Race 4 – Filly and Mare Sprint – There is speed to burn in this race, and I can find a knock on almost every runner.  #1 Covfefe is the 2-1 favorite and drew the rail.  If she runs her best race, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat, but she’s been an in-and-outer from a speed fig perspective, and Cox is 0-for-Santa Anita.  Also draws the rail, never a plus at 7 furlongs, and did all her training at Churchill.  Come Dancing has been visually impressive, but all the speed figures say she hasn’t been fast enough, does her best running outside, and has had some break problems.  Should be able to sit just behind the speed if she breaks, then will be trip dependent.   Bellafina has never been fast enough and has been off form.  Selcourt draws outside, but has just one line on the PP that shows any ability to be anything other than a need-the leader.  Dawn The Destroyer, Spiced Perfection and Lady Ninja aren’t fast enough on figs, but could benefit from a speed melt down.   I’m going to keep an eye on how Churchill shippers handle the track on Friday and Saturday’s first race.   I’m going to swallow hard and make Covfefe the uninspired pick, but will do so while messing with Spiced Perfection and Dawn the Destroyer keyed underneath and try to hit the tri with a narrow combination and a bigger bet size.

Race 5 – Turf Sprint – It’s hard to separate this field, but I am landing on Eddie Haskell as a pretty cold play.  Five furlongs is totally his jam, he’s at home, and should be in the first flight turning for home.  Honestly, none of these would surprise me to win.  Stormy Liberal, Imprimis and Leinster underneath.

Race 6 – Dirt Mile – Interesting field, and a bunch that could win.  Omaha Beach is a likely and deserving favorite, but to take anything less than 5-2 seems folly, and I do have bounce concerns off the hard comeback effort.  I’ll let him prove me wrong.  I think we will get that price on #2 Improbable, who comes in off a pair of bullet works at Santa Anita, and probably is better at 7f to 1-1/16 than at the longer distances.  He’ll be forward, and and the speed fig from the Shared Belief is good enough to get it done here.  Blue Chipper is drawing morning raves and gets Prat, and if you dig deep enough in the archives you’ll find some love for Snapper Sinclair, who’s been bunkered down in Cali with the Asmussen contingent he’s there to try to get a piece, will key 3^rd and 4^th in tri and super to try to fill it out.

Race 7 – Filly and Mare Turf – hard to play against Sistercharlie.  May use a little Vaslika as a B in the picks.

Race 8 – BC Sprint – I am a straight Mitole junkie, been on him since the maiden win.  Has the heart of a champion, can lead or stalk, and has been encamped at SA since early October.  Asmussen is giving him every chance to win.   I’m likely to toss Shancelot all together, will use the closers underneath – Catalina Cruiser, Whitmore and Engage.   Maybe a B Shancelot in the picks, but I think there’s a chance he’s ready to go the wrong way.

Race 9 – BC Mile – Always one of the most intriguing races, I’ll use Circus Maximus, and Got Stormy as a’s, and Uni, Lord Glitters, and El Tormenta, who may just be getting good at the right time as B’s.

Race 10 – Distaff – Midnight Bisou is a clear A, and the most likely winner.  Paradise Woods looks outstanding in the works, but is as likely to be first as last, given gate problems, mental issues, inside draw, etc.  A very defensive B.  Dunbar Road as a B.  Blue Prize underneath.

Race 11 – The Turf – This is Bricks and Mortar’s race to lose, but the price may be unplayable straight.  Arklow, Old Persian, and Anthony Van Dyk all are likely reasonably priced alternatives.

Race 12 – The Classic – I don’t think we are going to get 3-1 on McKinzie at post time  . . . . but if we do, it will be go time for me.  He’ll be a single at the end of pick sequences as well.  If he runs his best race, he’s the winner.  I can toss Math Wizard, Seeking the Soul and Owendale, but none of the others would be an overwhelming surprise.  Take a look at Vino Rosso’s PP’s and tell me what top-class Grade 1 winner he has beaten  . . . . that’s ok, I’ll wait.   Given Code of Honor was neck and neck with Vino in the last, I’ll discount those two as well.    I do think War of Will could take a big step forward, but that may not be enough to win.

Mitole is my strongest opinion.   Improbable feels clever, but given the Baffert factor, that price alone probably won’t be enough to make a score.  Most looking forward to building the tri and super tickets in the Filly and Mare Sprint, and can probably build an interesting enough late pick 4 ticket.

I’m actually a bit disappointed to find that I can’t find a big price to fall in love with over the two days.  I will wade a bit deeper than normal in exotics, but this will not be a blow-out the bankroll situation for me.    One key reminder is to be sure to be taking notes during the races, and don’t get so frustrated if you don’t connect with your wagers — there will be many good wagering opportunities on the playback, pending trips, and any biases that emerge.   Del Mar a couple of years ago was extremely productive to find horses to move up or fade based on a speed bias.

And speaking of bias, I always reserve the right to adjust my play based on what we observe – and you should too.

Good luck, and safe trips to all !