2019 Belmont Stakes Recap and Notes

Some days are better than others.  My top pick of Tacitus did not quite work out as planned.  He ran well, but was hung wide all the way around and finished second.   The Trakus data below backs this up:

Belmont Trakus(Screengrab from NYRA.com)

Interesting to note, Tacitus ran 65 feet more than the winner, Sir Winston, and got the final ¼ quicker than anyone except Master Fencer.  Had that result been reversed, I’d have cashed very well.  Instead, it was just a 20 percent profit based on my normal win-place margin.

Several things I am pleased with on the weekend, was recognizing the track bias on Thursday, and using it to advantage in a couple of spots Friday and early Saturday.

I believe the bias relaxed slightly later in the day – the track appeared to be watered heavily (I am NOT an expert in track maintenance) mid-day, and was more favorable to closers than it was early.  Of course, it was classy horses trying to close, and speed still held as Mitole won the met mile.

Mitole showed his class, doing something he hadn’t done, winning at mile, and doing so while contesting the pace, and holding off McKinzie and Thunder Snow.   McKinzie took the worst of the trip, and should have won with better racing luck.  He’s due for a big win somewhere along the way.  I think its interesting that Mckinzie really needed the Met Mile to stamp his stallion credentials, despite a Grade 1 on the resume.   This will lead to my “Most Important Races” post coming soon.  (Hint:  Two of them were run Saturday).

Secondly, I downgraded my use of War of Will late.  During the run up, I heard just enough buzz about the horse “getting his energy back” and “doing better” that led me to believe the Preakness effort may have done him in.  Will danced every dance of the prep season, with three races in Louisiana in the run up to the Derby, and had all rights to be over the top after peak efforts in the Derby and Preakness.   I think the connections felt the need to run him to help stamp his stallion card, hoping they could point to a pair of triple crown wins.   He’ll still be looking for a big grade 1 later this year.  I also included a bit of Sir Winston in multi-race and exacta plays, figuring that he was indeed a bit of an insurance policy for the Casse barn with Will off his best.   To my eye in the post parade, War Of Will looked as though he had lost weight and condition since the Preakness, which made him a straight play against before entering my final tickets.

After big scores on the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness, Belmont weekend I ended up running in place, hitting some spot plays, but unable to really nail a multi-race sequence, or a big exacta, which were my preferred plays of the weekend.

Time to start building the playback book for Saratoga !

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