. I’ll offer him a little forgiveness for taking the bump, and he finished stronger than most, though was never gaining on winner Catching Freedom, who benefitted from an inside out trip behind a solid 23.2 pace and finished up well.
Informed Patriot was a good third for Asmussen and Santana, and took a little bump down on the rail and never really got a full run at the winner. Don’t know that he was ever winning, but may have been closer with a better trip. He was hemmed in most of the way, but then didn’t completely fire when he did have daylight late.
That’s all for now . . . Happy New Year to one and all, and let’s cash in 2024!
Spent a spectacular weekend at Saratoga this weekend, with a tip of the cap to I.M. Bettor for hosting.
It was my first trip to the spa in three years, thanks to the pandemic, but it brought back a number of fine points for handicapping the spa.
1. Saratoga is a different kind of animal.
So much money in the pools, and so many well-meant horses, you can’t just bet the last-race speed figure like you can at Aqueduct and be right 80 percent of the time. The title of this post – “The Odds Must Be Crazy” – is the key. Late Friday, I started to hone in. There were three horses who’s odds were insane:
Theodora Grace 13-1
Waterville 11-1
Dufresne 25-1
I made all to about half their listed price. Boxed em up and was unlucky to get split by Todd Pletcher’s Whatlovelookslike at the wire to disrupt what would have been about a $300 exacta for a $2 play. Unlucky, but spot on.
At Saratoga Race Track, there are more fish, and more money in the pools. Like everyhere, money gravitates to the favorites, but here, almost all the horses are well-meant. There aren’t many tourists among the horsemen and owners. Make your own line and seek value.
2. Value is where you find it.
Saturday gave us three more handicapping basics that provided obvious situations to get value.
Damon’s Mound in the Saratoga Special went off at 9/5, while Gulfport, the big buzz horse was 2/5. Watching the replays for me confirmed that Damon’s Mound was no less capable – winning by nearly the length of the stretch and overcoming a bad start in his debut. This is a great angle I love for 2 year olds stretching out – if they run late or overcome trouble in their first or second start, I find them great plays as the races get longer. The difference in odds was too great for the difference in accomplishments. I hit the send button on my wager at 2-1, which dropped to 9/5 as they went in the gate.
Damon’s Mound in the winner’s circle!
The Coach, D Wayne Lukas unleashed a second-time starter, Bourbon Bash, against a field of firsters. He’d done enough (a 64 beyer in debut) and was ignored at 4-1. Should have been no worse than a co-favorite, and 5-2. We cashed.
Casa Creed is a multiple graded stakes winner against some of the top turf sprinters and milers of his generation. His best efforts lately have come sprinting, and I think that’s what let him go at 4-1 in the Fourstardave while Regal Glory was 3-5. The presence of Masen and Get Smokin ensured there would be pace to run at, and if your going to give me Regal Glory and Casa Creed with an even start, 4-1 was waaaaaaay to juicy to let go. We cashed again.
Casa Creed
3. What are you doing here ?
If you are spending a day at the track, I think you need to know your purpose. A blind squirrel stumbles across a nut now and then, but I like to lock in on what I’m doing that day. Am I there to gamble (and win!) or to socialize. I know I don’t do both equally effectively, so Friday I got there early to settle in from the excitement of being back at the track, and with a group of friends, I conscientiously dialed back my wagers as I didn’t love the New York Bred card. More chaos than my style jibes with, so I let it be a more social day. Saturday we settled in with the stakes card and a couple of solid targets to play, some hit (see above) some didn’t, but I played to my strength and left with a small profit – though we were alive to several grand in the nightcap, which didn’t pan out. Sunday we split up the early pick 5 and left with a fine pile of money.
Gratuitous beauty shot.
4. Watch out for the steam or smoke
There’s a lot of steam, smoke, and tips on all sorts of horses. Saratoga is a small town, the horsemen comingle with the racegoers everywhere. It’s not uncommon to sit at dinner with one of that day’s winning trainers a table or two away. Everyone wants to win, and everyone wants to believe they have an angle. Be careful who you listen to, and trust only the sources you trust. As Paul LoDuca said on the Saratoga Live broadcast the other day “I have tips on about eight horses in this race.” They can’t all win – trust your handicapping and budget your bankroll.
Weekend Notes:
The track seems to have quickened up considerably this week after the hot spell. Good times in some of Sunday’s races. The track had been tiring, extra credit to those who have a race over thr track or a series of works on it as we move forward in the meet. I still think you don’y want to be TOO FAR back on the turf. Keep an eye on changes and rails for the inner and the Mellon courses.
Expressman appears to be monster – and I’ll be playing back the next two from that race.
