3-year-old / Kentucky Derby Rankings

My weekly ranking of the 3-year old division, with regard to the Triple Crown races (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes) as well as the Travers Stakes and the Breeders Cup Classic as the season progresses.  The rankings are  based on a blend of accomplishment and potential; horse must have run to make the list.  In theory, 1 beats 2, 2 beats 3 on a fair dirt track at 1-1/4 mile. Why top 8?  Well, that's a pretty typical field size, and everyone loves a list.

May 5, 2022 – Pre-Derby Version

1	Epicenter	Steve Asmussen	Has done nothing wrong to date; best combination of eye test, speed figs and consistency
2	Zandon	Chad Brown	Impressive win in Blue Grass has him very close to top choice
3	Messier	Tim Yakteen/Bob Baffert	The fastest on raw speed figs, but a touch inconsistent so far
4	White Abarrio	Saffie Joseph	Some hiccups along way, but keeps winning and outdistanced the horse below H2H
5	Mo Donegal	Todd Pletcher	May be higher or lower based on who’s figs you like; Wood mem
6	Taiba	Tim Yaketeen/Bob Baffert	Got a perfect setup in winning SA Derby; lacks experience, want to see him do it again before true belief
7	Charge It	Todd Pletcher	Getting good at the right time, green in Fla Derby, longer is probably better for him
8	Tiz The Bomb	Kenny McPeek	Needs to prove it on dirt, but Jeff Ruby win was convincing

August 23, 2021 – Pre-Travers Version

1	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Belmont and Jim Dandy have done nothing but further stamp his credentials.
2	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Unfortunate incident in the Haskell got a deserving takedown, top three are hard to separate.
3.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Still hasn’t crossed the line first in a while, but only a half step behind the top two.  Looks like an extended break before Saudi in ‘22
4.	Medina Spirit *	Bob Baffert	What to do with him? Kentucky Derby winner caught a speed biased track, and has a rumored medication overage – I can’t make him higher than this.
5.	Midnight Bourbon	Steve Asmussen	Got pinched back at start of Ky Derby, and ran on to be sixth. Grinder who will run all day; hadn’t missed the board til the stumble in Jersey.
6.	Keepmeinmind	Robertino Diodoro	Big race in the Jim Dandy showed what he can do with a clean trip, but still a couple lengths behind the top quintet and needs a set up.
7.	Rock Your World	John Sadler	Lost an iron and all hope out of the gate in the derby.. Sadler doesn’t always ship well, and lightly raced.  Speed figures still say he’s a player and likely for the Shared Belief.
8.	Life Is Good	Todd Pletcher	Transferred to Pletcher from Baffert. Need to see one, and probably will in the Jerkens, but a win there will vault him back up the rankings

O’Besos hasn’t been seen in a while but will get a long look from me at the windows when he resurafaces.  Highly Motivated hasn’t been seen in a while, drops into the scrap heap.  Masqueparade ran his race in Ohio but melted when facing the top shooter in the Jim Dandy.  Dynamic One is a good-looker and ran a big race in the Curlin – but still question his top end speed against the best of his generation.  King Fury should like the mile and a quarter, but the stop and start for the McPeek barn at Saratoga makes me wonder is his best shot may get fired in the fall. Where’s Rombauer ? Well, I’m asking the same question.

Preakness Chart

May 10, 2021

1	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Wide trip in Derby; better trip and he’s the champ. Has won a duel, has won in muck, best 2 yo has carried it forward
2	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Louisiana Derby stamped him a major contender with a 99 Beyer
3.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Derby showed his true stripes, trip in La Derby was subtly very bad
4.	Medina Spirit *	Bob Baffert	What to do with him? Kentucky Derby winner caught a speed biased track, and has a rumored medication overage – I can’t make him higher than this.
5.	Rock Your World	John Sadler	Lost an iron and all hope out of the gate in the derby. The new speed figure king with the 100 in the SA Derby. Sadler doesn’t always ship well, and lightly raced.
6.	Highly Motivated	Chad Brown	Split the field in the derby; may in fact be challenged beyond 9f…. Very game in narrow loss to EQ in Blue Grass, goes to Derby in third start of cycle, don’t discount
7.	Midnight Bourbon	Steve Asmussen	Got pinched back at start of Ky Derby, and ran on to be sixth. Grinder who will run all day; hasn’t missed the board yet, mild freshening and we know that Asmussen can point one to a big race
8.	Known Agenda	Todd Pletcher	Rough trip early on the rail in Kentucky. Stalking style will suit, is raw speed fast enough, or are GP #’s depressed this spring

May 1, 2020

April 12, 2020

1	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Has won a duel, has won in muck, best 2 yo has carried it forward
2	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Louisiana Derby stamped him a major contender with a 99 Beyer
3	Rock Your World	John Sadler	The new speed figure king with the 100 in the SA Derby. I don’t think you can shine a flashlight between the first three
4	Highly Motivated	Chad Brown	Very game in narrow loss to EQ in Blue Grass, goes to Derby in third start of cycle, don’t discount
5	Midnight Bourbon	Steve Asmussen	Grinder who will run all day; hasn’t missed the board yet, mild freshening and we know that Asmussen can point one to a big race
6	Known Agenda	Todd Pletcher	Stalking style will suit, is raw speed fast enough, or are GP #’s depressed this spring
7	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Not exactly the way I want to see a horse head to Kentucky, but every right for that to be a prep . . . but demand a price on May 1
8	Dynamic One	Todd Pletcher	Re-watch of the Wood has this one doing all the dirty work mid race, and just got nailed late by a horse he couldn’t see. May not be fast enough, but right pace setup could get him a piece.

