What seemed a very evenly matched field in the Kentucky Derby developed a bit more intrigue with the defection of Omaha Beach.  For me, that makes the race between Game Winner and Improbable, who I will work with in both multi race and trifecta plays.

This is handicapped with at wet track anticipated, and a typical Derby Day slight speed/presser bias.  Obviously if the track shows totally different signs during the day, you and I may adjust as necessary.

The Pick:  Improbable has won over the Churchill course, and was getting a lot of the overwinter buzz as a possible derby favorite.   But his Rebel was an audible with Santa Anita Racecourse’s problems this spring, and he looked just a touch short and was kept out of trouble all the way around.   Watching his Arkansas Derby, my first thought was that he may not be able to get the derby distance of 1-1/4 miles, but after a couple views of the replay, I think he may simply have been short.  His race reminded me of Good Magic’s Fountain of Youth last year, and that there may be one more screw for Baffert to tighten going into the Derby.  He also ran well on a wet track, as is expected for the weekend.  Full disclosure, I hold a small future wager on Improbable from Pool 1 back in November, and used him in future pool exactas.

I give Improbable a slight nod over Game Winner, mostly based on how well he has looked at Churchill during the morning works, though I expect you couldn’t shine a flashlight between them coming down the stretch.

Narrowly beaten by Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby, a review of Game Winner’s Rebel and Santa Anita Derby both give the impression that he was being kept in the clear and out of trouble simply to get around and get the points to get into the Kentucky Derby.  It is well possible that his best race of the cycle will be the Kentucky Derby and that we haven’t seen his best yet, and he’s proven around two turns at Churchill Downs having won the BC Juvenile on that course.   He may be more of a grinding type, (albeit a very good grinder) he doesn’t have any proven wet track form, though the pedigree would indicate he could handle it, and there hasn’t been the jump forward in Beyer’s that one might hope for as a three-year old.  While that could come on Saturday, there is just enough evidence for me to give the slight nod to improbable.  I’ll use them both on top in my spread trifectas.

Using underneath:

Tacitus, Roadster, Maximum Security – Tier 1

Cashed on Tacitus in Tampa, and the Wood.  His speed numbers are just a bit shy, and will likely be just far enough back that trip could be an issue.  Wouldn’t be a huge surprise on top, but I’ll take a stand against in the top slots.    Roadster matched strides with Game Winner in the Santa Anita derby – he may have already fired his best shot, and Mike Smith got off to ride Omaha Beach.  I think he could come running for a piece with a clean trip.  Maximum Security is a weird horse to me, and I will use him defensively.  I could have won the Florida Derby loose on the lead with the pace he got away with on speed favoring track, so that’s a strong indication against.  His speed figures are among the best in the field, which is an indicator for.   He could be the rabbit for Game Winner, which is an indicator against.  Could get loose on the lead again, an indicator for.  Servis seems to do his best work in Fla and NJ, which is an indicator against.   Will use defensively in the place and show slots.

Code of Honor, By My Standards, Tax , War of Will – Tier 2

This is my “passing tired horses late” group.  By My Standards has been the buzz of the workouts.  But maybe too much to ask to take a fourth straight big step forward on the Beyer scale.  Code of Honor ran decent against the bias in the Florida Derby, Shug brought Orb through Florida a few years back, so he rates a look, but I can’t get him on top with his speed figures.  Tax has been close to Tacitus, hearsay is that Gargan said he might want turf, and turfers tend to run well at Churchill (see Kingdom, Animal) which my sources say is due to the clay base.   War of Will was doing great prior to the Lousiana Derby, then hit a rough patch.  Has trained like a monster at Churchill, as he did for the BC last fall.  Drew the deadly one post, and the Beyers say he’s not fast enough, however, I’m willing to take a stab underneat that he breaks fast, and hangs on for a small piece.  If he doesn’t he’s nowhere, and I’ll look for a better price on him down the road.

For the Record:

5, 16 with 5, 16, 7, 8 with 5,16,7, 8, 13, 2, 3, 17, 1,

That’s a $42 ticket for a dollar, and I’ll likely reverse the 2 and 3 slots for $0.50 as well (or whatever your budget may be)

Exactas with the top two slots.

Small across the board play on #5 Improbable

Good luck, and enjoy the races !