The Fourstardave and Saratoga Special are two of my favorite races at the Spa. You typically get good fields, and for some reason I have cashed these two often.
Shoutout Solevo ! We had a fantastic meal at Solevo on Friday night . . . a late reservation and a big party were no obstacle to great food and great service. The buzz is indeed warranted!
Try the veal parm!
Bad Ride of the Week: Set Piece in the Arlington Million was a key play back for me. I figured him very live in that spot, but Flo had him 10 lengths back on a course that favored nothing but speed this spring. Knew I was dead less than halfway down the back stretch. Will likely be playing him back – I don’t think either of the last two trips is reflective of the horses ability.
Arlington Million: Memo to Churchill Downs – it’s bad enough that you clesed the venue – please keep the name of the race the “Arlington Million” and reflect it’s proper history, heritage and significance in racing.
If you found him in the past performances, you hit the all button, or perhaps your name was rich.
At the top of the stretch, I thought I was cashing. Epicenter made the lead, Crown Pride and Messier were fading but right there, and Zendon was closing.
But unknown Rich Strike got the “Mine That Bird trip” up the rail and spoiled my best laid plans. Nearly impossible to find in the PP’s the app had him at the bottom of the barrel, I guess the horse for course angle may have been his best redeeming quality. I did hear that time form had Rich Strike high in late pace, but that’s not a product I have used much. (Too much data can lead to analysis paralysis).
Trip thoughts ? Mo Donegal took the worst of it nearly 10 wide, and closed faster than anyone but the winner. Irad didn’t have many choices other than the overland route, and I think he’s definitely bettable- back wherever he ends up. He will need some pace set up, which might limit his opportunities, but I’ll be watching closely.
Epicenter clearly was strongest, not unduly far from the pace, and held off Zandon (who looks to not want that last furlong), before getting nailed late. Zandon got his trip and couldn’t get it done, I’d look for him to shorten up, and be aware of his pace scenario next out.
The California horses were unspectacular. Messier made the lead and surrendered, and lacked the late stamina we’ve seen from past Baffert runners. Victim of the pace ? Possibly, but will look at him with a raised eyebrow before reaching for my wallet. Taiba ran about how I expected. Let him regroup and the talent may shine again.
Simplification was the most underlet horse on the board, and ran repectably – will look for his next appearance.
Barber Road and Tiz The Bomb, both horses I used underneath, ran decently. They both need a little pace, but are near the top of the class.
I don’t expect we’ll see Crown Pride back anytime soon, but looks like 9f is about his limit. I used him significantly based on his works, and didn’t think he’d be quite so sharp and on the pace. His last 3/8 in Dubai weren’t that fast, turns out that was the data to lean on.
Finally, Jack Christopher returned in impressive fashion on the undercard – he’ll be one to watch in the division moving forward.
My Kentucky Derby column for Sports Chowdah with picks …
The Kentucky Derby comes up this weekend – the first Saturday in May, the Run for the Roses, the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Here’s a primer on what to watch for, and who to wager on.
What to watch: Steve Asmussen all-time leading trainer in terms of total races won -but he’s never one the Derby. Several of his horses have outperformed their odds, and he brings in one of his best chances ever in#3 Epicenter, who will be the first or second choice in the wagering by post time.
Trainer Brad Cox has been around long enough to not necessarily a young upstart anymore, but he trained last year’s “winner” Mandaloun, who DQ’d into the win, while Cox’s other horse, the favorite Essential Quality ran fourth. Cox will bring three chances into the derby with Cyberknife, Zozos and Tawny Port all making the starting gate this year – but I don’t think any of them is fast enough to win.
Speaking of the DQ last year, what you won’t see is the familiar face of Bob Baffert who’s been suspended by Churchill downs due to a medication violation on the late Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first last year it was eventually disqualified. Baffert has won seven Kentucky Derbies, but he’s been benched. Baffert is still a represented in one sense as two of his top horses have been transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen. #12 Taiba appears to be super talented by lacks foundation with only 2 career starts. #6 Messier could be a value play if his odds float up. He will be forwardly placed, and Baffert runners have been known to carry that speed late.
Who to bet: the favorites #3 Epicenter and #10 Zandon have no knocks, both have the requisite speed figures, Epicenter will be forwardly placed in the race, which is usually a good thing. Zandon will be coming from a bit further back, and both figure if the track is wet.
Who not to bet: #1 Mo Donegal got a terrible draw in post 1, and will have to work out a trip from behind a lot of horses in the 20 horse field. The best of trainer Todd Pletcher’s horses, he’ll be over-bet given the draw.
