Lecomte, and introducing weekly 3-yo rankings

Posted on January 19, 2021 by turfcapper

Today I’m launching a new feature, weekly three-year old rankings, that will track the class through their three-year old preps, from the Kentucky Derby all the way to the Travers, and then the Breeders Cup. The rankings will be their own section, easily accessed at the top of the site.

The Lecomte at the Fair Grounds this past Saturday really gets the Triple Crown season going, and a mild upset was sprung when Midnight Bourbon strolled wire to wire when left alone on the lead and getting the half mile in 49 seconds. Favorite Mandaloun chased futilely 2-3 wide all the way around, and lacked punch in the lane, getting outfinished by Proxy for the place. Keith Desormeaux Santa Cruiser ranged up late for a non threatening fourth.

A reported 91 Beyer loose on an early lead doesn’t really get my blood pumping for Midnight Bourbon, or any of these yet. The top four probably advance on the trail. Mandaloun gets reason to improve in the next after the wide-is trip, but he’ll have to prove that he can. Proxy seems to be a rangy type with reason to improve, but will clearly need to get faster, but I’d call this one a good starting point. Santa Cruiser at a glance looks like the type that may cash some checks for smaller slices, and will need significant improvement or a pace set up to really get involved on the trail.

For the moment, none of these will threaten the top 8. The list is a bit rough around the edges for now, we’ll continue to refine as the year progresses.

Who do you favor – I welcome comments.

In other stakes action, Title Ready ground ’em down in the Louisiana Stakes, defeating Blackberry Wine and Wells Bayou in what may not be the strongest handicap division this year. Title Ready earned a 98 Beyer for the win. Decent showing off the long layoff for Wells Bayou, who likely will be much sharper next time out. Silver Prospector, one I had pegged to be a player, was a disappointing no-show.

One to watch: Luminist just lost a nose between horses on debut at Laurel for Brittany Russell, getting beat by a Motion trainee. The son of Tonalist will likely be a short price next time, but a possible key horse in sequences. Let’s cash!

Posted in Breeders Cup, Futures, Handicapping, Horses, Travers, Triple Crown | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Year that Nothing Happened

Posted on January 3, 2021 by turfcapper

Ok, maybe it’s not a full year yet, but does 2020 go in the books as the year that nothing happened, or the year that changed everything?

As we flip the calendar to 2021, I find myself increasingly nostalgic.  Perhaps a combination of my age, the milestone of time, and the year we have just sustained.

I’m thankful that I was on the road in Florida in March when the world hit the pause button, and that I was able to see live racing at Tampa Bay Downs one of the last days it was available – anywhere – in the spring.   Here in the northeast, we are still at a pretty strong pause.  It’s not quite as constricted as it was in April or May, but it certainly isn’t “life as normal.”   

Still no fans at the majority of racetracks, but if I had told you a year ago that the New England Patriots played a complete season without a single fan at Gillette Stadium, who’d have believed it.

As the Pats play the moribund Jets in the merciful season finale for both teams, it’s an interesting milestone in that the Patriot dynasty has pretty clearly reached an end, or at least a sustained ‘pause’ – the new buzzword.

I’ve dipped in and out of New England my entire adult life, with stints in New York in between.  Outside of the Super Bowl Shuffle Patriots fluke in 1986, my whole childhood, they were pretty much terrible.   As I hit my late 20’s the worm began to turn.   The Parcells Pats made it to a Super Bowl, and gave birth to the 2001-2020 dynasty years.

Virtually every significant Patriots win carries a memory with it – whether it was venison sausages in the snow at Frankie’s in Maine in 2002, a gambling coup in Vermont in 2004 over Carolina, clam chowder and cheesesteaks in Brooklyn in ’05 beers in Pittsfield against the Broncos, 16-0 and a poker game in Connecticut, the Superbowl cigar stroll in Portland, to 28-3.

Amazing how sports helps to define us.  Not the games themselves, but the times, the relationships, the places.

Bill Simmons did a fantastic podcast a year or so ago – the 25 Greatest New England Patriots wins – and its so definitive and interesting that the 52-3 blowout over Joe Gibbs Redskins is simply honorable mention.

So time winds on.   I’ve spent the holiday break with one eye on the past and the passing of time.  With visits to family for as ‘tradtional’ of a Christmas as we can muster at my parents house these days, a look at old photo albums to perk discussion in the past and family history, and the inexorable amount of nothing in the final couple days of vacation with great skies and sloppy snow and rain,  Old stops in Oneonta, Rochester, New York City and Vermont come to mind.   What was life like then.  No cell phones, the dawn of e mail and web usage.  Were the human connections better?   I’m not a big drinker, but a night at the bar with some pals would be a welcome break right now – a slice of cold cheese pizza, or the best burger in town, without a mask or a second thought.

