(Note: this piece special to the Sports Chowdah newsletter, intended for a general sports audience. Suggested wagers for smaller budgets, to capture a blend of probability and value.)

The Kentucky Derby is a great introduction the world of horse-racing and handicapping if you haven’t been engaged with the sport, and its also the chance for a financial score with some of the exotic bets. With a 20 horse field it’s far and away the biggest race in the USA.  Or, for those with less gamble in them, a great reason to throw a spring party.

If you want to bet the race, swing by Hollywood Races, or one of the Maine OTB locations. generally they will take advance wagers on Friday, or stop by earlier in the day on Saturday and get your bets in before the crowd gathers.  Other advance deposit wagering platforms may work in your area, or even the guy with the crooked nose at the donut shop (none of this should be construed as legal advice).

Here’s how to bet the derby for beginners:

Simple: a win bet – a $2 win ticket on your choice – if your horse wins, you get paid back the odds (say 8-1) plus your original $2 for a total of $18 

Harder (but a bigger payout): an exacta or an exacta box:  pick the first two horses in the correct order – IE HORSE A is 1st and Horse B is second.   This bet can pay  in the neighborhood $40 to $2000 on derby day.   The longer the shot that your horses are, the potential greater the reward.  An exacta box lets your horses finish in any order – if you box A,B and C, and it comes in C, A, B – you’re still a winner.  Your investment is slightly higher, but it’s a safeguard against a bad beat.  

Hardest:  TRIFECTA: pick the horses that finish in the top 3 spots (ie win, place, and show) this sounds hard, and it can be – but you don’t have to pick them Ice cold.   You can use as many horses in each finish slot that you like so ABC WITH ABCDE WITH ABCDEF would be a ticket that covers 60 combinations. So a $1 trifecta partwheel ticket would cost you $60, or you can even play it for as little as 50 cents.   So 60x .50 is a $30 investment – which the likely win return will be more than $100 – in 2019 a winning trifecta ticket paid more than $22,000 ! 

(Have your attention now, do I ?)

Here’s your derby cheat sheet:

Essential Quality will likely be the deserving favorite, around 3-1 odds.   He’s the safe, stable choice.   But he’s not exciting, and who wants 3-1 odds in a 20 horse race.

More exciting: Hot Rod Charlie – ships in from the west coast via Louisiana, owned by fraternity brothers, and will be bet by everyone who knows someone named Charlie, but comes in off a win, and shares the second best speed figure in the race. Versatile. Can run on the lead, or come from further back. Estimated 8-1 odds

Highly Motivated: just a step behind the favorite in the last race, runs third off the layoff here for top trainer, and likely 8-1 odds. He’s been purposely pointed to this race, and trainer decided not to run his other horse – ‘why run two when one will do.,’ the old saying goes.

Wild West: Rock Your World may be the fastest horse on paper, and has a little drama in his story coming in from L.A. as they just switched off a young jockey who won the last race, for Joel Rosario, who already has a Kentucky Derby winning ride on his resume. Estimated 5-1 odds.

Like the long shots do you ?   Midnight Bourbon or Mandaloun are your choices.   Both come out of the bayou in Louisiana, and neither won his last race.   But Midnight Bourbon is improving at the right time and he’ll run all day.   Mandaloun woke up on the wrong side of the bed in his last race, and just drilled a bullet workout over the Churchill Downs course last week.   If you’re the forgiving type, forgive his last race and know that better things lie ahead for him, and you may want to gamble that it’s on the first Saturday in May.  Estimated odds (15-1 and 25-1, respectively)

Finally, if it’s raining and muddy, good luck 🍀.  That tends to invoke chaos in the race and the possibility of huge payouts. 

Suggested wagers (for a smaller budget):

$10 on Highly Motivated to win.  

$2 Exacta Box: Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Highly Motivated  (a $2 exacta box will cost you $12 at the window)

$1 Trifecta Partwheel

Essential Quality and Highly Motivated WITH  Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated, and Rock Your World. WITH  with Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, Dynamic One and Mandaloun (Total wager of $40)

Or pick your own and enjoy!

(The post position draw isn’t until Tuesday, so I have used the horses’ names, rather than their number above).

HOST A DERBY PARTY

The Mint Julep is the official drink of the Kentucky Derby.   You’ll want lots of crushed ice, a bottle of Woodford Reserve Bourbon, and the day before, make a simple syrup with equal parts sugar, water, and mint.  Simmer until the sugar dissolves, add the mint and let it steep for half an hour as the syrup cools.   Refrigerate until use.

On race day, pack a glass with crushed ice, add 3 parts bourbon to 1 part simple syrup, garnish with a spring of fresh mint, and enjoy – but pace yourself – the derby post time isn’t until 6:57 p.m. on NBC.

And if your crew is not comprised hardcore bettors, an easy way for everyone to enjoy the race and have an interest is with a simple pool – each of your guests throws $5 in a pool, and draws the name (or number) of a horse out of a hat.   Winner takes all.

If you’d like to learn more about the horses in the Kentucky Derby, and handicapping in general, visit my blog at www.Turfhandicapper.com where I will handicap the full card for Derby day.