I’ve tried to look at ways to beat Justify in the Belmont Stakes, and listened to the noise about his “declining form,” but I’ll make a couple of counter-arguments for you to consider.

The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness were both run on some of the sloppiest, worst tracks in modern history, and the Preakness was run in a fog belt.

How’s this for an exercise:

1. Consider “What if we throw out those two races?” – well, Justify still has three straight 100 plus beyers, including the standout mark from the Santa Anita Derby. (Of course, Justify HAS run two races, and expended some gas from his proverbial tank, but when you consider his stout structure, and the two solid works turned in, there seems little evidence that he’s over the top.)
2. Are the Derby and Preakness speed figures accurate? Given the varying nature of the super sloppy tracks, is it not possible that the Preakness number could be a couple clicks higher, and/or the Derby number could be a couple clicks lower – which simply would show a horse maintaining his form, rather than losing it?

Food for thought  . . . . picks coming soon.