Well #2020 applies here, as the jumbled up triple crown trail has opened and closed many doors for contenders. #1A Charlatan is injured and #2 Nadal has been retired. Maxfield was set to go to #1 on the list, bit then abruptly was injured.
A less-than-impressive group will be gathering this weekend for the shortened 1-1/8th mile Belmont Stakes, which will hit leadoff on this year’s triple crown trail. This however, is still a Kentucky Derby ranking, so we look a couple months down the road, and what happens this weekend will inform our next rankings.
The clear-cut number 1 horse at this point is Tiz The Law. He appears to tower over this Belmont Field this weekend and is anywhere from 6/5 in the morning line to -190 off track.
- Honor A.P. – The Santa Anita Derby was just the return race we wanted to see. Moved past Authentic nicely in the stretch, and would appear to relish the further strtechout. He’s very close to Tiz the Law in my mind.
- Authentic – His Santa Anita Derby wasn’t terrible, and may have been a productive prep race. I’m not sure that 9 furlongs isn’t his limit, but with a better pace scenario he’s still a major contender and favored over those below in H2H
- King Guillermo – Still hasn’t done anything wrong, waiting to see where he shows up next.
- Mark my Thousand Words – he resurfaced with a bullet 58 and change workout at Santa Anita last week. He has a pedigree that’s screaming to go long, the last race is a throwout with a stumble at the start. I saw him listed at 100-1 at Circa in Las Vegas and I’m about to hop on a plane.
Honorable mentions include Sole Volante, who could move way up with a big Belmont – the one turn should suit him perfectly, Basin, who needs some slight improvement to be among the best, and Ete Indien, who I believe will win some races this summer, but may ultimately need shorter than 1-1/4 or grass. I have been hopeful that we would see Structor on the dirt, but he’s still only in what appears to be light training, though there is still enough time for a 2-preps to the Derby campaign. The last one I will mention is Gouverneur Morris, who’s bred for the 10 furlongs and could possibly out grind whoever is left come September.
Belmont Stakes card picks will be posted by Saturday morning.
Turfhandicapper.com 