There are a million handicapping factors. I figure that number is about right. There are more than 1400 data points in each horse’s past performance line, and then you figure 8-12 horses in a race, 10 lines in each pp, start multiplying them out and . . . . phew ! Are you tired and confused yet ?

But what that all leads to is the story of today’s race. Why is this horse here ? Where did he come from, what were his last races like. Pace? Speed? Mud? Rail? To lay the favorite or fade the chalk. The list goes on and on. And where you hope to end up, is Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.

The point where a favorite is irrationally over-bet (Concert Tour). And there are a couple of other horses that are eligible to improve. Caddo River showed he didn’t want to rate last time, and drawn inside of Concert Tour again, you knew Caddo would be hell-bent for re-election to get the lead. Which then possibly put Concert Tour in a less comfortable position, stalking outside. Concert Tour also, didn’t have to win. Already comfortably in the Derby field on points, there’s a 50-50 chance that this one was a prep – with his best meant to come three weeks from now.

And then, Super Stock came in off a performance where he was eligible to improve, and would be on the rail just behind the two that would almost certainly go at it on the front end. Steve Asmussen’s interviews during the week showed an awful lot of confidence in the horse (reading the human connections and their intent is another angle that you don’t always get in the form), and finally as post time approached, 17-1 on a big time trainer’s horse, with reasons to oppose the top two, was enough for me to jump in – not only with WIN/PLACE bets on Super Stock, but with a little exacta box on Super Stock and Caddo River. (Remember, Concert Tour’s biggest job was to not get hurt before Kentucky). And finally, Super Stock got the big late drop – from 17-1 to 12-1 – an indication that the smart late money was in his corner.

And on this day, the plan all worked to perfection. Super Stock sat the desired trip, Caddo River gunned from the gate, Concert Tour sat in the 2-3 path and stalked. Mid-stretch, Super Stock tipped out and raced past the dueling leaders. As a bonus, Caddo River dug in and out finished Concert Tour, to complete an $87 exacta, and the weekend was made.

I’m not a “long shot” player in general. I track some trips, which leads to an occasional big price, but in general, I think I’m a value player, you have to take what the race gives you. And you have to read the story of the race.

This time was THE TIME for Super Stock. The overall time of the Arkansas Derby and a low 90’s Beyer, and the fast-early, slow late pattern doesn’t say to me that the Kentucky Derby is going to be the time for him again.

But, this race does inform one more data point for the Kentucky Derby: Steve Asmussen with a target is a dangerous man. See how he prepped Gun Runner, and Mitole for Breeders Cup wins. See how he prepped Super Stock here, to win the biggest race at what I’d consider his home track.

And look at Midnight Bourbon, Asmussen’s other Derby prospect – the big rangy 3-year old who’s done little wrong in throwing three straight mid-90s Beyers on the Louisiana road to the Kentucky Derby. And with that substantive break after the Louisiana Derby, where has Midnight Bourbon been ? Churchill Downs, where he threw a bullet 5-furlong work this Sunday.

Midnight Bourbon has waited them all out – flirting with the bottom of our Kentucky Derby / 3-year Old Rankings all year. And while some of the others have gone by the wayside, he’s climbing the list even without a race in the past two weeks. Next time may be THE TIME.

Steve Asmussen with a target? Dangerous on the first Saturday in May.