What do Orlando Noda, Frederic Rossi, Valerie Lund, Victor Garcia, Joe Orseno, Mark Glatt, Kevin Attard and Paulo Lobo have in common ?

Well, they aren’t all household names as trainers for the casual player, but don’t be shocked if a handful of them win this Friday or Saturday on the Breeders Cup cards.

The Breeders Cup is Christmas for horseplayers.  Full fields, great horses, and in 2020, we all need something to be excited for.  Tampa Bay Downs and Fonner Park were a lifeline to normality for a lot of horseplayers this past spring, and it’s been the one thing that myself and a number of friends have had to rally around in a year where little else has gone right in America.  (We still don’t have a winner in the presidential race as I write!)

Politics aside, let’s play.   Trainer Neil Pessin said this morning on TVG that “I like to gamble a little, and see good horses run.”   I’m with Neil.

I think the card is strong, and as I mention above, there are a LOT of trainers with good horses this year. Seems like the wealth has been shared a bit more than in past years. Several spots both days with favorites that you might single – or play against. It’s a good gamble.

Couple of thoughts, there are 14 breeders cup races, so remember you can pick your spots.  You don’t need to bet every race.  A couple of these are real puzzlers (The mile on Saturday being #1 in my book).  You can have a great weekend by being right 2-3 times, and whether that’s a longshot, or a juicy exacta or trifecta.  If you like a price, this is not a weekend to be shy.

Here’s my looks at Friday’s BC races.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

First, let me say that while it’s been drying all week, the turf should still have some cut from last week’s deluge and cooler temps.  While it will likely be labled firm, it’s certainly not the “durf” of Gulfstream, or as tight as late summer at Saratoga or Santa Anita.   I think it should be pretty darn fair.   GOLDEN PAL will be a deserving favorite off a devastating performance at Saratoga, but if you want to poke a couple holes, he draws the 14 and will need the lead, or at least to get position from there. More than one good horse has lost when hung wide on both turns.  Also, he comes in off one big figure (Beyer, I toss the Euro Timeform rating a bit) and that can at times be suspect.   The pace projects hot, and barn mate AMANZI YIMPILO  has an improving pattern of Beyer Speed figures, and projects to sit a good stalking trip.  BODENHEIMER also has an improving pattern that caught my eye, but may need the lead and get fried dueling Golden Pal.  If that happens, DIRTY DANGLE will be coming late, who had a nice figure jump in the last start, should get covered up inside and will need Tyler Gafflione to work out a trip to get there late.

Juvenile Turf

NEW MANDATE is preferred for me among the euros, and gets the 2 post for a nice ground saving trip.  I don’t discount the Americans as much as others, and OUTADORE got a nice speed figure at Kentucky Downs.  We’ll see if that translates to Keeneland but should sit just behind the pace.  MUTASAABEQ is maybe a bit light in the Beyers for a “favorite” but the bad break last time didn’t help.  A better start alone should move him up and should sit mid-pack.  Officially, I am off the Aiden OBrien runners, so Battleground won’t figure in my play, but I will be giving a good look to SEALIWAY and GO ATHLETICO, with the former maybe rating a slight nod due to the inside post.

Juvenile Fillies

If you love Beyer Speed figures, than you’re going to be against PRINCESS NOOR.   I generally do, but in this case the BRIS figures are more appreciative of her, and the eye test tells me she’s better than that.  I don’t think she’s had to run hard yet, and outworked barn mate Spielberg, a recent maiden winner.  I may not be a win bettor at the ML 9-5, but she’s preferred. I’ll protect in sequences with DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (who is NOT a hunch play, thought that’s what Friday is for me!) and VEQUIST, who should sit behind the speed and would benefit from a duel.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Any improvement from CAMPANELLE may put her out of reach of these – the knock being two turns and the mile, and maybe the 10 post.  The pace looks solid and I think she will end up sitting just off and stalking.   MADONE at a price will be coming late.  PLUM ALI would appear to have versatility in how far back she may be … in Joel Rosario we trust for the well timed ride.  MISS AMULET has positional speed and the two post and may be able to dictate terms.

Juvenile

JACKIES WARRIOR is clearly the horse to beat, and on figures is probably two lengths the best.  But the adage goes to never bet a horse at odds-on who is doing something for the first time. In this case, that’s going 2 turns, which leaves just a bit of room for doubt.  REINVESTMENT RISK is the next best horse on figures – but I’m wondering how he reverses the last result.  SITTIN ON GO was a shocker on Kentucky Derby day with a huge jump in figures, and if the pace melts down as is wont to happen in these races, would benefit.  You can’t count out CLASSIER just on a Baffert angle and one start.  And while he isn’t a stone-cold play here, I’ll point out ROMBAUER, who caught my eye in workouts as one that might fill out and be a derby type next year.  He also has an improving pattern, and is flattered by Spielberg’s recent win.

For me, likely win bets on AMANZI YIMPILO, and possibly OUTADORE based on the price.  I’ll definitely mess with exactas in the Juvenile Turf.

I will be looking for any bias on the courses, whether speed or path, and also have questions about California Form and speed figures, and will use that information to inform Saturday’s action.   Saturday will be in the next post.

*- I cheated a little bit in adding Orlando Noda, as his horse is in the Marathon.  Danny California shipped down from New York, and I take that as a good sign that the Nodas want to get involved on the big weekend.

Let’s Gamble.