Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I didn’t. Honestly, I only dabbled on Preakness Day due to a family commitment and my overall disgust over the state of racing given the Medina Spirit doping/medication overage/positive test, call it what you like.

I didn’t have much of an opinion on this one, as it was hard to be both for or against the Baffert horses, and Midnight Bourbon figured to be overbet, given the controversy. All proved true, and my lone play was a pick three ticket that was singled to Concert Tour to cash.

Well, that didn’t work, as he broke slow, rated awkwardly and wide, and was done early. Rombauer was my early Kentucky Derby pick, given his appearance at the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I thought he would get better as the distances got longer, and it sure looks like he has, rolling down the stretch to win by three lengths. I managed to overlook this, largely due to his Beyer Speed Figures did not compare to Midnight Bourbon or Medina Spirit, or even Concert Tour.

Rombauer improved his previous mark by approximately 14 points, according to reports, which is a remarkable amount. I generally account for the opportunity to improve by 5-10 points, particularly in the first start at 3, or first start at 4. I’ll do a bit more examination of his PP’s and the short layoff to see if there may be an angle in there that I can better exploit in the future.

My selection of Concert Tour was a simple odds play – if you had run the race the weekend of the Arkansas Derby, you would have expected Concert Tour to be half the price of Medina Spirit, and likely would have been 3/2 against this field. 4-1 was right for me to jump in, and while the play didn’t work out (and it looks like Concert Tour needs a vacation to get his act together), I am perfectly comfortable with the strategy I adopted. In that case, I believe it was an $18 ticket alive to $450 – with a 4-1 third choice who had right to be lower – I’ll hand you the $18 everytime to have that chance.

Hope your Preakness Saturday was more profitable than mine was.