The other eye is on a look ahead.  No hard and fast resolutions this year, but hopes to write a bit more frequently here, better track the playbacks – the 100 playback challenge has already started to try to get a stronger grip on ROI.   As a semi-pro player, there is only so much note taking and spreadsheeting I can do before it truly becomes too much of a duplication between work and professional life !  

My pet project for January and February will be to try to analyze the profile of a Gulfstream stakes winner.  It can be seemingly unpredictable at times, how do we capitalize?

Still working on the angles software.  Some good work has been done, but now – a goal!   Have the bulk of work done by the time Belmont Park opens – and then run daily testing using Belmont – both to correct bugs and prioritize angles and better rank the picks.

I’ve cooked more in 2020 due to being home for the pandemic.   In 2021, going to try to carry the best of that forward – with a handful of family favorite recipes , and cooking something either epic or enduring once a week to make my weeks easier as I bounce through the oddities of my schedule and horses-playing while eating healthy-ish.

And hopefully more long walks and at some point a return to the gym, or building a home gym – if conditions are better for either.

 That’s all for now – time waits for no man, and there are three possible plays on my card for late today – Magic Dance at Fairgrounds, Sabine’s Pride and Frosteria at Santa Anita.   Let’s make this time count, and let’s cash.

Posted in lifestyle, Uncategorized, Vacation | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Breeders Cup Recap, What’s Next

Posted on November 11, 2020 by turfcapper

The 2020 Breeders Cup at Keeneland was not particularly kind to me. Despite a couple of strong opinions (and short prices) there were a couple races where I was dead wrong.

The walk-the-dog scenario played out for Authentic, and my top pick Improbable ran what I think you could call a “good second” stalking wide and running 67 feet further on Trakus, but didn’t have enough punch in the lane.

I never believed fully in Authentic as a mile-and-a-quarter horse. He proved me wrong twice, but will have a complicated legacy due to the multiple Baffert contaminated food, etc, allegations. The performance on Saturday looked American Pharaoh-like to me, and yet Bob was in the paddock giving a mea culpa to NBC, saying that he had to run a tighter ship. Gamine ran off the screen despite a pair of positives that brings into question whether she should have been in the race at all.

At the same time, having listened to Bob speak at length about training, he’s clearly a sharp guy with great ideas, who’s getting the best of the best horses. Complicated indeed.

Anyway …

I haven’t seen it written, but I’ll say it – it looked to me like Maximum Security was ridden to screw up Tiz The Law’s trip. Max held TTL in, moving in on him several times during the trip, then Max eventually cut in at the top of the stretch. Max flashed briefly at the top of the stretch on the rail before flattening out himself.

I’d accounted for all this on the end of my pick 5 ticket – but the beginning was a mess.

Yaupon looked to break a half step slow and never made the lead when looking like the speed on paper. Formless Whitmore made a bold late run to win well and pay $38, but I needed to be more than four deep to get to him.

The 15 horse, Order of Australia, drew into the Breeders Cup Mile. I’m not sure how many people even knew he made the race until the wire. That would have had to have been an “ALL” for me to get there.

I actually had looked at the “ALL/ALL” scenario to open the pick 5, as Monomoy Girl was a single for me, but it got expensive with the need to use four or five of them to get to Authentic in the final leg. That will be food for thought in future ticket construction. There may have been a better opportunity to get skinny in the final two legs.

The euro presence is one of the biggest conundrums in the Breeders Cup. There’s the “fear the stranger” mentality in ticket construction that requires use of many of them to lock up a leg; meanwhile there are enough clunkers in there to make the ticket in efficient. More food for though for future ticket construction.

The Breeders Cup is joy or pain as a handicapper – connect once on a sequence or triple, and you are in Schaeffer City. Near miss after near miss will have you kicking rocks and questioning your process.

My process proved ok over the weekend – the trip note horses ran back well, and several at prices.

What now ? I’ll take a deep breath along with the rest of the racing world, and I’ve already started analyzing my year to date results.

My play will lessen greatly over the next few weeks. I’m looking forward to the Gulfstream Park championship meet. Having spent a lot of time with Tampa and Gulftstream cards early in the pandemic, I am expecting to have a strong grasp of both loops, and will look to use some of that info as an edge in finding the “now” horses who seem to either pop up in the winter, or perhaps have a special affinity for the “durf” course.

The handicapping sheets I’m working on will take more focus, as we will add more pace angles (here comes the hard math !) as well as some more pedigree angles for two and three year olds. A cleaner finished product is also required, and we’ll try to back test some of the angles, and find a stronger priority order.

The sheets were not a tremendous help for the BC, where virtually every entrant has class and form. It did find Essential Quality pretty well in the juvenile (and the pedigree angle would even more so). It pegged Monomoy Girl, Golden Pal, Gamine on top (huge surprise) and found Highly Motivated, Amy’s Challenge, Nashville, Sleepy Eyes Todd on the undercard. It would have gotten you close to Rocketry and Vequist along with Essential Quality as logical alternatives.

