Seeing the Future(s)

Posted on December 12, 2017 by turfcapper

I find the Kentucky Derby future wager an interesting proposition, though I do play lightly.   I took home a nice payday on the Nyquist-Exaggerator exacta a couple of years ago.   I played the first time they offered it and made a terrible win bet on Archer City Slew.  (who ?  . . .  exactly).

KD144_Primary_Date_PMS_DBGI had hoped to get money down in Vegas on Bolt D’Oro in one of the casino pools at around 28/1, unfortunately that plan didn’t work, and my local accountant doesn’t offer the futures.

Midway through pool one, Bolt D’Oro had dipped into the 5-1 range, so I passed on the straight win play.  (He finished up at 7-1, which I MIGHT have dabbled in).   But I think the value in these pools is now in the exactas.  I used Bolt D’Oro, over Solomini and Good Magic, and reversed them as well.  (I also used D. Wayne Lukas Sporting Chance, much more of a flyer at 56-1, but the coach can still get one ready.  I almost literally bumped into Lukas at the clubhouse at Saratoga when this one won last year.  He was glad handing and back slapping everyone.  I think he likes his horse . . . )   The big three were well clear in the BC Juvenile, and I think I have the most talented horse, plus top horses from two trainers who you wouldn’t be surprised if they were favored come race day.  But Solomini-Bolt’D’Oro pays $253 for $2, and reverses for $183.   If these two do make it to the race, you’ll be hard pressed to get those figures on race day with their resumes.

I also like the idea of having a small position that I may be able to either hedge against, or press on the First Saturday in May, giving the ‘Capper his best chance to make money on the race.

Of course, we’re almost six months, and anything can happen.  But that’s what I’m betting on.

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Solomini and the Montreal Screwjob

Posted on December 11, 2017 by turfcapper

The stewards at Los Alamitos pulled the old “Montreal Screwjob” (if you don’t know, google it) on Saturday, DQing Solomini out of the win in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and DQing the ‘capper out of a solid pick 4 ticket.

The stewards got the story the track wanted, with the horse named after the late travel employee backing into the Win. From the Los Al web site: McKinzie, named in honor of Brad McKinzie, Baffert’s close friend and longtime Los Alamitos executive who died Aug. 6, won the $300,000 Futurity via disqualification after Solomini, Baffert’s other entrant in the race, was cited by the stewards for interfering with Instilled Regard in deep stretch and was moved from first and placed third.

Solomini was clearly the best horse and going by the other two regardless. None of the three 2-year olds held a straight line, and it’s clear they could have taken McKinzie down too, for veering out into Instilled Regard, the worst contact in the race. I hope they all enjoyed collecting $3 in the Win pool.

Anyway, that’s my sob story for today. I’ll get those rat bastids from Los Al another day, and back the Brinks truck up as I carry the money out the back.

Meanwhile, keep Solomini on your Kentucky derby radar. He had a nice run in the race, hustled away from the gate settled back then wheeled wide in the stretch to make his run. I like that kind a tactical speed.

I used him in some future tickets from Pool 1 – I’ll tell you about those tomorrow.

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A real clip joint

Posted on December 2, 2017 by turfcapper

Ok, that was one of my late Aunt’s favorite sayings … or perhaps the one I remember the best ! Anyway, if you scroll back to Oct 21 and my post on the Clippers, the facts have borne out that the Clips are 5-11 vs the spread this year, or 5.5 units if you used them as a flat play against. The line may catch up with how bad they really are with Blake Griffin going on the shelf, but the profit is already in your pocket.

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Breeders Cup Recap

Posted on November 5, 2017 by turfcapper

Two great days of racing at Del Mar.  My opinions on Gun Runner and Mendelssohn were rewarded, and the two early horses on Friday, Soglio and Spiced Perfection were in the money.

Bolt D’Oro did not embarrass himself in the Juvenile, though Nakatani’s ride should have.  Parked 3+ wide all the way around, he still had a mild late kick.  I still peg him as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby; let’s see if he can recapture his form in the spring.  If I owned the horse, I’d walk him over to the Baffert barn and ask him to win a Derby for me.

Saturday, the rail did not appear to be the place to be, particularly if on the turn for home.  I’ll be taking a look back at who was buried inside and possibly look for those horses to move up next time out.

Was disappointed to hear Lady Eli came back with her back legs cut up and lost a shoe.  A disappointing ending if this proves to be be her last race as planned.  I was on hand at the Spa this summer to see both of her wins.  Very classy horse with a lot of heart.  Wuheida ran to her looks and works and was on some of my tickets.  Really look like she took to the turf (which looked to be firmer than firm  . . . did anyone see a clod fly up either day ?).

My anti-Sharp Azteca position worked out, getting $30 Battle of Midway on to my horizontal tickets.  Alas, my Champagne Room position did not.  She led them on a merry chase before folding late.   In hindsight, the anti-rail bias may have hurt her.   Big mistake to not have Forever Unbridled on the ticket.   The summer Del Mar speed bias did not surface, which was the biggest reason for my position against her.  She clearly more than fit on class.

