Derby Thoughts – Jan. 24

Lecomte

Instilled Regard repeated his effort from the Sham, stalked from post 10 and worked out a good trip from  outside post.   His result flatters McKinzie and Solomini.   Snapper Sinclair turned in a good effort dueling for the lead and holding on late.  Not sure if he ultimately stays on dirt and the Derby Trail, but probably earned another shot on dirt with the effort.   Watch the replay. Earned a 92 Beyer.

Smarty Jones

Mourinho had everything his own way on the front end in the Smarty Jones, and won easily.  Earned a beyer of 99, but I suspect he’s a cut below Baffert’s California Division right now, but the pedigree is there to get the distance, and at some point may need to prove he can rate.  Fully admit I may be underrating him at this point and is eligible to move up.  Nothing behind him is of any interest to me for the derby trail at this point.

Jerome

Firenze Fire (85 beyer) was an impressive winner in the Jerome, but his speed figure says to me that he’s a cut above the elite’s of the division, and visually he strikes me as an excellent one-turn horse.  My gut says look for him in the Jerkens/King’s Bishop at Saratoga later this summer.

New Shooter: World of Trouble earned a 97 beyer and nearly set a track record in a visually impressive performance in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.   The Tampa races have turned out some legit triple crown trail horses in recent years (Tapwrit last year).  His pedigree looks to be more speed than distance to me, but I’m not a pedigree-ologist, though I am interested to see how he stretches out.

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