What a baffling group for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

My first impression;  Not the most stellar crop of three year olds.

Second impression:  It’s been a war of attrition.

Most of the major contenders have a knock on them, including the choices I’ll play.   I’m going to tread lightly in the win pool, and try to bunch up a tri ticket that could pay boxcars.

Top choice:  McCraken

I think his Blue Grass was sneaky-good.  I don’t think that the horse was wound tight, as the Derby was the goal all along.  He encountered trouble, got race rode, checked, taken back, made a middle move, and flattened out.  I’m willing to look at the positives – was handy in traffic, and will chalk the middle move up as a fitness move.  Looked good in training this week.

Second Choice: Always Dreaming

Very little to knock from the Florida Derby.  Has been tearing up the track in training, though a bit keen. Has the pedigree to get the distance.  Has the right style.

Third Choice:  Classic Empire

Cream of the Crop as a 2 year old, overcame a number of woes to get back to the Arkansas Derby and win.  Can get the distance, and appears to be a hard trier.  On the other hand, he’s a straight up nut case, and had a number of physical problems.  Will use defensively

Don’t Want Him To Beat Me:  Irish War Cry

I didn’t think his Wood was that good.  But he beat up Classic Empire.  Looked good when not pressed.  But he’ll be pressed.  Motion has done it before, looks great in training.  Will use defensively.

Wouldn’t Shock Me:  Gormley

Rounded into form for the Santa Anita Derby, seems to have the right style, but speed figs and came home time were slow. Mastery was the best horse in Cali and possibly the best 3 yo, so I don’t fault him for running behind him.  On the other hand, Shirreffs has done it before, and who should he be afraid of in this group.

Here’s My Bomb:  Sonneteer

Fits stylewise to clunk up late for a piece of the pie, and gets Desormeaux, who’ll give a good, paint-the-rail ride and give him a chance to get there.  Maiden.  Everybody else likes him.  So will there be value ?

Not Out of It:  Irap, Tapwrit, Gunnevera

Again, wouldn’t be a huge shock.  Hard to endorse any of them on top, but I think could offer some value.  If I like McCraken and Taprwit, I can’t brush off Irap, who should get the distance and will be a trier.  Tapwrit was basically in a paid workout in Blue Grass.  Wide, safe, mild middle move.  Gunnevara, could clunk up and get a piece.

This is the group I will use (I’m content to let others beat me, or don’t think they can), now I just need to build the tickets.

$1 tri–  McCraken w Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Irap, Gormley w those plus Gunnevera, Tapwrit, Sonneteer

$0.50 tri — McCraken, Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Gormley w McCraken, Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Gormley w those, Irap, Gunnevera, Tapwrit, Sonneteer

$2 Exactas-–  McCracken w / Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Irish War Cry, Irap, Gormley

Reverse Exacta for $1

Good luck everyone, and enjoy the day ! If we cash a couple of these, the Makers Mark is on me  . . .