The sheet does little to find European form. For now, that will be the case as the Breeders Cup is a unique day in their rampant participation.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Gulfstream, Handicapping, Horses | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Breeders Cup Saturday – November 7, 2020

Posted on November 7, 2020 by turfcapper

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

I wrote a while back on class.   What is class – simply put, the ability to run fast in a variety of situations, and against other fast horses.  In this case, I think SERENGETI EMPRESS will show what class is.   She’s fast. Fast from the gate, wants the front, and will duel you to death to get the lead. She’s done it at a mile and an eighth on the biggest stage in the Kentucky Oaks.  She’s done it at a mile and sixteenth in the slop, and she’s certainly done it at 7 furlongs, where she’s never been worse than second.  GAMINE is also fast, but I don’t think she’s seen this kind of heat.   Medication and feed contamination or no, I just don’t think she can take the pressure that Serengeti will issue.  These two have the rest of the field over a barrel.  For me, Serengeti is a key horse, a win bet if she somehow goes up from her 3-1 morning line.  I’ll key with the two closers, BELLS THE ONE and SALLY’S CURLIN underneath.  Sally looks particularly well in the morning works I have seen on TV.  Gamine might get a call in the three hole, and COME DANCING might get a little underneath use as I think she may have a touch more class than the three year olds.

TURF SPRINT

I have to say, this is a race I am extremely excited to watch.  I think its a well matched group and I will give a slight lean to LEINSTER on top.  A horse for the course, he loves Keeneland and the 5.5 furlong trip.  He got over the going well earlier this week and looks great.   I think the pace scenario here is a little bit questionable – I don’t think its blazing fast, and with tactical speed and the 7 post, Luis Saez will have few excuses to not arrive on time.  If our hero is not the one, here are a few options.  BIG RUNNEUR brings his California speed east.  From the rail, there is only one way to go, and with a clean break may find himself controlling on the lead with a chance to be brave.  Plenty of them will be coming late.  One who might get there is IMPRIMIS, who has had a pair of strong performances coming in here, though against slightly less quality.  Will have the chance to save ground, and up to Irad to work out the trip.  The two ladies I only like underneath.   GOT STORMY drew out in the parking lot, and meets a large and strong field here. I don’t like her chances to win as she’s either stalking very wide, or will have to navigate traffic.  I’ll let her beat me in the exotics if she wins. I pick sequences I might want her for very little.  OLEKSANDRA is in the same situation. I think she meets tougher than she has seen today, and will need a clean trip from deep into a possibly softish pace. Underneath only.   A longshot case for FRONT RUN THE FED, who my algorithm sheets have ranked quite high, and dead-heated Imprimis in his last, but in general this will be a class test for THE FED to duplicate his last race.  Ultimately, the horse that gets the best trip wins this one.

DIRT MILE

I’m champing at the bit to see this race as well.  With the short run to the first turn, I think tactical speed is the key, and again I will lean on class.  I don’t think WAR OF WILL will be the 10-1 the morning line makes him.  If he is, it’s a gift.  He fits in any company, has speed, and from the 3 post has the chance to get his ideal trip, whether on the lead or stalking. I wouldn’t want to have to run him down late, and the big boy has been brave between horses when needed in the Makers Mark Mile.  I think they ran him into submission last year, and comes in lightly raced here.  His form got murky late in 2019, but not for the bumper cars in the Derby, was not impossible to pull the Derby-Preakness double as he loomed boldly at Churchill Downs when the bumping began.  I’ll take a stand against Knicks Go.  Andy Beyer said on a DRF broadcast that he could have made the figure in the last higher, believe it or not, but I think its a big jump from optional claiming to the breeders cup. Art Collector didn’t want any part of being inside in the Preakness, I think he’ll need to send hard and will then face pressure from the outside in Knicks Go.  That sets it up for WOW stalking those two. I like OWENDALE to get a piece underneath, as he doesn’t need to send despite the outside post. SHARP SAMURAI, COMPLEXITY, and either of the fading speeds eligible for a minor share underneath.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

I’m reading the connections more than the form on this one, and Chad Brown seems to really like SISTERCHARLIE’s chances.  Now, Peter Brandt is no doubt a key client he wants to keep happy, and the two Saratoga races were outright duds that I didn’t think I’d be able to play her back off of.  But in this case, Chad says he’s figured it out after a year of fits and starts due to the pandemic, and in a race where I don’t have a strong opinion, I’ll take a small shot for a double digit payoff.  MEAN MARY is a definite pace player as the lone E horse and one bad b!tch to boot.  Speed to burn, and heart to match.  The algorithm sheet likes STARSHIP JUBILEE. She in fact has the best last race Beyer (103) and paired that figure last fall.  The same pattern could yield a big check.  RUSHING FALL, TEREBELLUM and AUDARYA all rate a look as well in multis or exotics.

