New Derby Rankings, Weekend Recap 3-31-2021

Posted on March 31, 2021 by turfcapper

Fully half the field of our Derby Gate 8 is entered for this weekend, as we approach the Wood Memorial, The Blue Grass, and the Santa Anita Derby.

Our three-year-old horse rankings were shuffled in the bottom half of the deck by last week’s Florida Derby.   Greatest Honour slides down a couple of spots, a move I had been looking to make, but needed a reason, and he gave it to me.  GH still hasn’t run fast enough to be a Kentucky Derby winner, at least in my book.

Known Agenda sat a beautiful stalking trip (the one I wanted for Nova Rags) and powered home to win, but if you take my previous Florida evaluation (a bunch of tomato cans) and Known Agenda’s beyer (94), I still question how good and how fast he really is.  I did some quick analysis of the dirt route stakes at Gulfstream this meeting.   Knicks Go scored a 108 in the Pegasus World Cup.  Ferless scored a 102 in beating Performer in the Gulfstream Park Mike.   Eye of the Jedi, who’s a nice overnight stakes, or maybe a G3 type if you stretch it, ran much faster than Known Agenda earlier on Saturday’s card.   I’m still against the Florida three year old contingent as a whole.  I suspect that the figs may be depressed a point or two, but that’s still too much variance for me to endorse Known Agenda or Greatest Honor as a Derby pick.  At best, I think they pass tired horses underneath.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks was a mess.  Moonlite Strike lit out on the lead hell bent for re-election with the blinkers on, which led to Gretzky the Great chasing too fast of a pace.  Neither was around at the end, though I still think we are going to find a spot to get a price on both of them before the summer is over.   Like the King won the race with just an 86 beyer.  I don’t see any major Kentucky Derby impact coming from this group.

Trip notes have become a big part of my play, and I am still working on the quick play sheets that amalgamate my favorite angles.  The Florida Derby was a double whiff for me.   Known Agenda had positive trip notes (how could he not !) off the stakes win – I never got those logged into my virtual stable, and had slipped my mind.  AND, Known Agenda popped up second to Greatest Honour on the quick-play sheet, and the 5-1 odds on KA vs 4-5 on Greatest Honour, should have made Known Agenda a significant part of my play.   I blew it.  Nova Rags, my pick to sit the trip ran well, but grabbed the early lead, holding on for fourth, while Known Agenda got the trip I had expected for Nova Rags.   Live and learn.  Trip noting is important to me, and I let my list get stale in this case, which has since been rectified.

Take a look at the updated 3-year-old rankings – we will have number 1, 3, 5, and 8 all in action this weekend, and a couple of the Chad Brown runners are looking to run their way onto the list with a strong effort this weekend.  More on these races later this week!

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There’s a New Number 1

Posted on March 23, 2021 by turfcapper

There’s a new number 1 in our Kentucky Derby 3- year-old rankings, but it’s not the way you want to see it happen.

Formerly top-ranked Life is Good has been declared out of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby after coming out of a workout with something wrong. That pulls him off the list for now, as the connections have said while they think the problem may be minor, there’s no way the horse will make the Derby(s).

Essential Quality inherits the top spot on the list, which is where he started the year. EQ has done nothing wrong to date, though I want to see a jump forward on the Beyer speed scale in his next to confirm his ranking, and forward progress from age 2 to age 3.

The star of the weekend was Hot Rod Charlie, who took his show on the road to Louisiana and was a convincing winner of the Louisiana Derby. His Beyer took the requisite step forward with a 99, and his pressing style fits well in the chaos that is the first Saturday in May. Its rare that we see the 1-2 finishers from the Breeders Cup Juvenile still sitting at the top of the class at this time of year, but so far, that race has stood up.

Based on Charlie and Concert Tour’s recent wins, there is little doubt in my mind that the California horses are currently the top of the 3-year-old class. With that said, I’ve jumped Concert Tour up ahead of Medina Spirit (though its a coin flip between them), and slid Greatest Honour down a spot, as he still needs to run faster to be a serious Kentucky Derby contender. He’s 4-5 lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie at this point.

Further cheekiness ensues, as we slide Dream Shake and Rombauer into the top 10. Dream Shake will appreciate not chasing Life is Good, and should be getting better as the distance increases.

Rombauer was my paddock pick for the Derby after seeing him work for the BC Juvenile last fall. He’s a big, rangy sort that looks like he’ll relish the longer distances, and his win in the El Camino Real shows he’s game. Like several above, he will need a speed figure jump, but with two months to improve off his last, I’ll tip him now.

