Fully half the field of our Derby Gate 8 is entered for this weekend, as we approach the Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass, and the Santa Anita Derby.

Our three-year-old horse rankings were shuffled in the bottom half of the deck by last week’s Florida Derby.   Greatest Honour slides down a couple of spots, a move I had been looking to make, but needed a reason, and he gave it to me.  GH still hasn’t run fast enough to be a Kentucky Derby winner, at least in my book.

Known Agenda sat a beautiful stalking trip (the one I wanted for Nova Rags) and powered home to win, but if you take my previous Florida evaluation (a bunch of tomato cans) and Known Agenda’s beyer (94), I still question how good and how fast he really is.  I did some quick analysis of the dirt route stakes at Gulfstream this meeting.   Knicks Go scored a 108 in the Pegasus World Cup.  Ferless scored a 102 in beating Performer in the Gulfstream Park Mike.   Eye of the Jedi, who’s a nice overnight stakes, or maybe a G3 type if you stretch it, ran much faster than Known Agenda earlier on Saturday’s card.   I’m still against the Florida three year old contingent as a whole.  I suspect that the figs may be depressed a point or two, but that’s still too much variance for me to endorse Known Agenda or Greatest Honor as a Derby pick.  At best, I think they pass tired horses underneath.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks was a mess.  Moonlite Strike lit out on the lead hell bent for re-election with the blinkers on, which led to Gretzky the Great chasing too fast of a pace.  Neither was around at the end, though I still think we are going to find a spot to get a price on both of them before the summer is over.   Like the King won the race with just an 86 beyer.  I don’t see any major Kentucky Derby impact coming from this group.

Trip notes have become a big part of my play, and I am still working on the quick play sheets that amalgamate my favorite angles.  The Florida Derby was a double whiff for me.   Known Agenda had positive trip notes (how could he not !) off the stakes win – I never got those logged into my virtual stable, and had slipped my mind.  AND, Known Agenda popped up second to Greatest Honour on the quick-play sheet, and the 5-1 odds on KA vs 4-5 on Greatest Honour, should have made Known Agenda a significant part of my play.   I blew it.  Nova Rags, my pick to sit the trip ran well, but grabbed the early lead, holding on for fourth, while Known Agenda got the trip I had expected for Nova Rags.   Live and learn.  Trip noting is important to me, and I let my list get stale in this case, which has since been rectified.

Take a look at the updated 3-year-old rankings – we will have number 1, 3, 5, and 8 all in action this weekend, and a couple of the Chad Brown runners are looking to run their way onto the list with a strong effort this weekend.  More on these races later this week!