My Kentucky Derby column for Sports Chowdah with picks …

The Kentucky Derby comes up this weekend – the first Saturday in May, the Run for the Roses, the most exciting two minutes in sports. 

Here’s a primer on what to watch for, and who to wager on.

What to watch: Steve Asmussen all-time leading trainer in terms of total races won -but he’s never one the Derby.  Several of his horses have outperformed their odds, and he brings in one of his best chances ever in#3 Epicenter, who will be the first or second choice in the wagering by post time.

Trainer Brad Cox has been around long enough to not necessarily a young upstart anymore, but he trained last year’s “winner” Mandaloun, who DQ’d into the win, while Cox’s other horse, the favorite Essential Quality ran fourth.  Cox will bring three chances into the derby with Cyberknife, Zozos and Tawny Port all making the starting gate this year – but I don’t think any of them is fast enough to win.

Speaking of the DQ last year, what you won’t see is the familiar face of Bob Baffert who’s been suspended by Churchill downs due to a medication violation on the late Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first last year it was eventually disqualified.  Baffert has won seven Kentucky Derbies, but he’s been benched.  Baffert is still a represented in one sense as two of his top horses have been transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen. #12 Taiba appears to be super talented by lacks foundation with only 2 career starts.   #6 Messier could be a value play if his odds float up.  He will be forwardly placed, and Baffert runners have been known to carry that speed late.

Who to bet: the favorites #3 Epicenter and #10 Zandon have no knocks, both have the requisite speed figures, Epicenter will be forwardly placed in the race, which is usually a good thing. Zandon will be coming from a bit further back, and both figure if the track is wet.

Who not to bet: #1 Mo Donegal got a terrible draw in post 1, and will have to work out a trip from behind a lot of horses in the 20 horse field. The best of trainer Todd Pletcher’s horses, he’ll be over-bet given the draw.

If you’re looking to juice up your bankroll with an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, I’ll be using #8 Charge It, #14 Barber Road, #9 Tiz the Bomb and Japanese invader #7 Crown Pride in the 2nd, 3^rd, and fourth spots as they have a chance to hit the board as a price.

How to Play:

The pick: if you are ok with a favorite. #3 Epicenter 7-2

If you want a little gamble: #6 Messier at 9-1 or higher:

If you like the long shots:  #7 Crown Pride 30-1, but Japanese horses have dominated big international races lately

My probable and recommended plays:

Exacta box: #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier

over #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier , #15 White Abarrio, #1 Mo Donegal

a $1 exacta box will cost you $12 at the window (as you get all 12 combinations)

Trifecta partwheel: : #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier over #3 Epicenter,#10 Zandon, #6 Messier , #15 White Abarrio, #1 Mo Donegal, #8 Charge It, #7 Crown Pride, #9 Tiz the Bomb and #14 Barber Road

This one will cost you a bit more: a 50-cent tri partwheel will be $84 at the window, but 7 times in 10 years from 2010-2020 the tri paid $2,000 or more.

The derby is unique in the US as the only race that has 20 horses … as a handicapper it’s a great chance to get paid if you’re right – or to be embarrassed when you’re wrong.  But with huge money in the pools and a strong undercard it’s a great day of racing and wagering.

Good luck, stick to your bankroll, and enjoy the day. The undercard races will feature many of the best horses in America, and the pomp and flair of Derby Day can’t be beat. Put on your best hat, and enjoy a mint julep with the great races!