Mandaloun clings to the bottom of the list. I though the ride was atrocious in the Louisiana Derby, he was kept wide throughout and lacked the needed punch in the lane. With 52 points on the Derby Points List he should be safely in the Derby field, but it’s not a particularly convincing way to go in. However, you could have some wise guy angles to jump the horse forward in may.

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Handicapping the Handcapper

Posted on March 10, 2021 by turfcapper

How many things is too many ?  I think I found out on Saturday.

I was leading the NHC free qualifier after one race.  It got worse – much worse –  from there.   I don’t love the ‘pick and pray’ format, as I have mentioned before. I don’t think it particularly plays to any of my strengths.   But I decided it was finally time to jump in and join the NHC tour.  The free contest with direct qualifying seats was finally enough to get me to jump in.  As a semi-public handicapper, I figure I should win a contest or two somewhere along the way to add to my bona fides. 

I was also on a text chain with friends playing the races, had 21 playbacks that ran, was writing trip notes, thinking about this week’s blog, and probably had a few other things cooking, figuratively, if not literally.   12 of the 21 playbacks ran in the money and five of them won.  Many were short priced, but unbelievably I missed the two best prices – 10.60 and 7.80.

I played two contests – splitting the field in one, and bottoming out (well, bottom 1/3 anyway) in the other.

On Sunday I wasn’t planning to play much, if at all.  I didn’t have any significant playbacks or opinions, and went for a walk in the late morning and then to the grocery store. (Did I mention how exciting pandemic life has been?) At the grocery store, I got a text about joining in a syndicate for a pick 6 pool.  I ended up in four different tickets.   Well, that got expensive.

One of the interesting things about handicapping, and then self-analyzing your play, is that there’s nowhere to hide, and no excuses when things go wrong.   Sure, there’s the occasional bad ride, or rough trip (See: Lisheen, one of our playbacks, who got bounced off the rail midway through the turn.  Yeah, we’ll be playing him back again.), but ultimately you live and die with your own mistakes.   The self analysis ss revealing – and ultimately applicable to other areas of your life.  Is what you are doing working ?   Why, or why not.  What could you have done better.  Are you putting in enough effort ?

My playbacks on Saturday would have ground out a 25 percent profit for the day, had I placed them solely and correctly. (I did not).  My attention was far too divided, and I got caught up playing a couple of back pick tickets.   Sunday was no better – I should have spent more time in the fancy foods section.

Older horses.

I’m not going to update the older horse rankings this week.  I’d like to see what the Dubai World Cup has to offer, as well as the Essex Cup at Oaklawn.  The Big Cap turned out to be a very interesting race.  My choice, Express Train got nailed at the wire by Richard Baltas’ Idol, who I had generally dismissed.  The redboard yielded some buzz that the horse wants every bit of 1-1/4 miles, and looking at the race shape, there was enough pace to set him up.   Mike Smith gave Express Train a great trip, and race-rode the beejeezus out of Florent Geroux on Maxfield, who pressed outside throughout and never had a chance to get in.   That trip, combined with the tiring track, the fact that he shipped, ran a mile and a quarter for the first time, AND faced the best field he’d ever met – I look at Maxfield’s race as still pretty good, and I think will be one I will be looking to play next out based on this result (price pending, of course).  A lot of positives to take forward.

In the Kilroe Mile, Hit The Road was on my watch list, but somehow I still missed him.  The east coast surfers going west thing proved just enough to throw me off, and he won without me.  I guess he enjoyed the weight break !

Count Again is the horse that I’m interested in again flying finish and just missed.  Would love to see him at Saratoga this summer, but probably he’s Del Mar bound.

Brickyard Ride was ultra-impressive in winning the San Carlos Stakes. (Ernie Belmonte photo)

Finally, all I can say is ‘wow’ about Brickyard Ride in the San Carlos.  I wasn’t buying him before the race off a diet of optional claimers and state bred races, but he was super impressive on Saturday.

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There’s a New Leader in the Clubhouse

Posted on March 8, 2021 by turfcapper

Saturday afternoon saw a busy hour with three prep races for the 2021 Kentucky Derby, and a new favorite emerged. Bob Baffert’s Life Is Good stamped himself the prohibitive favorite for the Derby, running away from the field at the San Felipe at Santa Anita Park. A big Beyer of 107, and an eight-length win made it an easy decision to move him to the top of our weekly three-year old rankings. If the derby was run next week, I have no idea how he gets beat. Simply the fastest horse right now, and probably by five lengths or more. He was hammered down to 2-1 in the Kentucky Derby future wager.