If you’re looking to juice up your bankroll with an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, I’ll be using #8 Charge It, #14 Barber Road, #9 Tiz the Bomb and Japanese invader #7 Crown Pride in the 2nd, 3rd, and fourth spots as they have a chance to hit the board as a price.
How to Play:
The pick: if you are ok with a favorite. #3 Epicenter 7-2
If you want a little gamble: #6 Messier at 9-1 or higher:
If you like the long shots: #7 Crown Pride 30-1, but Japanese horses have dominated big international races lately
My probable and recommended plays:
Exacta box: #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier
over #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier , #15 White Abarrio, #1 Mo Donegal
a $1 exacta box will cost you $12 at the window (as you get all 12 combinations)
Trifecta partwheel: : #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier over #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier , #15 White Abarrio, #1 Mo Donegal, #8 Charge It, #7 Crown Pride, #9 Tiz the Bomb and #14 Barber Road
This one will cost you a bit more: a 50-cent tri partwheel will be $84 at the window, but 7 times in 10 years from 2010-2020 the tri paid $2,000 or more.
The derby is unique in the US as the only race that has 20 horses … as a handicapper it’s a great chance to get paid if you’re right – or to be embarrassed when you’re wrong. But with huge money in the pools and a strong undercard it’s a great day of racing and wagering.
Good luck, stick to your bankroll, and enjoy the day. The undercard races will feature many of the best horses in America, and the pomp and flair of Derby Day can’t be beat. Put on your best hat, and enjoy a mint julep with the great races!
Here’s a peek at one of the tools I’ve been messing with, which is a scatter plot generated by the handicapping app we are developing.
The axis are based on speed and power ratings, and the upper right corner is generally where you want to live. The size of the dots is based on the angles we have built into the program – the bigger the dot, the more positive angles. Red = stop for short odds, green are mid-priced, and blue is bombs away.
It’s a way to get a lot of data quickly sorted, and you can see there is a clear split between the top nine in the upper right and everyone else.
I don’t substitute this for all my handicapping, but it’s a good starting point.
I’m de-emphasizing Mo Donegal and Taiba based on post and inexperience respectively.
Messier is one I can’t keep off the tickets, and he may be underbet given all the Baffert hoopla.
Epicenter has a huge dot – plenty going his way. Not a win bet but a key in the exotics. Charge it and Tiz the Bomb I’ll use underneath to try to juice up a ticket.
Been working on the app off and on for a little over a year, hopefully a lot more time to refine this summer. But in the meantime check it out and let me know what you think of the format, and we’ll see how it plays in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
Thanks for coming over to take a look at my site. I blog about (my) general interest topics in horse racing and handicapping. I post on twitter at @turfcapper and track trips on horses to bet back, that I will share with friends. If you are interested in receiving the bet back list from time to time, drop me a note in the comments below, or message me on twitter.
Chris and Dave, inside couldn’t hold on to win at Aqueduct on March 25, 2022. But he’s held my attention on the game for years. (Screengrab courtesy of my NYRABets account)
I first noticed him because of the name – because I am Dave, and my best friend from junior high through life, has been Chris.
I saw him in the form one day years ago – hey, he’s nine years old, that’s part of what makes him special – and shot my friend Chris a picture of the name, and said “Hey, our horse is running today.”
He won. I’m not exactly sure which of his 76 career starts, or 16 wins it was. But I’ve been aboard ever since.
You see, Chris and Dave has run from coast to coast – almost literally – from Del Mar to Aqueduct, from Cantebury to Gulfstream.
He tries hard. His 47 in-the-money finishes I submit as evidence.
He’s an over achiever. On October 15, 2015, you could have bought him for $12,500 in a maiden claimer. If you did, you’d have pocketed about $800,000 in winnings since then.
He started as a maiden claimer, took his shot at greatness in the Los Al Derby. He didn’t punch his ticket to Louisville, but he didn’t disgrace himself against eventual Breeders Cup Champ and Eclipse winner Accelerate.
(In fact he’s run against, in no particular order: Met Mile winner Bee Jersey, Quip, Snapper Sinclair Pioneer Spirit, Empty Tomb, Endorsed, Shotgun Kowboy, Patch, Pirates Punch, Hunka Burning Love, Sleepy Eyes Todd, Rated R Superstar, Bank It, Bodecream, and NY Bred standout Mr Buff)
He’s run enough 100 speed figures to earn a couple of tries in graded stakes, and a bunch of listed ones, and even won one.
He’s run on dirt. He’s run on turf. He’s run on synthetic – even though I still don’t have the foggiest idea how to handicap it.
