I’m as excited as the rest of you for the start of Saratoga this weekend.  The next six weeks will play a big role in the outcome of my handicapping year.

With that in mind, here’s a primer with angles that both new and experienced players should appreciate.  (And remember, rules are made to be broken).

• Outside sweepers and closers at 7 furlongs
• If the turf dries out later in the meet, speed holds better
• Outside posts (9 +) are deadly on the inner turf.   Horses have to significantly outrun the field to win here.  But don’t forget them underneath  . . .
• George Weaver usually has a few live runners and a go-to rider.  Last year it was Santana.  These hit at a high percentage with a ridiculous ROI
• Use the board on Todd’s 2 yo’s on debut; those that are odds on win at a very high percentage; those that are not well bet at a much lower rate. They know.  Useful in the horizontal sequences.
• Pick your spots.   There are about 60 races a week, and there will be 60 more next week.  Don’t unload your whole bankroll the first week, or it might be a long six weeks.
• If a horse went 48 in a workout at Finger Lakes, he’s a serious horse.
• NY Maidens win back at a good percentage in their first state bred N1X – some of those groups aren’t too salty
• I’m keeping an eye on Pablo Fragoso.  He was the “king of the last race” a few years back, seemed to win the last race of the day at a high percentage.  Have always liked him as a grass rider and gets horses to outrun their odds.
• Graveyard of favorites (see story):  Since Man O’War was upset by Upset, favorites and champions have lost at a higher rate at the spa than elsewhere.  On average, favorites win about 5 percent less often at Saratoga than elsewhere.  I attribute this to two things – often times the 3 yo’s come in tired from the Triple Crown trail, and that many owners and trainers point particularly to this meet.  Everyone wants to win at Saratoga, so even horses that may seem to be a bit questionable on paper have likely been pointed to this spot, so you also get many live overlays here.
• Exacta; Trifecta; Average exacta and trifecta payouts at the Spa are some of the most generous you will find – don’t overlook these plays.
• Droppers:  Keep an eye on class droppers – as mentioned above, owners want to get a win at the Spa, and particularly late in the meet you will see some big drops – I don’t view these as suspicious – certain owners WANT their horse to get claimed away; they collect the winning check; the claim price, and don’t have to overwinter the horse after having their fun at the summer meet.

If you have a favorite angle that you’d like to share, let me know.  Can’t wait to get there on Saturday for my first bout of the year. I’ll be hitting the Shake Shack for a burger with hot peppers, and we’ll see you at the Jim Dandy bar  . . .