Introducing . . .The Takedown Scoreboard!

Posted on October 3, 2021 by turfcapper
Toteboard at Old Suffolk Downs

Horseplayers love to complain. About everything really, but we’ll all tell you we get taken down more than we get put up by stewards inquiries or rider/trainer objections.

“Horseplayers feel aggrieved by stewards across the world, on a weekly, if not daily basis. In the mind of a horseman the best a steward can do is to be right 50 percent of the time,” said Chris Kotulak, speaking on the Steve Byk show about a controversial DQ as part of the pandemic $4 million pick 5 at Fonner Park.

So, are they right 50 percent of the time ?

I have been thinking about this for a couple weeks, so now I will introduce the “Takedown Scoreboard” where I will attempt to track and monetize all the inquiries that my bets are involved in.

We start in grand style, at Longchamps Racecourse in Paris, with the Arabian World Cup ! (Yes that’s right, I bet the Arabian World Cup . . . don’t judge!)

DateTrackHorse ResultWinningsSwing
10-3-2021LongchampsHoggar De Lardusno change (stayed up)22.40+27.40

So there’s the scoreboard, just a basic $5 quinella play for a little Sunday action while waiting on the Arc. The inquiry could have taken Hoggar off the board all together, which would have been a $27 swing on the bankroll (from -5 to +22.40). Get it ?

This should be fun. We’ll find out how aggrieved I should really be.

Hoggar De L’Arbus (with the striped arm silks) comes in on Ebraz at Longchamps. Hoggar won the race and survived the inquiry, to start our new “Takedown Scoreboard”
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Pre-Travers Rankings

Posted on August 23, 2021 by turfcapper

The latest 3-year-old and Older-Horse/Handicap Division rankings are out.

It’s been a while, as noted in the previous post, and outside of a couple of the older horses going to the sidelines, the shake up isn’t enormous.

The 3-year-old/Kentucky Derby/Travers rankings will get a test this weekend at the Travers Stakes in Saratoga. For my money, it’s the best day of racing and betting this side of the Breeders’ Cup.

The Older-Horse/Handicap Division rankings have a little bit more of a shake up, as number two has gone to the sidelines, and a couple of three-year-old horses make their debuts.

Could Rock Your World make a big jump in the 3-year-old rankings with a strong run in the Shared Belief Stakes ? (Photo courtesy Ernie Belmonte)

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Where have you gone . .. Joe DiMaggio ?

Posted on August 19, 2021 by turfcapper
Gold Panda (Screen gran from NYRABets/Fox)

Ok, I wouldn’t dare compare myself to joltin’ Joe, but the return to normal business this last spring and summer has certainly jolted my time spent on the blog, the rankings, and my handicapping overall.

In fact, I’m sneaking this in between projects at work as a just need a minute to breathe and watch the sixth at Saratoga (we’re on Gold Panda).

With the Whitney in the books and the Travers on deck, I’ll endeavor to update all the rankings this week.  The ‘capping has been up and down.  A nice pick five in late June has buoyed the budget for a while now, and everytime I’m on the verge of reloading or reload, I hit a decent ticket that has kept the ADW on beam.

C’est la vie.  It’s hard to juggle it all.  I missed playing the pick 3 here when an impromptu conference call got me shut out on leg 1, and I’ve butchered the handling of it.   The one thing time has taught me is not to get to down about it.  There’s another race, another 10 tomorrow, and so on.  And even if I miss a playback and a price, there’s another.

Gold Panda just won, but we only got 4/5.

That’s life.

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It’s. . . . Rombauer ?

Posted on May 18, 2021 by turfcapper
Rombauer (courtesy Ernie Belmonte)

Raise your hand if you saw that one coming. I didn’t. Honestly, I only dabbled on Preakness Day due to a family commitment and my overall disgust over the state of racing given the Medina Spirit doping/medication overage/positive test, call it what you like.

I didn’t have much of an opinion on this one, as it was hard to be both for or against the Baffert horses, and Midnight Bourbon figured to be overbet, given the controversy. All proved true, and my lone play was a pick three ticket that was singled to Concert Tour to cash.

