Breeders Cup is finally here, and as I purport to be a semi-public handicapper, it’s an obligation to publish picks. I’ve spent a lot of time on the Friday card, and I actually don’t have ton of strong opinions.

Breeders Cup is a great opportunity to come up with a big score, with big fields, and big pools, but that is most likely to happen when you have a horse that you think can be an upsetter at a healthy price.

Otherwise, you can get caught in the spread-spread-spread trap in the pick 3-4-5-6, and somehow the next horse you left off comes in WAY too often. So I suggest taking a stand where you have strong opinion and the right price. Being right two or three times on these two cards can really be day, week, or month makers.

General thoughts – given the way the main track has played at Santa Anita – deep, dull, and slow – I will give a slight edge on the main track to horses that have been training at SA for a while now. Also, in general I think the track is slightly speed favoring, but also mostly favors the classiest and fittest horses – if you aren’t at the top of your game, you’ll fade late.

I don’t think the euro contingent is the strongest ever. I generally will use them defensively rather than offensively in my plays (this is where we end up spreading more than we’d perhaps like to).

On to the plays.

Friday
Race 1 – Marathon – #5 Campaign may be the most likely winner on the card. Classier on figs than the rest of the field, 2-3 at Santa Anita and loves going long. This trip is made for him, just would like to see him sit reasonably close (5 lengths) as he dropped way out the back in his last couple. Gotta think Sadler has been thinking about this spot for him for a long time.

Race 4 – Golden State Juvenile – We’re likely to find a good horse or two in this field, almost like everyone who’s not in the BC sending out their Sunday best. We found Improbable on the undercard last year . . . . I have a trip-note play back on #4 Dapper, who, while second to Raging Whiskey, was much the best of the rest and geared down late, so has every right to improve on the speed figure. Watch out for Cali Dude, Chipper and Rookie Mistake as possible exacta partners.

Race 5 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – One of my stronger opinions, I like #9 Four Wheel Drive on top. Stalked a fast pace and drew off without the stick in the last. Wesley Ward has a stacked hand with #7 Kimari here as well. Will use #1 Chimney Rock, #3 Another Miracle, and #10 A’Ali in exotics, and may dig deeper in the Euros as well
Race 6 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf – I am void of a strong opinion here. No official play. #12 Arizona has been well hyped coming in, and may well be the best. I might dabble as a tri key. #5 Vitology has excuses from the last two, and was the only horse gaining ground in the Bourbon, and is eligible to improve. I can’t really separate the three horses coming out of the Pilgrim. Structor got the best trip that day, though I probably slightly prefer Our Country to get a better trip this time, and Andesite made the running and held on well. I can also make cases for Decorated Invader, Graceful Kitten and Peace Achieved, so I may just fold it over and trip note this one for valuable wagers down the road. I think it’s a very evenly matched group.

Race 7 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies – I’m going to land on the home team here, with Baffert and #6 Bast. Reports had her at about 85 percent last time, and you’d expect to be ready to roll here. Of course, no one brings out the money to the window like Baffert, so I’ll watch the board and expect 3-1 or less. Higher than that would leave some room for doubt. I was impressed with Wicked Whisper’s Frizette, an easy hand-ride win, which got a good figure. British Idiom’s figures fit, but it was a stumblefest behind her in the Alcibiades, so I’ll need some value, and Donna Veloce may well be the real deal, but I just can’t bet a one-big-figure maiden winner at a short price in this situation. Defensively perhaps in multi race scenarios.

Race 8 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Another one where I don’t have a strong opinion. Too much European form to digest, and that group likely stronger than the Americans.

Race 9 – Breeders Cup Juvenile – Is Bob Baffert really going to get beat at home ? # 6 Eight Rings and #1 Dennis Moment should vie for favoritism. Dennis’ Moment has gotten all the buzz, but he’s shipping in, and Dale Romans could enter a goat and tell you he’s got a great chance to win the race. I don’t the Dennis is a goat, (nor the G.O.A.T.) so I’ll stick with the home team, and use Dennis defensively in multirace plays. Eight Rings is flattered by the performances of Nucky and Fore Left, who both have come back to win. Scabbard is a former play back trip note horse, and eligible to be in the mix here, and while I will not use Wrecking Crew on top, I may try to slide him underneath in some exotic combinations. I think he probably got some fitness out of the Del Mar Futurity, looked like a horse who wants more ground and will grind away at it. He has gotten a good break, and reports have him filling out and looking good this week. We’d take 20-1 underneath.

I’m chalking out more than I’d like to on this card. Feel like I will just be dipping a toe in today, if I make a strike it will likely be in the middle of the card. Also, keep an eye on how the track plays. Track maintenance can be little funky on big race days. I don’t expect it to be too souped up, as Santa Anita cannot afford public breakdowns this weekend, but the clockers have said it’s playing a touch faster in the mornings. Act quickly if you find a bias, and I like to watch the post parades carefully as well. They are all going to look good, as these are some of the best horses in the world, but if you see one you already liked shining like a new penny, they can tip themselves as well. Safe racing to all and enjoy the weekend. Will post some Saturday thoughts when I have a chance.