He’s run at 15 different tracks in nine states with 30 different jockeys of every ilk – from Stewart Elliot, who won 2/3 of the triple crown, to current hotshots Jose Ortiz and Luis Saez, and for a few guys you’ve forgotten, and couple others you’ve never heard of, unless you’ve been to Will Rogers Downs or spend an awful lot of hours watching TVG.
Chris and Dave entertained us during those early, locked-down days of the pandemic, when the world stopped, but the horses still ran – which kept us from going stir crazy as we played him at Oaklawn, Will Rogers, Prairie Meadows and Canterbury before the world started to open back up.
And he’s kept Chris and I connected. The stable alert hardly bleeps on the phone before Chris or I message the other, which at this point leads to a conversation about our houses, our families, and life, not just about a horse and what we might wager that day.
Chris and Dave is nine. He may have lost a step this winter. I know Chris and I both have. I feared he might be done when he got dusted by 26 lengths in his first off the bench. And he probably has this summer left in him, which I’ll savor, while hoping he retires a happy horse this fall.
He’s run for Steve Asmussen, Linda Rice, and Robertino Diodoro, among others. Rob Atras just claimed him for $16,000 out of his last start at Aqueduct, when Chris and Dave bounced back to form but lost by a step late.
“Our guy” is lexicon for someone who’s more than a friend, who gets things done.
I wish Rob Atras well – but he better not run Our Guy Chris and Dave any cheaper, or I’m getting my owners license . . .
So a quick post to update the takedown scoreboard (and life) … I have neither been playing or posting much the past couple of months, largely due to a family health issue that had me traveling a lot to support the family. I did score out pretty well last weekend, thanks to a minority share in the Trashman’s weekend pick tickets. Sometimes handicapping the ‘cappers might be more valuable than the horses !
The takedown scoreboard gets a semi update, as yesterday had a couple bucks on Yamato, who’s better than the starter allowance conditions he keeps finding … anyway, Luis had to take him 4-wide off the turn, made the lead for a bob, but Road to Meath had just a bit more in reserve off an inside trip, and won. But wait, there’s more – the stewards inquiry went up, as they investigated whether Road to Meath came out and forced fourth place runner American Ninja to check … Paco was already going backwards but checked hard late. In the end, the stewards weren’t buying and there was no change. So we got neither help nor harm, and we are now 1-1-1 on the scoreboard, and down a couple bucks thanks to those darn stewards.
So I mentioned I haven’t been playing much, but a quick update to the scoreboard. I’m 1-1, took a big L, taken down as a winner. It was back before Christmas and I don’t even remember the horse and track – Fair Grounds or Turfway I think, but got banged as a 4/5 favorite that strolled.
A $23 win bet was the cost (why the weird number ? Just trying to round off a balance in my account.
So, we go from no change, and +27.20 to 1-1 and -14 overall. Already painful for having split the two results. This could get ugly . . .
Between the 9-5, and some family health issues, I haven’t had much time or gumption to play. The play back book is largely bereft of fresh trips.
I ran my preliminary end of year numbers, and will book a small four-figure win for calendar 2021.
The beginning of the year was far better than the end, and the pick 5 score in June proved to be the key swing of the year.
NYRABets has some nice ROI tracking built in to its account reports. A few notes below on my most profitable bets and tracks.
Place – 49 pct
Pick 5 – 24.5 pct
Pick 3 – 24.8 pct
My most profitable tracks were:
Tampa – 258 pct
fairgrounds – 219
Belmont – 10.1
One business man I work with on a local board says “in god we trust – all others bring data.”
I don’t believe any of the above is the gospel, but good indicators. Belmont has long been my favorite track to play; Tampa saw a ton of my action last spring, and this says I should play the Fairgrounds more than I have. Saratoga was probably surprisingly bad (-50 pct overall) – apparently had no feel there this year. (Those were the track with significant action. Longchamps was wildly profitable but that was a random one-off action play).
The place ROI tells me my playback strategy continues to be viable. And the pick 5 and pick 3 numbers are largely the product of keying those playbacks. ✅
Looking back to last years resolutions , the 100 playback challenge was a fail, only in that I didn’t get 100 tracked. It was profitable through 65-70 when I just didn’t have the time to track them all.
I will be blanking the playbacks list to start fresh for 2022 as the well is pretty dry. It peaked out at about 220 horses this summer.
2022 has began with a bang, as one of the last viable playbacks, Surveillance, scored at the Fairgrounds and I caught him win and place, and the double into him.
Put me down for 2-2 for the year, and getting nearly 8-1 on Surveillance made for a tidy profit.
Turfhandicapper.com 