Well, that didn’t work, as he broke slow, rated awkwardly and wide, and was done early. Rombauer was my early Kentucky Derby pick, given his appearance at the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I thought he would get better as the distances got longer, and it sure looks like he has, rolling down the stretch to win by three lengths. I managed to overlook this, largely due to his Beyer Speed Figures did not compare to Midnight Bourbon or Medina Spirit, or even Concert Tour.

Rombauer improved his previous mark by approximately 14 points, according to reports, which is a remarkable amount. I generally account for the opportunity to improve by 5-10 points, particularly in the first start at 3, or first start at 4. I’ll do a bit more examination of his PP’s and the short layoff to see if there may be an angle in there that I can better exploit in the future.

My selection of Concert Tour was a simple odds play – if you had run the race the weekend of the Arkansas Derby, you would have expected Concert Tour to be half the price of Medina Spirit, and likely would have been 3/2 against this field. 4-1 was right for me to jump in, and while the play didn’t work out (and it looks like Concert Tour needs a vacation to get his act together), I am perfectly comfortable with the strategy I adopted. In that case, I believe it was an $18 ticket alive to $450 – with a 4-1 third choice who had right to be lower – I’ll hand you the $18 everytime to have that chance.

Hope your Preakness Saturday was more profitable than mine was.

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Schaefer City

Posted on April 29, 2021 by turfcapper

Louisville may be the River City, or Falls City, or even the Derby City – but 48 hours before post time I feel like I’m sitting in Schaefer City . . .

If you aren’t old enough to remember, Schaefer was a widely distributed beer, with commercials like this  . .. 

Schaefer City is sitting in the catbird’s seat, and I feel like I played the derby futures well.  I have just one live ticket, which has Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and Highly Motivated in an exacta box, the payouts range from $337 to $2051 for the $2 minumum, and I have it for more than that.

While I published Highly Motivated as the pre-draw pick for a column for neophytes for Sports Chowdah, at this moment, Hot Rod Charlie is my top pick.  His work and gallops have been fantastic, drew well.  All systems go.   Highly Motivated has worked well, but caught a little trainer-speak from Chad Brown today that the horse was “moving better” which means, they didn’t think he was moving great.  Regardless, he’s been pointed here all year, and the connections declined to run Crowded Trade, so they’re serious, but I just can’t use on top off that comment.  Finally, Midnight Bourbon has trained as well as anyone, will be forwardly places, is bred to run long, and has been stationed at Churchill for about a month, and I think Steve Asmussen points to a big race as well as anyone.

So I love the seat I am in, heading to the Derby.   I love playing the future wager, as it can give you some leverage for derby day.   What will I play day of race ?  I’m free to key some other trifectas, where I’ll both protect on top with Essential Quality, and possibly key him in the 2 and 3 slots with the exacta horses on top.   And finally, one wide ticket will add in the closers in the 2 and 3 slots – Dynamic One, O’Besos, Hidden Stash, and possibly a little Known Agenda and Keep Me In Mind.

Not a ton of Oaks Day opinions – I think the Kentucky Oaks itself is pretty wide open.  Here’s some playback opinions for Friday.

Australasia – R3 Churchill – was working great with Travel Column.  You won’t get ML 4-1.   If she airs, gotta upgrade Travel Column in the OAKS !

Illogami – R4 Churchill – is a b, progressive youngster already won back for us, still looks good on paper

Maxfield – R5 Churchill – if it isn’t a merry go round, think he wins easily. . . . ran too good to lose last time at Santa Anita while wide, should be fit and ready for today.

Rogue Rage – R3 – Tampa – Just missed last time. . . . today could be the day

Creed – R7 – Belmont – last time at GP clearly a prep, wants longer and should take a big step forward today

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How to Bet the Kentucky Derby (Special to Sports Chowdah)

Posted on April 27, 2021 by turfcapper

(Note: this piece special to the Sports Chowdah newsletter, intended for a general sports audience. Suggested wagers for smaller budgets, to capture a blend of probability and value.)