SPRINT

This one looks almost too obvious.   YAUPON appears to be the speed of the speed and drawn outside on a track that favored speed, at least early in the card, on Friday.  The Pick.  This doesn’t appear to be the strongest version of the sprint ever.  I’ll look at Franks Rockette underneath in the event that they run 1-2 all the way around.  I don’t love her chances to win.  Beyond that, I’l consider protecting in sequences with the classy FIRENZE FIRE, and with CZ ROCKET, possibly some Diamond Oops and Bon Raison underneath.

MILE

I believe this is the most puzzling race to make on the card.  My first pass through the PP’s gave me nine possible winners, and I won’t thin too much in sequences.  FACTOR THIS rates a chance as a lone E horse to highjack the field.  I don’t think that’s the most likely scenario, and will look inside to KAMEKO, SISKIN and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ as likely to get the right trip.  UNI, RAGING BULL and IVAR will be used on the deepest tickets, and I wouldnt discount IVAR’s recent form at the trip.

DISTAFF

My narrow ticket will single MONOMOY GIRL.  Simply the classiest runner here, pointed here all year, Brad Cox won a pair on Friday.  A cut below would be SWISS SKYDIVER, and a longer chance to HOROLOGIST, who has come to form of late, VALIANCE will get a class test and OLLIE’S CANDY is always eligible for a share.

TURF

Again, Euros would seem to be the class here, with MAGICAL, MOGUL and TARNAWA all on my tickets.  CHANNEL MAKER likely gets the lead and the turf may yet be a touch less than firm, and Bill Mott seems to have found the magic for him.  UNITED is a bit one paced, but could grind his way to a check and Mandella has seemed to have an awful lot of pride in this one.

CLASSIC

A series of unfortunate events, may be the best way to describe IMPROBABLE’s three-year old season, and even the start of his 4-year old campaign.   But the big horse has put at all together at the right time, and maybe just a little growing up was all that it took.  The Kentucky Derby favorite in 2019 after the scratch of Omaha Beach, Improbable was just a touch one-paced at three.   Add in the gate issues later in the year, then starting 2020 from the far outside post with a deadly wide trip in Arkansas.  Improbable drew far outside again and Baffert wisely scratched him to await a better spot.  From there, no one has been better.  Improbable won the Hollywood Gold Cup, then turned the tables on Tom’s D’Etat in the Whitney, then showed versatility by dropping back and looping the field which included MAXIMUM SECURITY in the Awesome Again.   Improbable is the now horse, and my win bet at 3-1 or better.   Max will be my second choice.  I’ll offer a buffet of excuses for his last, including a possibility that he did not love the Santa Anita surface, that he was only 80-90 percent in a clear prep for today, and that he was given a chance to make multiple moves in a “get to know me” ride that may have cleared up how Bob will want him ridden here.  I have Max pressuring Authentic from the outside, running in the clear with option to take over when ready. His best speed figure (111) would get it done here.  I’m going to be against Authentic here, as he couldn’t get it done in the Preakness, and I think is a cut below the other two.  He’s not impossible underneath, and there’s even a “walk the dog scenario” if Max or Global Campaign doesn’t apply enough pressure, but I’m going to be against Authentic in the top 2 slots.   TIZ THE LAW  has had plenty of time off since the Kentucky Derby, where he was not at his best after a big Travers.  But an inside draw against a field with similar styles will be less than ideal, and Manny Franco will need to work out his best available trip to prevail against a field that will be wary of his wherabouts throughout. Likely a minor share.  Tom’s D’Etat at his best rivals this group – I’m just a little unsure that he’ll deliver his best off the layoff against the best field he has seen in more than a year and a half.  By My Standards and Tacitus are not far behind this group, and eligible to fill out the superfecta, but I can’t make a case for either to win.   Improbable and Maximum Security to complete my multi-race sequences and get paid here.  I’ll take a look at exacta payouts for possible overlay scenarios as well.

LATE PICK 5; 10/2-3-4-11-12-14-6-13/10/2-3-10/8-10-4-2-9 = $80 for a 50 cent wager

(I’ll play a couple of other tickets that narrow in the last leg, and expand in the turf)

Friday’s BC card wasn’t kind to the ‘capper. Got a couple of sequences going with Golden Pal, but New Mandate’s rough trip and Outadore’s inability to finish did me in. Saved a bit with winners at Aqueduct and Gulfstream West on playbacks, and got pipped on the line with 15-1 Dylan’s Wild Cat in the Golden State Juvenile, who paid 14.00 in the middle if you remembered to bet him to place. I was tied to him in a big double and didn’t get back to make the play. Brutality.

