The ‘capper is working on his calendar for 2018 and his racing resolutions There are two major tenets to it, which are intertwined:
1. Be a more disciplined player
2. Focus on a large handful of major events and fewer tracks
The ‘capper still holds down a 9-5. Say what you will, health insurance and a defined benefit pension plan are both wonderful things!
I started formalizing this plan last May as I prepped for the Saratoga meet. But I didn’t follow it that well, to be honest. It did make me start tracking trips in a more earnest and formalized way, which has been the biggest benefit. But I’m still a victim of my own boredom, and I have a tendency to start firing on a weekday afternoon or evening, just to take the edge off. (Hey, I rarely drink, and don’t smoke or use drugs, it’s gotta be something !). But clearly, the action plays became way too big of a portion of my bankroll.
So with that in mind, my day to day focus will be only on my trip horses. Generally I’ll play these as my 1 unit Win, 1.6 unit place bets, and will look to grind out a profit. In the event that they dip into even-money territory, they will be simply a Win bet, or I’ll look to wring out some value by keying in a tri or exacta. I’ll be applying the Kelly method of bankroll management. I’ll also split my bankroll into portions for Win/place playbacks; multi-race wagers, and a small percentage for action plays, which will literally be limited to $2 Win/Place wagers. (I swear ! Writing it here actually helps me to be more accountable to it!)
My focus will be the Gulfstream
Championship meet on a limited basis, plus the Kentucky Derby trail in the spring. As the action moves to Belmont, I’ll turn my focus there and play mostly the turf, and prep for Saratoga.
Derby Weekend, Preakness Weekend, and Belmont Weekend are circled on the calendar. I’m going to lay off of Keeneland, where my strike rate is lower.
Saratoga is my Super Bowl. Last year, I fired early and often. This year, I’m going to strive to be more patient, but with my archive of trip horses more well stocked, I should be well poised to attack the meet. I plan to spend more time on track this year.
Travers Is my favorite race day of the year, and likely will be the peak of my handle as I will have a long list of playbacks by that point in the summer, plus the great stakes action offers the chance for overlays and big multi-race scores.
From there, I’ll move back to Belmont, and start prepping for the breeders cup weekend.
My secondary focus is the West Coast and the Santa Anita, Del Mar, Los Al circuit. There’s some dual logic here, as the afternoon/ evening timeframe let’s me see a ton of races from the west coast, and when you’re in the throes of winter in the Northeast, it’s damn nice to enjoy horses racing down the hill surrounded by palm trees on a sunny day, even if its on a 60 inch plasma screen rather than in person. TVG does a great job with their West Coast coverage.
So there’s the plan for 2018. Would love to hear about your handicapping resolutions for the new year in the comments below.
Turfhandicapper.com 