The Kentucky Derby is a great introduction the world of horse-racing and handicapping if you haven’t been engaged with the sport, and its also the chance for a financial score with some of the exotic bets. With a 20 horse field it’s far and away the biggest race in the USA.  Or, for those with less gamble in them, a great reason to throw a spring party.

If you want to bet the race, swing by Hollywood Races, or one of the Maine OTB locations. generally they will take advance wagers on Friday, or stop by earlier in the day on Saturday and get your bets in before the crowd gathers.  Other advance deposit wagering platforms may work in your area, or even the guy with the crooked nose at the donut shop (none of this should be construed as legal advice).

Here’s how to bet the derby for beginners:

Simple: a win bet – a $2 win ticket on your choice – if your horse wins, you get paid back the odds (say 8-1) plus your original $2 for a total of $18 

Harder (but a bigger payout): an exacta or an exacta box:  pick the first two horses in the correct order – IE HORSE A is 1st and Horse B is second.   This bet can pay  in the neighborhood $40 to $2000 on derby day.   The longer the shot that your horses are, the potential greater the reward.  An exacta box lets your horses finish in any order – if you box A,B and C, and it comes in C, A, B – you’re still a winner.  Your investment is slightly higher, but it’s a safeguard against a bad beat.  

Hardest:  TRIFECTA: pick the horses that finish in the top 3 spots (ie win, place, and show) this sounds hard, and it can be – but you don’t have to pick them Ice cold.   You can use as many horses in each finish slot that you like so ABC WITH ABCDE WITH ABCDEF would be a ticket that covers 60 combinations. So a $1 trifecta partwheel ticket would cost you $60, or you can even play it for as little as 50 cents.   So 60x .50 is a $30 investment – which the likely win return will be more than $100 – in 2019 a winning trifecta ticket paid more than $22,000 ! 

(Have your attention now, do I ?)

Here’s your derby cheat sheet:

Essential Quality will likely be the deserving favorite, around 3-1 odds.   He’s the safe, stable choice.   But he’s not exciting, and who wants 3-1 odds in a 20 horse race.

More exciting: Hot Rod Charlie – ships in from the west coast via Louisiana, owned by fraternity brothers, and will be bet by everyone who knows someone named Charlie, but comes in off a win, and shares the second best speed figure in the race. Versatile. Can run on the lead, or come from further back. Estimated 8-1 odds

Highly Motivated: just a step behind the favorite in the last race, runs third off the layoff here for top trainer, and likely 8-1 odds. He’s been purposely pointed to this race, and trainer decided not to run his other horse – ‘why run two when one will do.,’ the old saying goes.

Wild West: Rock Your World may be the fastest horse on paper, and has a little drama in his story coming in from L.A. as they just switched off a young jockey who won the last race, for Joel Rosario, who already has a Kentucky Derby winning ride on his resume. Estimated 5-1 odds.

Like the long shots do you ?   Midnight Bourbon or Mandaloun are your choices.   Both come out of the bayou in Louisiana, and neither won his last race.   But Midnight Bourbon is improving at the right time and he’ll run all day.   Mandaloun woke up on the wrong side of the bed in his last race, and just drilled a bullet workout over the Churchill Downs course last week.   If you’re the forgiving type, forgive his last race and know that better things lie ahead for him, and you may want to gamble that it’s on the first Saturday in May.  Estimated odds (15-1 and 25-1, respectively)

Finally, if it’s raining and muddy, good luck 🍀.  That tends to invoke chaos in the race and the possibility of huge payouts. 

Suggested wagers (for a smaller budget):

$10 on Highly Motivated to win.  

$2 Exacta Box: Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, and Highly Motivated  (a $2 exacta box will cost you $12 at the window)

$1 Trifecta Partwheel

Essential Quality and Highly Motivated WITH  Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated, and Rock Your World. WITH  with Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Highly Motivated, Rock Your World, Dynamic One and Mandaloun (Total wager of $40)

Or pick your own and enjoy!

(The post position draw isn’t until Tuesday, so I have used the horses’ names, rather than their number above).