Meanwhile, at Keeneland. The main track definitely played to speed early, but whatever maintenance was done before the BC dirt races evened out the bias. The turf seems kinder to those close to the front end, but not impossible to close, particularly for smaller shares. Horses with Keeneland form held up as well. Brad Cox is hot. That may get Arklow on the bottom of some tickets. Looking forward to a big Saturday.

Let’s Cash.

Posted in Books, Handicapping, Horses | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Breeders Cup Friday – Nov. 6, 2020

Posted on November 5, 2020 by turfcapper

What do Orlando Noda, Frederic Rossi, Valerie Lund, Victor Garcia, Joe Orseno, Mark Glatt, Kevin Attard and Paulo Lobo have in common ?

Well, they aren’t all household names as trainers for the casual player, but don’t be shocked if a handful of them win this Friday or Saturday on the Breeders Cup cards.

The Breeders Cup is Christmas for horseplayers.  Full fields, great horses, and in 2020, we all need something to be excited for.  Tampa Bay Downs and Fonner Park were a lifeline to normality for a lot of horseplayers this past spring, and it’s been the one thing that myself and a number of friends have had to rally around in a year where little else has gone right in America.  (We still don’t have a winner in the presidential race as I write!)

Politics aside, let’s play.   Trainer Neil Pessin said this morning on TVG that “I like to gamble a little, and see good horses run.”   I’m with Neil.

I think the card is strong, and as I mention above, there are a LOT of trainers with good horses this year. Seems like the wealth has been shared a bit more than in past years. Several spots both days with favorites that you might single – or play against. It’s a good gamble.

Couple of thoughts, there are 14 breeders cup races, so remember you can pick your spots.  You don’t need to bet every race.  A couple of these are real puzzlers (The mile on Saturday being #1 in my book).  You can have a great weekend by being right 2-3 times, and whether that’s a longshot, or a juicy exacta or trifecta.  If you like a price, this is not a weekend to be shy.

Here’s my looks at Friday’s BC races.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

First, let me say that while it’s been drying all week, the turf should still have some cut from last week’s deluge and cooler temps.  While it will likely be labled firm, it’s certainly not the “durf” of Gulfstream, or as tight as late summer at Saratoga or Santa Anita.   I think it should be pretty darn fair.   GOLDEN PAL will be a deserving favorite off a devastating performance at Saratoga, but if you want to poke a couple holes, he draws the 14 and will need the lead, or at least to get position from there. More than one good horse has lost when hung wide on both turns.  Also, he comes in off one big figure (Beyer, I toss the Euro Timeform rating a bit) and that can at times be suspect.   The pace projects hot, and barn mate AMANZI YIMPILO  has an improving pattern of Beyer Speed figures, and projects to sit a good stalking trip.  BODENHEIMER also has an improving pattern that caught my eye, but may need the lead and get fried dueling Golden Pal.  If that happens, DIRTY DANGLE will be coming late, who had a nice figure jump in the last start, should get covered up inside and will need Tyler Gafflione to work out a trip to get there late.

Juvenile Turf

NEW MANDATE is preferred for me among the euros, and gets the 2 post for a nice ground saving trip.  I don’t discount the Americans as much as others, and OUTADORE got a nice speed figure at Kentucky Downs.  We’ll see if that translates to Keeneland but should sit just behind the pace.  MUTASAABEQ is maybe a bit light in the Beyers for a “favorite” but the bad break last time didn’t help.  A better start alone should move him up and should sit mid-pack.  Officially, I am off the Aiden OBrien runners, so Battleground won’t figure in my play, but I will be giving a good look to SEALIWAY and GO ATHLETICO, with the former maybe rating a slight nod due to the inside post.

Juvenile Fillies

If you love Beyer Speed figures, than you’re going to be against PRINCESS NOOR.   I generally do, but in this case the BRIS figures are more appreciative of her, and the eye test tells me she’s better than that.  I don’t think she’s had to run hard yet, and outworked barn mate Spielberg, a recent maiden winner.  I may not be a win bettor at the ML 9-5, but she’s preferred. I’ll protect in sequences with DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (who is NOT a hunch play, thought that’s what Friday is for me!) and VEQUIST, who should sit behind the speed and would benefit from a duel.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Any improvement from CAMPANELLE may put her out of reach of these – the knock being two turns and the mile, and maybe the 10 post.  The pace looks solid and I think she will end up sitting just off and stalking.   MADONE at a price will be coming late.  PLUM ALI would appear to have versatility in how far back she may be … in Joel Rosario we trust for the well timed ride.  MISS AMULET has positional speed and the two post and may be able to dictate terms.