Life is Good wins the 2021 San Felipe Stakes. (Ernie Belmonte photo)

Essential Quality slips to number two as they flip flop spots on our Derby gate eight.

I didn’t shake up the remainder of the list at all. The Tampa Bay Derby came up light. Helium will make the derby gate, and Hidden Stash looks like a 3-year old on the rise, but I’m guessing we may see him at Keeneland and then Pimlico. The horse to watch out of Tampa is Magic Strike. Watch his trip back – pressed three-wide on the first turn, had to check lightly when the 5 horse drifts out in front of him in the final turn, bumped by the green 11 horse at the top of the stretch, then re-rallied, closing ground late. In my book, that’s a good horse. if you factor the ground loss from the trip the bump and the check, you could make a case that he’s nose to nose with the winner. Daniel Centeno rode, but if you see Irad or Jose up, you probably can move the horse way up. He’s probably a cut below the top tier of this class, but you can be darn sure he’s going to go in my watch list.

The Gotham has some interesting possibilities. Weyburn jumped way up with a front-running score, but the two I’m interested in are the Chad Brown pair of Highly Motivated and Crowded Trade. Highly Motivated got off a bit slow, and then had to check early in the race. Off the layoff he didn’t have to win, but his late run tells me next time is the time. Crowded Trade was impressive and game pressing the pace, in just his second career start. Both of those two are worth watching and will be likely favorites for the Wood Memorial. Further progression from either could put them in the Derby Gate 8, though I’m not sold that the New York contingent is strong this year – I’d like to see strong import or two in the Wood for comparison’s stake.

More notes on a busy (if not chaotic!) weekend in the next blog.

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Monomoy, Mystic Shake Up Handicap Division

Posted on March 4, 2021 by turfcapper

The handicap horse division gets a bit of a shakeup off of this weeks Razorback and Bayakoa.   Mystic Guide ran a tremendous race In winning the Razorback on a very sloppy track, posting a reported 108 beyer.   That number vaults him into consideration for the top of the division.   

Owendale, who’s been flirting with the bottom of our handicap list, was likely compromised by the track condition and being inside.  He appeared to run in spots, possibly when he found footing, in running third.   If he ran his regular high 90s figure (and I’m not sure he did) then the 108 for Mystic Guide should stand up.   

A day later, Monomoy Girl, who we had ranked fourth, ran her race yet again, stalking outside and taking over at the top of the stretch, and won geared down late.    I don’t know that I have ever seen a horse do it so effortlessly.   She has the positional speed where she seems to work that trip out time and time again, and I don’t think the company in that division is particularly deep at this point, so we really haven’t seen her all-out to win.   A classy mare indeed, and I think deserves a step up the ladder as well.  She really needs to face the boys at some point this season. I’d vote for sooner than later, as the top is a bit shaky right now, particularly at 9f.   

Neither of the significant Florida races at a mile returned anything to excite; Performer did anything but in running third as a heavy favorite.  

The Big ‘Cap at Santa Anita comes up this weekend, and will provide good input into the division, as Maxfield is expected to meet the improving Express Train and Independence Hall, as well as King Guillermo, who has not yet matched his form from age 3.   The winner of this race will have an impact on the rankings, and the latter three loom just outside the top eight – for the moment.

Check our older horse rankings for the updated list. 

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The Derby Trail Heats Up, March 2, New Shooter ?

Posted on March 2, 2021 by turfcapper

Plenty of notes from a busy weekend of stakes action, we will start with the 3-year-old rankings, which have been updated.

Essential Quality did little to hurt his number one ranking, winning well, taking his act on the road, and winning over a miserably wet and boggy track, while matching his speed figure from the last.  He stays number one on the list, with the only nagging question being that he will likely need one more step forward in speed figures to win the Kentucky Derby.   While you could forgive the lack of improvement for his first start at 3 due to the track conditions, when you see that Mystic Guide rolled up an eye popping 108 in the Razorback earlier on the card, it does open the door a crack to question if the figs weren’t a bit fast for the day — which could then be interpreted as a slight regression for Essential Quality ?    That’s a lot of assumptions, but happy that we will get to see one more from EQ before the derby, and I will be demanding a slight jump up in the Beyers.

