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A quick look at today’s derby preps. In the Blue Grass, I am all about GOOD MAGIC . While I’ve heard some disparagement about his comeback race, I mentioned before that he looked like a classic “needed a race” horse, and he woke up and did his best running late. I’m figuring him to be wound much tighter this time out, and Chad Brown is no dummy. I feel like this is free money at 2-1. His 100 beyer at Del Mar is the best in the field, and I expect Good Magic to run back to, if not exceed that, which means the others all need significant improvement to win. The other two I’d use would be Sporting Chance, who could get away on the lead from the inside post, or Kanthaka, who’ll be running late in the event of a pace breakdown.

In the Santa Anita Derby, I’ll urge you to follow photographer Ernie Belmonte on Twitter. Take a look at Justify galloping yesterday, and tell me if you want to run against him. I certainly don’t. I’ve been on the Bolt D’Oro bandwagon all year, but Baffert’s youngster just looks too fit here, and there’s a reason he shipped all the other ones out of town. I expect this to be a match race between the two, and little wagering value on either.

The once- great Wood Memorial now looks like the second string. Enticed is the one to beat, but I’m going to fade the Gotham and go with the lightly raced Restoring Hope. He’s making his third start around two turns, and Flavian Prat sees fit to fly cross country to have a shot at a Derby Mount on a big Stakes day at Santa Anita.

Today’s watch horses – Clear N Convincing at Aqueduct (2nd). Midnight Disguise in the Gazelle, and Restoring Hope.

Just a quick note since it’s been a while since I have posted. Got busy with life and my 9-5 gig, and haven’t logged much ‘capping time unfortunately. I have an event tomorrow afternoon that I am hoping will be over in time to see the preps. I am a huge Bolt D’oro fan, and can’t wait to see where he picks up. I thought Good Magic looked like a classic “needs a race “horse last weekend… Since the goal is to win three Triple Crown races I really can’t fault his effort, and thought he found his best stride wait… Have to remember he is extremely lightly raced to this point as well

Below are my notes from a couple weeks ago that I never had time to post.

Enjoy the preps this weekend !

These were meant to be Monday musings after the Southwest Stakes, but somehow it’s now Thursday!

I’m not ready to buy in to my boy Jack being a real legitimate derby contender. It appeared to me that there was a huge rail bias in the stretch at Oaklawn, and perhaps your closing by us as well as both Hawaakom and imy boy Jack posted strong rallies in that fashion. Desormeaux deserves credit for giving him a dream boot-scraping trip. Jack was well back of McKinzie last time Out, and while not impossible that he is improved that much, I will discount slightly for now….

I am enjoying documenting the derby trail for the first time (though I have followed avidly four years) as articulating my thoughts helps to solidify them… It’s still strikes me how early in the process we are in trying to narrow down candidates for the derby win. Still plenty of time for relative unload to jump up and grab the spotlight with the many preps yet to come

I will, however, endorse sporting chances return to the races… He ended up finishing a good second and dealt with some interference in first race back off of the layoff. He did not back up quite as badly as Mourinho. As we have discussed before the chief knows how to get one ready, and the seasonal bow for sporting chance has done nothing to discount his chances.

Mourinho stopped pretty badly at the top of the stretch. Van Dyke said he was “swimming” in the track, and he got some pace pressure. I will look at it as a negative but will keep him among the top prospects on a dry track.

An updated Derby ranking will follow soon …

Little time to write today, but the Playback of the year is Cryogenic r12 at GP today. Was clear by several lengths last time before the horse took a bad step and Jaramillio literally fell off yards from the wire. Wheels right back, and Jaramillo gets right back on! Attaboy!!

Also have watches on Combat Zone and Cascade Rock both live R1 at SA. Prefer combat. There is a even money Mandela’s horse in there, as well. If it gets bet down must be a monster – could beat these two but could be a good tri play.

Yesterday’s play New Atlas won and paid $7.00 and $3.40. The others did not materialize as plays (main threat Thewayiam did score). If you look back at the week we also cashed with Restoring Hope, plus wheeling back to the Pegasus we noted both the exacta and trifecta with top three Gun Runner, West Coast and Gunnevera as well as a correct toss of Collected.

A touchdown win for the Patriots tonight would make for a very nice week indeed.

Tonight’s Super Bowl special is Rochester-style Garbage Plates !

Here’s our watch list runners for today. New Atlas will be a play for me, but I’ll be looking at significant scratches, board, and the paddock before wading in with the others.

New Atlas R3 GP – gets Irad, comes off terrible trip, but marooned in 13 post today

Data Dependent R6 GP – Brown/Castellano will vie for favoritism but fits well here. Motion’s Thewayiam at the rail looms a threat

Old watcher J.S. Choice goes in the 9th at Gulfstream, but hasn’t run in a while and catches a pretty salty field. I’ll likely watch this time as he needed a Race last spring as well.

Irish Freedom – R8 Santa Anita – game effort with a wide trip last time … but the water is deeper here … a piece with a better trip.

A couple of quick notes as we get ready for Super Bowl Saturday. Watch lister Restoring Hope came back to Win yesterday at 4/5, and may have put himself on the Derby Trail. Did his best running late (really late) and looks like there may be more there as he figures out the game.

Here’s one to add to your watch list for Oaklawn – Savedbyanangel – pressed pace and came up a little short in debut, Santana up for low-profile Barn. May have needed the race. (Might need 2, but keep an eye out)

Super Bowl – I am actually surprised to see the line moving the way it is, towards Philly. Even here in New England at the corner cafe, the man has New England -5, and you can get 4 in Vegas, maybe 3.5 by kickoff. I feel like it’s an overreaction to the last thing people saw. Belichick is outstanding on 2 weeks prep and also against “young” quarterbacks. I actually like Foles as a player, but given the situation I still give Pats the edge.

To me, Super Bowl Sunday is more about enjoying the game and the party. If you don’t have a strong opinion, why would you make a big bet ? If you have had a successful year on football, don’t give back your bankroll….

What’s on your Super Bowl menu ? Back in ‘05 some friends from Philly and I teamed up for a cheesesteak and chowder extravaganza… I know they are planning the same thing again. They live in NY and get the real-deal steaks shipped in from relatives.

May have a watch horse or two for today … I will post before Gulfstream goes off … Giddyup.

I’m 0-1 on my Pegasus picks, after being in California Chrome’s corner last year. I like the idea of the race, but the hullabaloo about possibly changing the distance makes no sense, and that Stonach had to buy the last three spots to make the race go does not portend well for its future.

Gun Runner is hands-down the horse to beat. And it’s well possible that he is simply far and away the best horse in the race and he wins for fun… I don’t think he’s a one-dimensional speed type, as he has sat behind horses, I just believe he has so much natural speed he has ended up on the lead the number of times, they were easy leads given his ability.

That being said he won’t be a win bet for me at less than even money. The combination of post and pace may create an opportunity to play against Gun Runner. I will give West Coast a long look at anything over 6 to 1.

If I can’t get my prices there, I will likely play combinations of gun runner/West Coast, Gunnevera, Sharp Azteca/ West Coast, Gunnevera, Sharp Azteca, and Giant Expectations and War Story in the trifecta. I have been tracking Giant Expectations for a year now and believe he is on a serious upswing, and will likely be ridden to get a piece, vs win at all costs.

Looks like a solid card. I will be messing around with the pick 4 as well, but I haven’t capped the undercard enough yet to merit publication. Looks like there are chances to get a price in the 10th and 11th … good luck !

The Watcher: Inland Empire in the 9th at Santa Anita !