I have some opinions I feel very strong about today. I won’t bury the lead. I’m singling Justify on the end of p4 and Pick 5 play. He’s the best horse. He has the right style. I don’t think his Preakness was nearly “as bad” as some would lead you to beleive. I think he has an 80-85 percent chance to win the race, which accounts for unusual trouble, or simply tiring late at the end of this stretch.

Truth be told I already played Justify earlier this week at -110 in order to create a bit of leverage going into the race. If he is more than even money I will consider doubling down.

In vertical play, I will actually be dismissive of Hofburg, pending what I see good Samaritan do in the Met mile… I will use Restoring Hope, Blended Citizen, Bravazo and Tenfold underneath in exotic play

Here is some of the things I like… Race 2 – the Easy Goer… I was very high on Mask early in the Triple Crown trail… Last is very forgivable in the Churchhill slop

Race 3, I don’t have a clue… Very good field here

Race 4 – The Acorn – I think Monomoy Girl is an absolute stand out anywhere she goes… But if she’s going to get beat, this is the spot where she could off of a very hard effort last time out… More than 50% of my play will go through her, but I’d take a look at Moonshine Memories Caledonia Road and Talk Veuve To Me as other options

Race 6 – the Brooklyn… I will be taking a shot with Pletcher’s Outplay… Outplay was working very strongly with Todd’s triple crown contenders… And I will forgive the last in the swamp at Churchhill. The numbers and results appear that Hopportunity may have lost a step or two from last season, which I do not think is unexpected at age 7. War Story looms a big threat here as well

No strong opinion on race 6 – The Jaipur – I actually think handicapping tear for sprints is one of my weaker spots… Excited to see Disco Partner, who set a record here a few years ago

Race 7 – The Woody Stephens … I won’t say you’ll get a price, but World of Trouble was unbelievably impressive two races ago in the Pasco at Tampa… May hold a little bit of value, though I think you need to use several including Strike Power, Promises Fulfilled and Tabulator

Race eight – Just a Game – is another one that wide open with the modeled pace scenario… I’ve heard a lot about Lull, going to the lead, but I am almost worried I’ve heard too much about it… I think you have to use many or single here, I will likely single A Raving Beauty, Who has a slight edge on Numbers, and should be close to whatever pays emerges

Race 9 – The Met Mile- I believe is a chance to get value… Mind your Biscuits has never won a mile and I don’t want any part of him here I will give Bolt D’Oro one more chance and I’ll also look at McCracken who I believe really will want this one turn mile. Bee Jersey is the horse to beat and will be on the lead

Race 10 the Manhattan, looks like a great race with a lot of shots. I will be going deep in here, though if Sadler‘s jewelry is close to the 8to1 morning Price I’ll be aboard.

Looks like a great day for the Belmont Stakes, and a great day to make money!