We’ll get back to Oaklawn, but first the other derby trail news comes out of Gulfstream, where Greatest Honour made a visually impressive move to loop the field in the Fountain of Youth.  But given the speed favoring nature of the track, Drain the Clock should have been able to win off of a seven length lead.  Note that Papetu made a significant move off the turn as well, and I am ready to label the rest of this field a bunch of tomato cans.  The Beyer came back an 89, which won’t be good enough to win the Derby as is.  As a plus, GH did it well, mostly on his own once urged at the quarter pole, and he looks like he could go longer with ease.   But look a few races earlier on the card, where Collaborate “ran up the score” against maiden special weights at a mile, and got a 90 Beyer while geared down and winning by a football field.   Who would you want going forward?  I’m gonna be conservative with GH for the moment, moving up a notch, but I think he’s Shug’s Belmont horse, more so than his Derby horse.  Collaborate doesn’t make my gate 8 for the moment – but he’s in the bullpen and he’s getting loose in a hurry.

The other top finishers from Oaklawn merit some analysis as well. Spielberg broke sideways and spotted the field 4 lengths, before making a middle move and getting up for second, but never seriously threatened the winner. That result to me simply flatters his west coast brethren, and for the moment makes Medina’s Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie and Roman Centurion all the more viable. It also makes me wonder a bit about the Beyer for the race. It’s either a nice step forward for Spielberg, or another dart to throw at EQ, but hey, that’s the essence of handicapping.

Jackie’s Warrior is still intriguing to me.  If I told you that a really good two year old ran third in a major prep race, doing it in his first start at three in the muck, I suspect you’d say ‘he’s at least a fringe player in the derby trail.’   For the moment, I’m going to keep him as just that.  You could say that the wet track was a factor (though he’s bred to handle it) and to my eye it looked as though his fitness will likely get a big jump forward from this one.   If I’m Asmussen and JW comes back well, I’d keep him on the derby trail and look to go to Keeneland, which will favor his front running style, and make JW prove that he CAN’T get the 9f.  That being said, does Jackie’s Warrior deserve a spot in the derby gate eight ?   You’ll have to click here to find out !

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What if the best horse in America – isn’t in America at all ?

Posted on February 22, 2021 by turfcapper
Mishriff gets his picture taken after winning the Saudi Cup. (Screen grab from track video feed)

That’s what happened this weekend when John Gosden’s Mishriff dusted ‘em in the 20-million-dollar Saudi Cup, easily putting away Charlatan and Knicks Go, who sat 1-2 in our Handicap Division rankings.

That changes this week, as Mishriff goes right to the top, even though he’s never set foot on U.S. soil.  Last week we mentioned that this was an undistinguished bunch of older horses, and while Charlatan ran a good second, I’d wager that he really doesn’t want more than a mile against top company.  I’d say Met Mile for him, then look at some of the 7 furlong races on the West Coast, and the Breeders Cup mile.

I’ve never been completely sold on Knicks Go, and though he proved me wrong in the Pegasus, you can’t help but question the form of whoever was running after him.  Game try by his ownership to take him overseas and take a big shot, but I still think a slight cut below the best of the best.

Meanwhile, the best of the best is pretty clearly Mishriff.   Do we see him campaign on dirt this year?  Dollars to donuts he comes back to the US for the Breeders Cup classic at a minimum, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pointed to a late summer/fall campaign in some of the bigger US races.  The Whitney might be a perfect prep towards the B.C. (And I’d sure like to see him in Saratoga).  He looked the part in the post parade, and ran to his looks.

On the triple crown trail, nothing of note this week, so the rankings stay unchanged.  We’ll try to take an advance look at the Fountain of Youth and the Southwest Stakes later this week.

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Saudi Cup, Older Horse Rankings

Posted on February 18, 2021 by turfcapper

With this week’s Saudi Cup, I’ll debut our older horse rankings. Bob Baffert’s Charlatan sits atop the list, and can reinforce his position with a win overseas.

This 4-year-old and up, or handicap division, appears somewhat undistinguished after the top four. I will be very interested to see how the division develops as the year goes on, and I expect the three year olds will have a big impact at the end of the season. It seemed there were a rash of retirements after the Breeders Cup and the Clark this year, and many of the top 3-year olds of 2020 were sent to stud as well. Perhaps the uncertainty of the economy and the pandemic hastened those decisions ?