April 6, 2021

1	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Has won a duel, has won in muck, best 2 yo has carried it forward
2	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Louisiana Derby stamped the California crop best so far this year, the win eliminates questions about being a hanger (99)
3	Rock Your World	John Sadler	The new speed figure king
4	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Still has upside in Arkansas Derby
5	Highly Motivated	Chad Brown	Very game in narrow loss to EQ in Blue Grass, goes to Derby in third start of cycle, don’t discount
6	Known Agenda	Todd Pletcher	Stalking style will suit, is raw speed fast enough, or are GP #’s depressed this spring
7	Midnight Bourbon	Steve Asmussen	Grinder who will run all day; hasn’t missed the board yet, mild freshening and we know that Asmussen can point one to a big race
8	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Stays in as eligible to hit the board passing horses late; cant endorse as a potential winner unless absurs speed duel develops

March 29, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Tenuous grip on top spot pending his Blue Grass Stakes; Paired up figure from the fall, still needs another step forward (95)
2.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill/Leandro Mora	Louisiana Derby stamped the California crop best so far this year, the win eliminates questions about being a hanger (99)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis, Second best to Life is Good in San Felipe (94/91)
4.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Passed the two turn test with style in the Rebel (94); moves up on California form
5.	Dream Shake	Peter Eurton	Gets a home game in the SA Derby with Life is Good out; he’s been fast enough, now needs to prove it against a good field
6.	Known Agenda	Todd Pletcher	Finally a Pletcher horse shows up on the list! Beyer (94) in Fla Derby still doesn’t seem fast enough – or is GP playing slow ?
7.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Wasn’t really buying before Fla. Derby; His figs haven’t been great, and last was a clunker, though in reality just a prep. Was much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
8.	Rombauer	Mike McCarthy	Going too Blue Grass is an odd, but confident move. Maybe they want to get him to Kentucky early? Should relish longer distances.

March 22, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Inherits the top spot (for now?) with Life is Good sidelined; Paired up figure from the fall, still needs another step forward (95)
2.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill/Leandro Mora	Louisiana Derby stamped the California crop best so far this year, the win eliminates questions about being a hanger (99)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis, Second best to Life is Good in San Felipe (94/91)
4.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Passed the two turn test with style in the Rebel (94); moves up on California form
5.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Moves up somewhat by default; Much the best in the Holy Bull (89) Needs a speed fig jump
6.	Dream Shake	Peter Eurton	Gets a home game in the SA Derby with Life is Good out
7.	Rombauer	Mike McCarthy	Should relish the distance, SA Derby gives him a chance to prove it.
8.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Not a great trip in the La. Derby, but now we’ve seen it twice; still, Risen Star effort (98) stamped him one of the ones

March 15, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Clearly the new #1 after runaway win in San Felipe. . . . who’s going to beat him ? (107)
2.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Paired up figure from the fall, still needs another step forward (95)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis, Second best to Life is Good in San Felipe (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91); Pretty much taking one shot in La. Derby
5.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Moves up somewhat by default; Much the best in the Holy Bull (89) Needs a speed fig jump
6.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Passed the two turn test with style in the Rebel (94)
7.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Risen Star effort (98) stamped him one of the ones
8.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Failed a big test when challenged on the front end in the Rebel (92)

March 8, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Clearly the new #1 after runaway win in San Felipe. . . . who’s going to beat him ? (107)
2.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Paired up figure from the fall, still needs another step forward (95)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis, Second best to Life is Good in San Felipe (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91)
5.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
6.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
7.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Useful step in the San Vicente (94)
8.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Risen Star effort (98) stamped him one of the ones

March 1, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style (95 Beyer)
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91)
5.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
6.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
7.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Useful step in the San Vicente (94)
8.	Mandaloun	Brad Cox	Risen Star effort (98) stamped him one of the ones

February 15, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style (95 Beyer)
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91)
5.	Jackie’s Warrior	Steve Asmussen	Fast enough, needs to stretch out (100)
6.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
7.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
8.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Useful step in the San Vicente (94)

February 8, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style (95 Beyer)
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91)
5.	Jackie’s Warrior	Steve Asmussen	Fast enough, needs to stretch out (100)
6.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
7.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
8.	Concert Tour	Bob Baffert	Useful step in the San Vicente (94)

February 1, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style (95 Beyer)
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Showed resolve in the Lewis (94/91)
4.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile ; Just missed in Lewis (94/91)
5.	Jackie’s Warrior	Steve Asmussen	Fast enough, needs to stretch out (100)
6.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
7.	Greatest Honour	Shug McGaughey	Much the best in the Holy Bull (89)
8.	Capo Kane	Harold Wyner	Tops the NY Contingent for now (84)

January 25, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style (95)
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile (94)
4	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Currently the second team (99)
5.	Mutasaabeq	Todd Pletcher	Best of the Fla contingent so far (87)
6.	Jackie’s Warrior	Steve Asmussen	Fast enough, needs to stretch out (100)
7.	Caddo River	Brad Cox	Impressive in the Smarty Jones (92)
8.	Capo Kane	Harold Wyner	May not bet top cut, but looked good doing it in NY (84)

January 18, 2021

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Notes
1.	Essential Quality	Brad Cox	Impressive winner of BC Juvenile, has right style
2.	Life is Good	Bob Baffert	Best Beyer (103)
3.	Hot Rod Charlie	Doug O’Neill	Came running late in BC Juvenile
4	Medina Spirit	Bob Baffert	Currently the second team (99)
5.	Mutasaabeq	Todd Pletcher	Best of the Fla contingent so far (87)
6.	Jackie’s Warrior	Steve Asmussen	Fast enough, needs to stretch out
7.	Capo Kane	Harold Wyner	May not bet top cut, but looked good doing it in NY (84)
8.	Rombauer	Mike McCarthy	Needs to run faster, but breeding says he’ll relish longer races