Win Candidates:  Tiz the Law, Honor AP

Don’t be Too Shocked if they Win Candidates: Thousand Words, Authentic, NY Traffic, King Guillermo

So it’s finally time to Run for The Roses.  Where has a three-month delay gotten us ?   About where I expected to be anyway.   Tiz the Law and Honor AP have been on the radar since their 2 YO debuts.  Carefully managed campaigns for both have put them in the gate as the decisive favorites for Saturday.

Who we’ve lost:  Dennis Moment, Maxfield, Independence Hall, Nadal, Charlatan, Uncle Chuck, Structor, Ete Indien, Wells Bayou all seemed to be in the mix at one point or another. 

The Futures:  I am really pleased with my future wagers entering the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  My play is largely wrapped around Honor AP, Tiz The Law, Thousand Words, with some Authentic and King Guillermo wrapped in.

I have win bets on Thousand Words at 15-1 and 47-1.   While he merits being about the fifth choice, I think the 47-1 is probably double to triple the odds on Saturday.   A solid position.

I have several exacta’s with the two favorites that pay $298 for a dollar wagered.  That seems a strong position.

Of course, if we don’t cash them, you can’t eat value.

So my derby play will focus on trying to connect on a tri and/or a super, which won’t be retirement money should TTL win, but the large pools will still make attractive.

TTL is the clear (and 3/5) favorite here.  The horse has been in form all year, and ran lights out in the Travers.   But given the far outside post, and a running style that wants to be mid-pack forward, he’s going to have to use a bit early, try to tuck in, and not get hung wide both turns.  Also given that the Travers is a big goal for the stable, I just have to fade Tiz the Law a bit off of the big race.  Another jump forward seems improbable at this point, and the need for a trip plus the odds will make him a race-day play-against on top for me.   He will be used liberally on tickets.

Honor AP will be my top pick, and would be a win bet at 6/1 or higher.  I think this horse has been very carefully campaigned to peak in this spot.  He’s versatile enough to drop back and get position and will come with his run late.   He retains top jock Mike Smith.  Honor AP will also be a trifecta key for me.   Needs to step forward off of what was an obvious prep in the Shared Belief, and his Beyer figures are right there with TTL.

Thousand Words is bred to run all day.  He’s a big-chested horse and a bit one paced.  I think he’ll go a bit with a good start, and projects to sit just behind the speed in a garden spot.  Can he win?   Maybe.  If he’s forward enough and grinds away he may be there at the end.  Big shot to hit the board.

Authentic has done little wrong in his career.  In the works, he looks tremendous physically.  He’s fast enough, but he draws the far outside post, will likely need to use early to lead or get position, and I have serious questions about the final 1/8^th.  He’s looked to be tiring in the Haskell and a couple of his preps.   I think 1-1/8 is his limit against this group.  He might surprise me, but I’ll only use underneath.

The King !   King Guillermo has taken a unique path to the derby off of 12 weeks laid off.   He has been training at Churchill for a few weeks.  He has tactical speed, and should get a garden trip inside.   I just can’t get him on top.  I think the lack of foundation could be a concern in getting the final ¼ mile.   Will use underneath.

NY Traffic has a shot to make a splash.  His Belmont and Haskell were both very good, he fits on figures and can likely get the distance.   He has a good race over the track in the Matt Winn, where he was 4 wide on both turns, only beaten a length to Maxfield, who’d figure a co-favorite here, and was game enough to hold off Pneumatic in that one and to nearly run down Authentic in the Haskell.  The wise guy in me would think about putting him on top, and pressed for an interesting longshot, this may be it.   A definite use for me.

The rest of them, I think are a largely undistinguished bunch.  Trip means the world here. Get a clean one, or a nice rail run and youre live.  Get jostled around early and a lot of dirt in your face, you’re dead.  I will package a few of these in the third spot in the tri – Enforceable, Attachment Rate, Winning Impression and Money Moves will get dropped in the three hole, on the big trainer, no shot on top angle.  I figure that they are here just to try to get a check, and or to meet the owners whims to be in the derby.  They have all been this route before, and I think all are ridden to hit the board.

Trifecta plays – total $130

16 w 6-10-15-17-18 w 3-7-13-14 = $50 for $2.50

16 w 6-10-15-17-18-3-7-13-14 w 6-10-15-17-18-3-7-13-14 = $36 for $0.50

6-10-15-17-18  w 16 w 3-7-13-14 = $20 for $1

6-10-15-16-17-18 w 16 – 17, w 6-10-15-16 -17-18 = $24 for $1