We had two Kentucky Derby prep races last weekend, with Mandaloun jumping up in a big way to win the Risen Star, and Rombauer coming from a mile back to win the El Camino Real. Proxy and Midnight Bourbon confirmed the form of the Lecomte by being back in the mix in the Risen Star. I’m not ready to make a bold move with any of them in the rankings, which will sit tight until after the Southwest. You could make a case to put Mandaloun as high as fifth, particularly off the 98 Beyer, and how he did it, running wide most of the way. The Southwest Stakes will give us one more piece of information, as I’ve been keen to see what happens with Jackie’s Warrior in his second try off the street out.

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An Undramatic Week in Review

Posted on January 29, 2021 by turfcapper

Not much of an update in this week’s three year old rankings. In the Smarty Jones Caddo River did his job.  Will be interesting to see where he turns up next,  and how Brad Cox spaces his races and keeps him and Essential Quality apart. Cox has a loaded hand, and yet another contender/pretender in Mandaloun.

A couple of good preps this Saturday with the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park and the Lewis at Santa Anita  – those two races 

The Pegasus ran to its form on paper. I couldn’t get excited about Knicks Go at the short price, but he appeared to duplicate his past couple of efforts.  The word is out on the Cox barn.  He certainly appears to be able to “get one ready” for a big race day, and brings the money with them like Baffert a few years ago.  Bears watching the board.  Mandaloun did not appear as ready in the Lecomte, so you may be able to move Cox horses up at Oaklawn and Gulfstream, and I’ll keep an eye on the Louisiana string’s performance over the next few weeks.

 in the Pegasus turf Colonel Liam took the positive step forward that we suggested he needed, and will include himself in on the top horses in the division. He picked up about five points on the Beyer speed scale in running a 99. He will ultimately have to be even a bit faster to have a huge impact with the top tier of the division but he is one of the ones. Showed a great late turn of foot when finally getting out to win late.

Keep an eye on Silver State in the handicap division. He took down the Fifth Season at Oaklawn and appears to be on the upswing.

Early Super Bowl thought – leaning to Tampa plus the points – the Chiefs losing LT Eric Fischer, one of the best in the game, to an Achilles injury in the AFC championship is a sneaky bad omen.   O-lines are important and the Chiefs have lost both tackles in the past few weeks.    Tampa is going to dial up the pass rush and give their corners a chance to cover early.

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Pegasus Day 2021

Posted on January 23, 2021 by turfcapper

Good card for today’s Pegasus at Gulfstream.

In the title feature, Knicks Go is the clear leader on paper, likely to be on the lead, and Mike McCarthy pulled this move a couple years ago with City of Light. Needs to be respected and included.

While there are a lot of horses with graded stakes wins and flashy figures, if you look at the collective bunch they’ve beaten you have to wonder about the overall quality of the race. The two with the most proven form are Tax and Code of Honor. Code of Honor comes in off of back to back 100 beyers and a pair of close misses, but those misses were to Bodexpress and Complexity . The one I am most interested in is Tax, who appeared to take a step forward in his prep in the Harlan’s Holiday at gulfstream in December, running a 105 beyer while running away from the field. His seasoning on the derby trail a couple of years ago makes me think he may have the class to hang around, stalking the pace if Knicks Go comes up a half furlong short – small play on Tax as an upsetter.

The Pegasus turf is a pretty good puzzle. The first question is who will be favored?

Colonel Liam is the morning line favorite at 7 to 2, but he’s a little light in the figures, though has reason to improve here at four. Anothertwistafate comes in off of flashy 103 buyer in the San Gabriel and a 2 1/2 length win, but you know the adage about West Coast turf horses coming east. Phil D’Amato ships in Say the Word from the West Coast, with Woodbine pedigree. He ran back to back 100 beyers in his last two starts, and is one of the few horses that Sam Son farm has held onto a share of. He wants to run late which is not always a good thing at Gulfstream, and draws the 11 post as well. Next Shares has won nearly $2 million in his career, but he has not been at his best form of late, and probably does his best running on slightly less than firm turf. Social Paranoia comes in off of a win and has earned nearly $1 million in his career, has affinity for Gulfstream as well, but I’ve always figured him better around one turn at Belmont, and not sure about keeping a route of ground. On the plus side has a string of bullet works. Cross Border is a hard knocking New York bread, but he seems to fade in these bigger spots. Where am I going? It’s a tough call but I’m going to buck the trend and lean with Anothertwistafate… I’ve had him pegged as one of the top ones in his class since his three-year old season, and he proved it a bit in the San Gabriel. Rosario sticks around and in a somewhat murky case scenario I think he will draw a decent trip probably just behind the first flight and get first run, and we know Joel can finish.

Good luck today!

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