Juvenile

JACKIES WARRIOR is clearly the horse to beat, and on figures is probably two lengths the best.  But the adage goes to never bet a horse at odds-on who is doing something for the first time. In this case, that’s going 2 turns, which leaves just a bit of room for doubt.  REINVESTMENT RISK is the next best horse on figures – but I’m wondering how he reverses the last result.  SITTIN ON GO was a shocker on Kentucky Derby day with a huge jump in figures, and if the pace melts down as is wont to happen in these races, would benefit.  You can’t count out CLASSIER just on a Baffert angle and one start.  And while he isn’t a stone-cold play here, I’ll point out ROMBAUER, who caught my eye in workouts as one that might fill out and be a derby type next year.  He also has an improving pattern, and is flattered by Spielberg’s recent win.

For me, likely win bets on AMANZI YIMPILO, and possibly OUTADORE based on the price.  I’ll definitely mess with exactas in the Juvenile Turf.

I will be looking for any bias on the courses, whether speed or path, and also have questions about California Form and speed figures, and will use that information to inform Saturday’s action.   Saturday will be in the next post.

*- I cheated a little bit in adding Orlando Noda, as his horse is in the Marathon.  Danny California shipped down from New York, and I take that as a good sign that the Nodas want to get involved on the big weekend.

Let’s Gamble.

Posted in Breeders Cup, Handicapping, Horses, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Game and The Glory

Posted on November 2, 2020 by turfcapper

There’s no better illustration of the joy and agony of the horseplayer than this week, as both were on display.

First, the agony.  Sunday, with a $400,000 carryover and a mandatory payout in the Empire 6 (remember when we used to call them the pick 6 ?) at Belmont Park, and a pair of strong trip notes on horses in the fifth and ninth races seemed like the perfect time to take a small swing.  A measly $30 ticket got me in the game, armed with the two singles, and spread wide in two of the more puzzling legs.

Long story short, we were singled to Bankers Daughter in the ninth, with Dylan Davis up for Michael Miceli.  I thought she’d have a good forward position on the wet track, and $2357 was the potential payout.   She broke first, then settled just off the lead, made the lead at the top of the stretch, and Davis looked back under each arm like Turcotte on Secretariat or Franco on Tiz The Law.   However, Bankers Daughter wasn’t quite the quality of those two, and got run down late.   A saver win-place bet paid $6.80 in the middle, but an afternoon squandered when she couldn’t get it done.   Either 5.5 on the turf, or perhaps a well-timed ride a la Rosario may be what she needs.

The joy is my look ahead to the Breeders Cup Classic next Saturday.  This is a fun, strong field assembled, and a number of horses I have been For, or Against, since the blog began.

Maximum Security, I was against, before I was for.  Turns out he isn’t cheap speed, and has the resume to back it up.  I grabbed a huge place bet on him the only day he got beat, just for fun and thrills.  It still cashed.  He stamped himself as the leader of the division again in the Saudi Cup this spring.

Improbable was both the Derby Favorite and my pick a year ago, and sticking with him led to several good scores this year.   Tom’s D’Etat is the last horse to beat Improbable, and Tom himself has been a watch horse several times, and is again off the bead break at Saratoga.

By My Standards – impressed out of the derby last year, won several times in the spring, and the win at Churchill as an odds play lined my wallet as well.

Tiz The Law has been the buzz horse of the spring, and summer, well, all of 2020.  I was against him strictly on odds in the Travers, (thanks for nothing, Uncle Chuck) but at this point TTL is approaching generational horse status.  A win in the BC could clinch horse of the year honors.  

Plus we get Authentic (who anchored a winning derby future exacta bet) and Tacitus, a score in the Tampa Bay derby a year ago, and a source of consistent frustration since.

So this year’s Breeders Cup Classic will likely decide the horse of the year in the U.S.   I’m not sure which way I will go at the window.  I’ll probably be hooked to any number of these in the Pick 4-5-6; but in race, I think this may be one that is better to watch than wager.  

So there you have it – the agony and the joy of the game.

It’s all about the horse – this time I just want to see which one is the BEST.

Posted in Belmont, Breeders Cup, Handicapping, Horses | Leave a comment

Everyday Hustlin’

Posted on October 16, 2020 by turfcapper

Ground out a couple hundred dollar profit today, one winner and two dirty, dirty photo-loss place finishes. Fortunately we paid $5.30 and 9.30 in the middle.

In the irony of ironies, Stunning Sky (an old playback) nailed new playback 14-1 Princess Grace at the wire at Keeneland. Of course I was married to Stunning Sky in the Saratoga Contest this summer, in a double that likely would have been good enough cash, if not win one of the weekly contests early in the meet – and that day it was Stunning Sky who got beat a nose.

At any rate, I paid a few bills with the tickets today, and its showing the benefits of cleaning up my play back list. I’m looking to really step up my base wagers when the time is right – just trying to get to a point where I’m able to play a bit more day to day than I have the past couple of weeks. The black book probably has about 100 plays waiting to be had, and today was just evidence that it can be done. Six possible plays tomorrow. Let’s cash them !

