Well, after four long extra months, the Kentucky Derby is now in the books.
Authentic was not my top pick to win the Derby, but he was on my short list of horses that could win. I was surprised to see him re-break in the stretch as Tiz The Law drew even, as I thought Authentic would struggle to get the extra furlong based on both the Haskell and his Santa Anita Derby, where the wire couldn’t come soon enough. You can never write off Bob Baffert in big races, and he ships to both Kentucky and New York extremely well.
The scratches of King Guillermo and Thousand Words put a crimp on my leverage with derby futures. Futures win tickets on Thousand Words at 47-1 and 16-1 were shredded when he flipped in the paddock. The big fella was looking good, and scuttlebutt I have heard said that Bob actually preferred Thousand Words going into the race.
Anyway, plan B worked out ok for Baffert and myself. Among my derby futures were exactas with Authentic and Tiz The Law from February – which each paid $206 for a $2 wager. I had several of those in the back pocket, and turned a solid profit on both the totality of my Kentucky Derby Future Wagers and for the day. My Saturday wagering was not so rosy of its own accord – while most of the horses were logical, I played mostly pick sequences and managed to be about 1 horse not deep enough in all of them. The payouts were still fabulous for the winners, despite Churchill Downs announcing approximately 50 percent reduction in handle with no patrons on track.
I just missed on the Derby tri … again. Mr. Big News was not among those that I slotted underneath, and as seems typical – one horse always manages to blow up the triple. One of my back up tickets had the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th place horses. In hindsight, as well as Bret Calhoun’s runners ran on the weekend, he may have tipped himself. We will put that in the handicappers notebook for next year.
Our top pick, Honor A.P. Ran well enough, considering that he was knocked sideways out of the gate and trailed early. In a track that definitely leaned to speed, he was never making up enough ground to be better than fourth – but I think still showed he’s among the top group. Mike Smith said that Honor A.P. “wasn’t really grabbing the track,” which I think helps show why Mike is so popular. He always has a complimentary excuse for the horses that don’t run their best.
After the top four, not particularly impressed with any of the group. Will look for them only in minor spots.
The rest of my weekend was productive, with some playbacks who ran very well, and a couple of big exactas – highlighted by Dalika and Madita, playbacks both, at Kentucky Downs which produced a $284 exacta. We’ll be eating well this week !
The Preakness day shapes up to be interesting – with the several scratches (Art Collector, Thousand Words) lying in wait for Authentic, and several others looking to wheel back, may be a very good wagering race. I love Preakness day even more than derby day. The track is a little bit quirky, and was a favorite of mine to play as a kid, and was the first time I went out on the road for a Triple Crown race.