My super contest math checks out… Would be sitting in the top 40 in the contest right now (if I plug a 3-2 week in for the one I missed). A perfect 5-0 week last week.

32 –16–2 on the season, and that’s the high-water mark of the year.

this week’s plays

Cincinnati -3

New York Giants +6

Oakland +10.5

Green Bay +3.5

Tennessee +6.5

Commentary: Tennessee is on an interesting ride, and gets a significant conference game against Houston, which will be an emotional spot for Mike Vrabel’s guys on the heels of a bad loss to Indy. Houston owner Bob McNair‘s death, makes this interesting spot for Houston as well, though given his “inmates running the prison” comments of a few years ago and wondering if there’s no love lost there.

Green Bay nearly fits the math model, and is in a back-to-the-wall spot where they can keep themselves in the playoff picture. May be a do-or-die spot for Coach McCarthy.

Oakland comes east, and faces a resurgent ravens team with young quarterback Lamar Jackson, but getting 10 1/2 is too many

Leans would be the Jets +9 1/2, as well as Arizona +12 1/2 both math model qualifiers

Patriots in an interesting spot off of the break, but with Brady on the injury list, as well as having a game looming with the Vikings next week. Feels like a close patriots win, and low-scoring. Arizona gets the Chargers while the Chargers have Pittsburgh on the horizon next week, good flat spot for AC to catch them.

On the horse racing front, I gave War of Will a call in my breeders cup preview, I was just a couple of weeks to early as he won today ….