Plenty of notes from a busy weekend of stakes action, we will start with the 3-year-old rankings, which have been updated.

Essential Quality did little to hurt his number one ranking, winning well, taking his act on the road, and winning over a miserably wet and boggy track, while matching his speed figure from the last.  He stays number one on the list, with the only nagging question being that he will likely need one more step forward in speed figures to win the Kentucky Derby.   While you could forgive the lack of improvement for his first start at 3 due to the track conditions, when you see that Mystic Guide rolled up an eye popping 108 in the Razorback earlier on the card, it does open the door a crack to question if the figs weren’t a bit fast for the day — which could then be interpreted as a slight regression for Essential Quality ?    That’s a lot of assumptions, but happy that we will get to see one more from EQ before the derby, and I will be demanding a slight jump up in the Beyers.

We’ll get back to Oaklawn, but first the other derby trail news comes out of Gulfstream, where Greatest Honour made a visually impressive move to loop the field in the Fountain of Youth.  But given the speed favoring nature of the track, Drain the Clock should have been able to win off of a seven length lead.  Note that Papetu made a significant move off the turn as well, and I am ready to label the rest of this field a bunch of tomato cans.  The Beyer came back an 89, which won’t be good enough to win the Derby as is.  As a plus, GH did it well, mostly on his own once urged at the quarter pole, and he looks like he could go longer with ease.   But look a few races earlier on the card, where Collaborate “ran up the score” against maiden special weights at a mile, and got a 90 Beyer while geared down and winning by a football field.   Who would you want going forward?  I’m gonna be conservative with GH for the moment, moving up a notch, but I think he’s Shug’s Belmont horse, more so than his Derby horse.  Collaborate doesn’t make my gate 8 for the moment – but he’s in the bullpen and he’s getting loose in a hurry.

The other top finishers from Oaklawn merit some analysis as well. Spielberg broke sideways and spotted the field 4 lengths, before making a middle move and getting up for second, but never seriously threatened the winner. That result to me simply flatters his west coast brethren, and for the moment makes Medina’s Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie and Roman Centurion all the more viable. It also makes me wonder a bit about the Beyer for the race. It’s either a nice step forward for Spielberg, or another dart to throw at EQ, but hey, that’s the essence of handicapping.

Jackie’s Warrior is still intriguing to me.  If I told you that a really good two year old ran third in a major prep race, doing it in his first start at three in the muck, I suspect you’d say ‘he’s at least a fringe player in the derby trail.’   For the moment, I’m going to keep him as just that.  You could say that the wet track was a factor (though he’s bred to handle it) and to my eye it looked as though his fitness will likely get a big jump forward from this one.   If I’m Asmussen and JW comes back well, I’d keep him on the derby trail and look to go to Keeneland, which will favor his front running style, and make JW prove that he CAN’T get the 9f.  That being said, does Jackie’s Warrior deserve a spot in the derby gate eight ?   You’ll have to click here to find out !