Pray for peace but plan for war, the old saying goes.

That seems to fit these three semi-idle weeks between the final preps and the breeders cup. I have two theories on this period of time.

The first is chaos theory – when you look at the lower level stakes races there’s a reason that they are what we think they are – horses not ready to make the breeders cup.

For both of you who read regularly, it will be no surprise that I am a semi-chalk player. A lot of my handicapping is based on what is most likely to happen, with a dose of trip notes and value bets mixed in.

I lost my shirt at Keeneland last weekend, whiffing on that late Pick 4 … yeah that’s right, the Golden Sombrero … 0-4, when all the races came back with winners in the $10-50 range.

But really, shouldn’t I have expected that ? There’s a reason these horses aren’t preparing for the BC – they are inconsistent by definition. They SHOULD be taking turns beating each other up.

I’ll test this next fall – but I think you need to plan for chaos here – if you’re going to play the picks (4-5-6) you will want to expand your bankroll and go deep in a few races, and find spots to bet against favorites- who’s over the top, who needs a race and look for the hidden positives with up and comers or deep back class. I suspect the hits will be harder to come by, but when we connect it will be with a bomb (and a big result!)

If you’re not going to expand and play against favorites, better to fold your cash over and wait for the juicier spots in the BC.

My second theory here is to look to cherrypick the races surrounding BC weekend.

Tom’s D’Etat was the first of these yesterday in the Fayette at Keeneland. He was the classiest horse in the race, and had a trip to play back to from Saratoga. Al Stall gave him some time off from a foot problem, which had the added effect of a nice break off a couple strong efforts at Saratoga, and Stall almost always places his horses really well. Jing jing with win-place bets, and Mr Freeze was a very logical horse to complete the exacta when learning that Romans thought he had him right, thought about the BC, but opted for the softer spot here in trying to build some confidence in the horse.

This week I also look for those horses who have worked well with their well-meant workout partners headed to the BC. Bob Baffert had one of these a couple years ago at Del Mar (the name escapes me, older horse, outworked his BC horse) who rolled on Thursday or Friday. There is sometime more certainty in the form of the early races on BC dates than the stakes. It doesn’t matter what race you cash your big ticket in, as long as you cash !

The pray for peace part of the lesson is to fold your money when you don’t have an opinion. My bad weekend at Keeneland was the result of boredom betting on a slow day. I’ve been busy with my 9-5 and the playback book is a little skinny right now. The dough I dumped should have been recycled into Tom’s D’Etat and a couple others earlier this week.

Plan for war is prepping for the BC, much like your other big festival dates. There is a lot of workout information available right now, and a great chance to watch works with expert commentary and learn a little bit more about reading them yourself. I also enjoy the challenge of bunkering down with two days of PP’s to really sort through the card. I go much deeper into paper handicapping these days then I generally do – as I lean so heavily on playbacks day-to-day.

I plan to post my opinions on the BC races. Will get them up as soon as I can after the post draws, and remember to be aware to developing track biases on race day.