The Breeders Cup makes for a great study in handicapping and particularly wagering strategy.   Kinchen’s adage “You have to make them pay you when you’re right” is never more true than it is here.   It’s a conundrum whether to string together multi-race wagers (knowing that potentially huge payouts loom if you beat a favorite or two, but it’s hard enough to get one winner, let alone three!) or to simply invest heavier in your W/P/S show wagers (knowing that the return will be far greater than an average race day with many overlaid and underlaid prices).  If you are right with 2 or 3 of these on the weekend it can also make for a rewarding weekend.

A future post will analyze my course for next year, and the big wagering weekends of the year for the weekend warriors.

 

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The best laid plans …

Posted on November 3, 2017 by turfcapper

Have been laid to waste this week. Treading lightly today. The horse I do like is Champagne Room in the distaff. I know the numbers say she’s not in the same class, but it’s a home game for her, and I thought the race at Remington was visually impressive, and the Beyers from lesser circuits I beleive are usually understated. If you add 5 points, she fits, and you are going to get a price. Her workout earlier this week was impressive.

I played p3s and pick 4s with her, and will play a sizable win/place bet. Used Abel Tasman as a backup, and left Elate and Stellar Wind out. I don’t like Elate, and I’ll applaud Sadler and Stellar Wind if she gets it done the year.

I’m against Sharp Azteca in the dirt mile, but the problem is that I’m not for any of them particularly either.

Used Mendelssohn and James Garfield in the juvenile turf race.

On the early card, keep an eye on Soglio in the second raceand Spiced Perfection in the 4th race.

Good luck. Let’s Crush the Cup !

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4 Days Til Breeders Cup 2017

Posted on October 29, 2017 by turfcapper

4 days

Just four days until the Breeders’ Cup weekend gets underway at Del Mar, and I can’t wait.   I’ve been bunkered down with my homework for the past week or so, and coming off a strong summer of play, I feel like I am going to have some strong opinions and a chance to cash well.   Breeders Cup day has yielded some big scores for me, my favorite being a $1,500 base trifecta with 42-1 Repent being the key horse way back in 2001.   On big days like the BC, you can always find horses that are far underbet relative to their chances of winning.  It’s easy to be distracted by the biggest names, and the “now” horses, or workout reports, etc.  It’s important to remember your handicapping basics and not over-react to any extraneous information.

As you do your homework, two podcasts that may be helpful are Steve Byk’s “At The Races” and the DRF Players Podcast with Peter Thomas Fortunale and Jonathan Kinchen.  Byk has every horseman worth his salt on the show with great regularity.  It’s a great listen, particularly in the lead up to a big race week (or meeting), and hearing the principals speak about their horses I find to be a great resource.  If you’re a poker player that enjoys reading people, I think you’ll pick up some tips.   The Friday Players Podcast usually has a good discussion of the upcoming weekend’s stakes races, which I usually enjoy with a pair of headphones while going for a walk, or perhaps on a drive to the track.   They do a good job framing the races, and while it’s not a substitute for doing your own handicapping, I always enjoy the opportunity to riff with good players about a race, so when my gambling pals aren’t close at hand, this is a nice substitute.

I will be posting my full card of plays for the Breeders Cup, with as much analysis as I can put together.  Its a busy week, so it may get up late, but I will definitely post in advance of the races.

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Contest Handicapping

Posted on October 26, 2017 by turfcapper

I have been messing around with some of the Daily Racing Form’s free handicapping contests.   I don’t know how big of a fan I am of the contest in general.  You have to grind out a living at the track, and when you add the next level of contest strategy in, I haven’t really decided if its for me.   I did place in the 97th percentile (3.60 ROI)  out of more than 1,200 players today, and finished about 100 spots ahead of Steve Davidowitz.   Hmmm, maybe it’s time to start penning my book  . . .

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Fly Like An Eagle

Posted on October 24, 2017 by turfcapper

Here’s the hunch play:

The Eagles are a good Super Bowl bet.

And yes, I’m a couple weeks late with this information. Having seen the story about Carson Wentz, and he relationship with the little boy who passed away from cancer, and seeing how genuine Wentz is as a human, I’ll gladly put my money behind him, regardless of Jason Peters’ injury status. Wentz is a guy who’s going to have the support of his teammates, and he can lead my team any day. Eagles were +650 before last night’s game against the ‘Skins.

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Book Report: Whale Hunt in the Desert

Posted on October 21, 2017 by turfcapper

I’d like to shout out Steve Cyr for sending a copy of his book “Whale Hunt In The Desert” – which is a great read about the inner workings of Las Vegas and finding and hosting big players.

Steve was an early adopter of utilizing the data available to him to find potential players. I find the idea of big data fascinating, and there is so much that can be measured now with technology (and can be related to handicapping horses or sports, or look how professional teams have adopted analytics).

But Steve is also a stone cold closer that understands human motivation, and as the weather starts to turn colder, who among us can’t use a little trip to Vegas … if only through the pages of the book for the moment.

If your in any sort of a sales-based business, you will pick up a few tips and tricks as well.

Highly recommended!

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Clippers

Posted on October 21, 2017 by turfcapper

Got a look at the Clippers last night against the Lakers on TV, and the Clips strike me as being extremely offensively inefficient. Very content to let Blake Griffin launch 18 footers, and shot a lot of pull-up jumpers.

The big win over the baby Lakers notwithstanding, I have a feeling that the Clips are simply behind the times and will really struggle against modern teams like Golden State, San Antonio and other teams that really understand pace and possessions, and the 3’s and layups principles. Something to track as the season goes forward.

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