Spent a spectacular weekend at Saratoga this weekend, with a tip of the cap to I.M. Bettor for hosting.

It was my first trip to the spa in three years, thanks to the pandemic, but it brought back a number of fine points for handicapping the spa.

1.     Saratoga is a different kind of animal.  

So much money in the pools, and so many well-meant horses, you can’t just bet the last-race speed figure like you can at Aqueduct and be right 80 percent of the time. The title of this post – “The Odds Must Be Crazy” – is the key. Late Friday, I started to hone in. There were three horses who’s odds were insane:

Theodora Grace 13-1

Waterville 11-1

Dufresne 25-1

I made all to about half their listed price. Boxed em up and was unlucky to get split by Todd Pletcher’s Whatlovelookslike at the wire to disrupt what would have been about a $300 exacta for a $2 play. Unlucky, but spot on.

At Saratoga Race Track, there are more fish, and more money in the pools. Like everyhere, money gravitates to the favorites, but here, almost all the horses are well-meant. There aren’t many tourists among the horsemen and owners. Make your own line and seek value.

2.     Value is where you find it.

Saturday gave us three more handicapping basics that provided obvious situations to get value.

Damon’s Mound in the Saratoga Special went off at 9/5, while Gulfport, the big buzz horse was 2/5.   Watching the replays for me confirmed that Damon’s Mound was no less capable – winning by nearly the length of the stretch and overcoming a bad start in his debut.  This is a great angle I love for 2 year olds stretching out – if they run late or overcome trouble in their first or second start, I find them great plays as the races get longer.  The difference in odds was too great for the difference in accomplishments.  I hit the send button on my wager at 2-1, which dropped to 9/5 as they went in the gate.

The Coach, D Wayne Lukas unleashed a second-time starter, Bourbon Bash, against a field of firsters. He’d done enough (a 64 beyer in debut) and was ignored at 4-1. Should have been no worse than a co-favorite, and 5-2. We cashed.

Casa Creed is a multiple graded stakes winner against some of the top turf sprinters and milers of his generation.  His best efforts lately have come sprinting, and I think that’s what let him go at 4-1 in the Fourstardave while Regal Glory was 3-5.  The presence of Masen and Get Smokin ensured there would be pace to run at, and if your going to give me Regal Glory and Casa Creed with an even start, 4-1 was waaaaaaay to juicy to let go.   We cashed again.

3.     What are you doing here ?

If you are spending a day at the track, I think you need to know your purpose.  A blind squirrel stumbles across a nut now and then, but I like to lock in on what I’m doing that day.  Am I there to gamble (and win!) or to socialize.  I know I don’t do both equally effectively, so Friday I got there early to settle in from the excitement of being back at the track, and with a group of friends, I conscientiously dialed back my wagers as I didn’t love the New York Bred card.  More chaos than my style jibes with, so I let it be a more social day.    Saturday we settled in with the stakes card and a couple of solid targets to play, some hit (see above) some didn’t, but I played to my strength and left with a small profit – though we were alive to several grand in the nightcap, which didn’t pan out.  Sunday we split up the early pick 5 and left with a fine pile of money.

4.     Watch out for the steam or smoke

There’s a lot of steam, smoke, and tips on all sorts of horses. Saratoga is a small town, the horsemen comingle with the racegoers everywhere. It’s not uncommon to sit at dinner with one of that day’s winning trainers a table or two away. Everyone wants to win, and everyone wants to believe they have an angle. Be careful who you listen to, and trust only the sources you trust. As Paul LoDuca said on the Saratoga Live broadcast the other day “I have tips on about eight horses in this race.” They can’t all win – trust your handicapping and budget your bankroll.

Weekend Notes:

The track seems to have quickened up considerably this week after the hot spell.  Good times in some of Sunday’s races.  The track had been tiring, extra credit to those who have a race over thr track or a series of works on it as we move forward in the meet.    I still think you don’y want to be TOO FAR back on the turf.  Keep an eye on changes and rails for the inner and the Mellon courses.

Expressman appears to be monster – and I’ll be playing back the next two from that race.

The Fourstardave and Saratoga Special are two of my favorite races at the Spa. You typically get good fields, and for some reason I have cashed these two often.

Shoutout Solevo ! We had a fantastic meal at Solevo on Friday night . . . a late reservation and a big party were no obstacle to great food and great service. The buzz is indeed warranted!

Bad Ride of the Week:  Set Piece in the Arlington Million was a key play back for me.   I figured him very live in that spot, but Flo had him 10 lengths back on a course that favored nothing but speed this spring.  Knew I was dead less than halfway down the back stretch.   Will likely be playing him back – I don’t think either of the last two trips is reflective of the horses ability.

Arlington Million: Memo to Churchill Downs – it’s bad enough that you clesed the venue – please keep the name of the race the “Arlington Million” and reflect it’s proper history, heritage and significance in racing.