(For the record, the was written on the Monday or Tuesday after the Kentucky Derby, but never got posted … I think the thoughts are still valid as I am loving this 3 year old season and will likely refer back to the Derby regularly)

Had em surrounded.

It’s easy to feel that way after the Kentucky Derby. My key horse Improbable, ran essentially the race expected, but was unable to make a move in the stretch over take the lead and finished fifth (or sixth, without the DQ). Enough has, and will be written about the DQ, without my opinion added in.

If you bet the Kentucky Derby on an annual basis, you’re going to be wrong more than you’re going to be right. However when you are right you need to make them pay you, and capitalize on the dead money in the pools. I was able to do that on Saturday cashing the Oaks exacta, $439 for a one dollar bet, and picking up the daily double into that race as well.

I barely had Country House on any tickets, and never in a million years had them winning the race. Given the mud, and the bump, I am very willing to chalk this one up to random chance. We had a similar scenario with several races in the early 2000s where a bunch of long shots cashed in the derby. In the scores of analysis I read and listened to prior to the race, the nicest thing I hear about Country House was that he’d get the distance, and would be running late. I dropped him in the three spot on one trifecta ticket, defensively, but that was it.

You Are What Your Record Says You Are

There was a distinct first flight at the finish line, a group I expect to take turns beating each other as spring turns to summer.

1. Maximum Security was the fastest horse. The Beyer speed figures hold up as the most important number in handicapping, and you just have to look back to that to find the winner. Despite the DQ has stamped himself as the best of the crop. Can I make him the Haskell favorite now ?

2. Is Improbable simply a grinder? Hasn’t taken the critical jump forward to get to the top of the level

3. Game Winner got a tough trip. Master Fencer to his inside veered out at the start, Game Winner dropped to 18th in the field, then went 7 wide turning for home, (a move that NEVER wins at Churchill) and had Tacitus veering out into Game Winner in the stretch. Trakus had him running more than 100 feet more than the winner. Add in the trouble and he’s likely to be the wiseguy favorite in Baltimore.

4. War of Will is a real racehorse. The connections didn’t whine about the 1 post, gunned him out and got away clean, took the worst of the bumping and finished a creditable fifth.

5. Code of Honor absolutely skipped over the slop

6. Country House loved the slop too, I’m going to demand he do it on a dry track too

7. Plus Que Parfait isn’t far behind the best of this group. Would love to know what happened in Louisiana

8. I think Tacitus moves up on a dry track. Was going up and down late. Already have him winning Belmont with a dry track.