The post draw is done, and it’s Kentucky Derby Pick time. I do not believe any of the major players were hampered significantly by the post draw. I thought Firenze Fire was hopeless before the draw, and that hasn’t changed by getting the 1 post. Free Drop Billy is going to drop out and make a run, so the 2 is fine.
Combatant gets downgraded a bit by getting 20, but I was looking to make a case against him, and this is it. I do downgrade Vino Rosso slightly in 18, as he will need to save some ground in the turn. I liked his Wood, but this is enough to keep me off him for the top slot.
Pace Scenario
I think we will get a decent enough pace to keep the race honest. I see speed drawn both inside and out, which should keep it lively, and the horses I’ll focus on should all be in their preferred garden spot, tracking the leaders.
Justify
Is a deserving favorite. Has done nothing wrong to date, the works are sharp and he looks great. He had it all his own way in the Santa Anita Derby, and opened up on Bolt D’oro in the final 16th. Part of the reason he had it his own was is because he is so naturally fast. I see him closely stalking the lead group. Barring any trouble (which is never a given in a 20 horse field) he’s going to get first run.
Others Who Rate a Chance
I won’t be shocked if Bolt D’Oro, Good Magic, Mendelssohn or Audible win the race.
I’ll make the same case for Bolt and Good Magic. I think both were managed to peak on the first Saturday in May. I have the same knock on both, as they have both looked a bit one-paced to me this spring (which, in all fairness, may be because they haven’t peaked yet). I think they both get the distance and are certainly involved mid stretch.
With Mendelssohn, the Beyer speed figure and how impressively he won in Dubai both dictate that he’s a major player. The best Last-Race Beyer is usually a sting Derby handicapping angle, which puts him in step with Justify. The ship in from Dubai is a strong negative angle. I’m going to consider that a play against. I’ll have him underneath us some exotic tickets, but given an honest pace, dirt, huge crowd, ship, etc I can’t put him on top.
Audible seems to be the best of the Todd’s and hasn’t done anything wrong to date. He should be in a good tracking spot, and if he’s good enough, he will be one of the ones mid-stretch.
The Late Runners
I will be using Hofburg, Free Drop Billy, My Boy Jack, Vino Rosso and Solomini underneath on my biggest tri tickets. Inevitably one of these types (Lookin at Lee last year) lopes up past tired horses to get involved in the exotics (and in rare occasions – Giacomo, Mine That Bird – wins the race). I was interested in Vino Rosso, really liked his Wood, but between his beyer and post, he becomes an underneath play for me.
Hofburg and Solomini aren’t hopeless for the top spot, but Hofburg needs about 5 lengths improvement and is lightly seasoned, and Solomini has been all over the place in his preps. The “other Baffert” is always an interesting play, and the fact that he’s still in the race means Bob thinks he at least has a punchers chance. Remember he beat Bolt in the BC juvenile, so the latent talent is there.
I think Romans runs his horses as a team, getting a fast pace which should help Free Drop Billy run late, and I can see Desormeaux “painting the rail” with My Boy Jack and looking to hit the board late if he gets the trip.
When I started to get really involved with racing in the late 90s, my perspectives of the Derby were skewed by a series of these longshots results. It’s really returned to form the past few years, and as I have seen others make the case, the points system seems to have sorted the field well with few ‘need the lead’ sprinter types (a la Songandaprayer), which had skewed the pace scenario.
I think this year, the best horse wins with a relatively clean trip. I will key Justify on top in trifectas, and play a back up with Good Magic, and Bolt D’oro in the top spot.
Race day, I’ll play the longer price of Good Magic and Bolt D’oro. There wasn’t much separating them last year, and I just can’t play a 2-1 Justify in a 20 horse race. This game is all about putting yourself in a position to be profitable, and I have done that with future plays on Bolt D’Oro, and will have a modified Dutch situation by using Justify as the trifecta key.
Enjoy the day, the party and the full card. If I have a chance, I’ll post some full card thoughts before Saturday.
Turfhandicapper.com 