HOST A DERBY PARTY

The Mint Julep is the official drink of the Kentucky Derby.   You’ll want lots of crushed ice, a bottle of Woodford Reserve Bourbon, and the day before, make a simple syrup with equal parts sugar, water, and mint.  Simmer until the sugar dissolves, add the mint and let it steep for half an hour as the syrup cools.   Refrigerate until use.

On race day, pack a glass with crushed ice, add 3 parts bourbon to 1 part simple syrup, garnish with a spring of fresh mint, and enjoy – but pace yourself – the derby post time isn’t until 6:57 p.m. on NBC.

And if your crew is not comprised hardcore bettors, an easy way for everyone to enjoy the race and have an interest is with a simple pool – each of your guests throws $5 in a pool, and draws the name (or number) of a horse out of a hat.   Winner takes all.

If you’d like to learn more about the horses in the Kentucky Derby, and handicapping in general, visit my blog at www.Turfhandicapper.com where I will handicap the full card for Derby day.

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Welcome, Sports Chowdah readers!

Posted on April 26, 2021 by turfcapper

Thanks for checking out my work. Be sure to take a look at the 3-year old/Kentucky Derby rankings, the basis of the plays that are in the Sports Chowdah feature, and simply scroll back through the blog for some analysis of the many derby prep races.

I’ll be back later this week with full card plays for the 2021 Kentucky Derby and the undercard, right here in the blog.

If you are interested in regularly receiving my “playback” horses, based on trip handicapping, drop me a note at turfcapper@yahoo.com. We ran 1st and 2nd yesterday, paying $10.40 to win and 4.40 and 3.80 to place for a profitable day.

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This Time Was ‘The Time’

Posted on April 12, 2021 by turfcapper

There are a million handicapping factors. I figure that number is about right. There are more than 1400 data points in each horse’s past performance line, and then you figure 8-12 horses in a race, 10 lines in each pp, start multiplying them out and . . . . phew ! Are you tired and confused yet ?

But what that all leads to is the story of today’s race. Why is this horse here ? Where did he come from, what were his last races like. Pace? Speed? Mud? Rail? To lay the favorite or fade the chalk. The list goes on and on. And where you hope to end up, is Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.

The point where a favorite is irrationally over-bet (Concert Tour). And there are a couple of other horses that are eligible to improve. Caddo River showed he didn’t want to rate last time, and drawn inside of Concert Tour again, you knew Caddo would be hell-bent for re-election to get the lead. Which then possibly put Concert Tour in a less comfortable position, stalking outside. Concert Tour also, didn’t have to win. Already comfortably in the Derby field on points, there’s a 50-50 chance that this one was a prep – with his best meant to come three weeks from now.

And then, Super Stock came in off a performance where he was eligible to improve, and would be on the rail just behind the two that would almost certainly go at it on the front end. Steve Asmussen’s interviews during the week showed an awful lot of confidence in the horse (reading the human connections and their intent is another angle that you don’t always get in the form), and finally as post time approached, 17-1 on a big time trainer’s horse, with reasons to oppose the top two, was enough for me to jump in – not only with WIN/PLACE bets on Super Stock, but with a little exacta box on Super Stock and Caddo River. (Remember, Concert Tour’s biggest job was to not get hurt before Kentucky). And finally, Super Stock got the big late drop – from 17-1 to 12-1 – an indication that the smart late money was in his corner.

And on this day, the plan all worked to perfection. Super Stock sat the desired trip, Caddo River gunned from the gate, Concert Tour sat in the 2-3 path and stalked. Mid-stretch, Super Stock tipped out and raced past the dueling leaders. As a bonus, Caddo River dug in and out finished Concert Tour, to complete an $87 exacta, and the weekend was made.

I’m not a “long shot” player in general. I track some trips, which leads to an occasional big price, but in general, I think I’m a value player, you have to take what the race gives you. And you have to read the story of the race.

This time was THE TIME for Super Stock. The overall time of the Arkansas Derby and a low 90’s Beyer, and the fast-early, slow late pattern doesn’t say to me that the Kentucky Derby is going to be the time for him again.

But, this race does inform one more data point for the Kentucky Derby: Steve Asmussen with a target is a dangerous man. See how he prepped Gun Runner, and Mitole for Breeders Cup wins. See how he prepped Super Stock here, to win the biggest race at what I’d consider his home track.