Posted in Handicapping, Horses | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Preakness Sneak Peek

Posted on October 2, 2020 by turfcapper

Preakness Day is finally here, in the most frashumbled Triple Crown season you could ever imagine.   

A solid field is assembling, and given the good cards also at Belmont and Keeneland, the day should be ripe with betting opportunities.

I’ll take this chance to roll something out . . . a sneak peek that for the moment I will simply call “the software” as I have been working on building my angles all into one sheet.   It uses Bris data, and ultimately is intended to somewhat mirror the old “Full Card Reports” sheets that were available on the web, but have now gone defunct.   Several guys in my regular Pick 6 crew swore by the sheets, and its ability to find odds and turf overlays among other factors.    I liked it’s ability to find dead-lock singles where one horse had a serious advantage and it was not advantageous to play against.

By the opposite token, it can also find a bad favorite that you may want to take a shot against.

How many times do you redboard a race, only to find a very logical angle that you may have missed, based on either speed or time constraints, or data overload ?

Of course, everyone has their own systems and theories – this is simply meant to help distill the most logical angles.  The Preakness sheet appears below.  Be forewarned, this is as yet half-finished, and there are still many pace and speed angles, pedigree angles and more to add.

It’s sorted by power ranking, a good place to start.  At a glance, no real surprises, with Authentic on top.  Perhaps a bit of a surprise that Swiss Skydiver ranks just ahead of Art Collector.  Both of the top two show recent sharp workouts, a plus.  The accumulated angles on Mr. Big News may have him ticketed for another in the money finish.  Like the third off the layoff angle as peaking at the right time. Interesting that Thousand Words fits on Speed Ranking.

I don’t think this is the best wagering race in the history of the triple crown.   Slight edge to Authentic, but Art Collector, even Swiss Skydiver and Thousand Words wouldn’t be a shock to me.  If Authentic gets pounded to even money or less, he’ll be hard to play, and may rob value even as the key on top.  If any of the others drift to the 8-1 neighborhood I’ll start to get interested.

So what are your favorite “pet” angles ?   Who ya got ?

Posted in Handicapping, Horses, Preakness, Triple Crown, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Derby Weekend Wrap Up – 9-8-2020

Posted on September 8, 2020 by turfcapper

Well, after four long extra months, the Kentucky Derby is now in the books.

Authentic was not my top pick to win the Derby, but he was on my short list of horses that could win.  I was surprised to see him re-break in the stretch as Tiz The Law drew even, as I thought Authentic would struggle to get the extra furlong based on both the Haskell and his Santa Anita Derby, where the wire couldn’t come soon enough.    You can never write off Bob Baffert in big races, and he ships to both Kentucky and New York extremely well.

The scratches of King Guillermo and Thousand Words put a crimp on my leverage with derby futures.   Futures win tickets on Thousand Words at 47-1 and 16-1 were shredded when he flipped in the paddock.  The big fella was looking good, and scuttlebutt I have heard said that Bob actually preferred Thousand Words going into the race.

Anyway, plan B worked out ok for Baffert and myself.   Among my derby futures were exactas with Authentic and Tiz The Law from February – which each paid $206 for a $2 wager.    I had several of those in the back pocket, and turned a solid profit on both the totality of my Kentucky Derby Future Wagers and for the day.    My Saturday wagering was not so rosy of its own accord – while most of the horses were logical, I played mostly pick sequences and managed to be about 1 horse not deep enough in all of them.   The payouts were still fabulous for the winners, despite Churchill Downs announcing approximately 50 percent reduction in handle with no patrons on track.

I just missed on the Derby tri … again.  Mr. Big News was not among those that I slotted underneath, and as seems typical – one horse always manages to blow up the triple.  One of my back up tickets had the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th place horses.   In hindsight, as well as Bret Calhoun’s runners ran on the weekend, he may have tipped himself.  We will put that in the handicappers notebook for next year.

Our top pick, Honor A.P. Ran well enough, considering that he was knocked sideways out of the gate and trailed early.  In a track that definitely leaned to speed, he was never making up enough ground to be better than fourth – but I think still showed he’s among the top group.  Mike Smith said that Honor A.P. “wasn’t really grabbing the track,” which I think helps show why Mike is so popular.  He always has a complimentary excuse for the horses that don’t run their best.

After the top four, not particularly impressed with any of the group.  Will look for them only in minor spots.

The rest of my weekend was productive, with some playbacks who ran very well, and a couple of big exactas – highlighted by Dalika and Madita, playbacks both, at Kentucky Downs which produced a $284 exacta.     We’ll be eating well this week !

The Preakness day shapes up to be interesting – with the several scratches (Art Collector, Thousand Words) lying in wait for Authentic, and several others looking to wheel back, may be a very good wagering race.   I love Preakness day even more than derby day.  The track is a little bit quirky, and was a favorite of mine to play as a kid, and was the first time I went out on the road for a Triple Crown race.