And look at Midnight Bourbon, Asmussen’s other Derby prospect – the big rangy 3-year old who’s done little wrong in throwing three straight mid-90s Beyers on the Louisiana road to the Kentucky Derby. And with that substantive break after the Louisiana Derby, where has Midnight Bourbon been ? Churchill Downs, where he threw a bullet 5-furlong work this Sunday.

Midnight Bourbon has waited them all out – flirting with the bottom of our Kentucky Derby / 3-year Old Rankings all year. And while some of the others have gone by the wayside, he’s climbing the list even without a race in the past two weeks. Next time may be THE TIME.

Steve Asmussen with a target? Dangerous on the first Saturday in May.

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Rock Your Rankings

Posted on April 6, 2021 by turfcapper

Just one major Kentucky Derby prep remains, the Arkansas Derby.   Life, as it so often does, has intervened, so just a quickie to go with this week’s 3-year-old/Kentucky Derby rankings release.  One sentence on each of last week’s three races.

BLUEGRASS STAKES:  Essential Quality had done nothing but duplicate and prove his form as a 2-year old, wearing down Highly Motivated, in what was essentially a match race.  Essential Quality remains number one, and off a two-race cycle should go into Derby Week in top form.  Highly Motivated did little wrong and was less than a length behind; see little reason why he’s not eligible to reverse the result the first week in May, and also enters the Derby in the 3rd race of his season.  (OK, that was three sentences.)

SANTA ANITA DERBY:  Wow !  Rock Your World transferred his best form to dirt, and posted a Gaudy 100 beyer in the process. Medina Spirit and Dream Shake couldn’t hang, and I know wonder whether they are worth for the Run for the Roses.   RYW jumps all the way up to third on the list; best last race beyer pending this weekend, serious player.

WOOD MEMORIAL:  The figs came back slow as Bourbonic came from the clouds to win.  They say there’s not trips in slow races, but I will be watching back the trips for Dynamic One and Crowded Trade, and even Weyburn, as I think there is a future for all three, albeit for none of them on May 1 in Kentucky.

You can view the full Kentucky Derby 3-year-old rankings here.https://turfhandicapper.com/3-year-old-rankings/

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You Must Be Present to Win

Posted on April 2, 2021 by turfcapper

How many times have you heard that, whether for a 50-50 ticket at a high school basketball game, or for a door prize at a raffle or golf tournament.

The same is often true with horse race handicapping. You must be present to win. Or certainly, if you wan the best of it.

Saturday is a classic example of this at the Dubai Sheema Classic , Mishriff, who I have already called the best horse in the world, was dismissed at odds of 6-1. Now, I understand, the horse was switching surfaces back to grass, and faced a salty field. But were those odds justified? And when you see the move he made in the Sheema, reserved early and looping the field 5 wide on the turn, and held off 2 competitors to the wire he was definitely best.

But this was a case where you must be present to win. The ‘capper had places to go, things to do, and people to see. I did not get down early on Mishriff – I would have NEVER expected a $14.70 payout – but certainly would have hopped aboard if present.

I DID GET the best of it early with a $34 Extravagant Kid, who was also a tremendous overlay. But that was strictly an odds play – the horse was too live to be that long of a shot.

I will set some plays in advance when I beleive I have some certainty in the odds (probably an expectation of 5-2 or better) but almost never for an even money shot.

So not to belabor the point – which I have mentioned before. You have to take the opportunities that you are presented. In this case, the obvious overlay. It also stresses how much you need to get the best of it with all your handicapping endeavors – whether in takeout, rebate, data – any expense. I cash plenty of 7-1 horses. But not so many that I can’t use another one.

Take what they give you. They’re giving away money at the track ever day.

By the way, “fastest horse in the world” and “best horse in the world” are terms that I generally toss around sarcastically, as it’s heard way too often when a horse springs a big performance. But in this case with Mishriff, I think he has proven it well for the moment. Mishriff continues to headline our Older Horse/Handicap Division Rankings, which you can see updated here.

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