Posted in Handicapping, Horses, Triple Crown | Tagged | Leave a comment

Who Ya Got? Kentucky Derby 2020 edition . . .

Posted on September 3, 2020 by turfcapper

Kentucky Derby post draw screengrab from KentuckyDerby.com and TwinSpires

Win Candidates:  Tiz the Law, Honor AP

Don’t be Too Shocked if they Win Candidates: Thousand Words, Authentic, NY Traffic, King Guillermo

So it’s finally time to Run for The Roses.  Where has a three-month delay gotten us ?   About where I expected to be anyway.   Tiz the Law and Honor AP have been on the radar since their 2 YO debuts.  Carefully managed campaigns for both have put them in the gate as the decisive favorites for Saturday.

Who we’ve lost:  Dennis Moment, Maxfield, Independence Hall, Nadal, Charlatan, Uncle Chuck, Structor, Ete Indien, Wells Bayou all seemed to be in the mix at one point or another. 

The Futures:  I am really pleased with my future wagers entering the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  My play is largely wrapped around Honor AP, Tiz The Law, Thousand Words, with some Authentic and King Guillermo wrapped in.

I have win bets on Thousand Words at 15-1 and 47-1.   While he merits being about the fifth choice, I think the 47-1 is probably double to triple the odds on Saturday.   A solid position.

I have several exacta’s with the two favorites that pay $298 for a dollar wagered.  That seems a strong position.

Of course, if we don’t cash them, you can’t eat value.

So my derby play will focus on trying to connect on a tri and/or a super, which won’t be retirement money should TTL win, but the large pools will still make attractive.

TTL is the clear (and 3/5) favorite here.  The horse has been in form all year, and ran lights out in the Travers.   But given the far outside post, and a running style that wants to be mid-pack forward, he’s going to have to use a bit early, try to tuck in, and not get hung wide both turns.  Also given that the Travers is a big goal for the stable, I just have to fade Tiz the Law a bit off of the big race.  Another jump forward seems improbable at this point, and the need for a trip plus the odds will make him a race-day play-against on top for me.   He will be used liberally on tickets.

Honor AP will be my top pick, and would be a win bet at 6/1 or higher.  I think this horse has been very carefully campaigned to peak in this spot.  He’s versatile enough to drop back and get position and will come with his run late.   He retains top jock Mike Smith.  Honor AP will also be a trifecta key for me.   Needs to step forward off of what was an obvious prep in the Shared Belief, and his Beyer figures are right there with TTL.

Thousand Words is bred to run all day.  He’s a big-chested horse and a bit one paced.  I think he’ll go a bit with a good start, and projects to sit just behind the speed in a garden spot.  Can he win?   Maybe.  If he’s forward enough and grinds away he may be there at the end.  Big shot to hit the board.

Authentic has done little wrong in his career.  In the works, he looks tremendous physically.  He’s fast enough, but he draws the far outside post, will likely need to use early to lead or get position, and I have serious questions about the final 1/8th.  He’s looked to be tiring in the Haskell and a couple of his preps.   I think 1-1/8 is his limit against this group.  He might surprise me, but I’ll only use underneath.

The King !   King Guillermo has taken a unique path to the derby off of 12 weeks laid off.   He has been training at Churchill for a few weeks.  He has tactical speed, and should get a garden trip inside.   I just can’t get him on top.  I think the lack of foundation could be a concern in getting the final ¼ mile.   Will use underneath.

NY Traffic has a shot to make a splash.  His Belmont and Haskell were both very good, he fits on figures and can likely get the distance.   He has a good race over the track in the Matt Winn, where he was 4 wide on both turns, only beaten a length to Maxfield, who’d figure a co-favorite here, and was game enough to hold off Pneumatic in that one and to nearly run down Authentic in the Haskell.  The wise guy in me would think about putting him on top, and pressed for an interesting longshot, this may be it.   A definite use for me.

The rest of them, I think are a largely undistinguished bunch.  Trip means the world here. Get a clean one, or a nice rail run and youre live.  Get jostled around early and a lot of dirt in your face, you’re dead.  I will package a few of these in the third spot in the tri – Enforceable, Attachment Rate, Winning Impression and Money Moves will get dropped in the three hole, on the big trainer, no shot on top angle.  I figure that they are here just to try to get a check, and or to meet the owners whims to be in the derby.  They have all been this route before, and I think all are ridden to hit the board.

Trifecta plays – total $130

16 w 6-10-15-17-18 w 3-7-13-14 = $50 for $2.50

16 w 6-10-15-17-18-3-7-13-14 w 6-10-15-17-18-3-7-13-14 = $36 for $0.50

6-10-15-17-18  w 16 w 3-7-13-14 = $20 for $1

6-10-15-16-17-18 w 16 – 17, w 6-10-15-16 -17-18 = $24 for $1

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment