2019 Recap

Posted on December 31, 2019 by turfcapper

2020

After a Dow Jones year (up and down) I’m going to end up booking a small loss for the year, largely based on some terrible and arbitrary play late in the year.

As the year dwindles out tonight, I realize that my playback list also dwindled as we got past the Breeders’ Cup.  This is likely natural, as I do focus on Belmont and Saratoga, so it tends to get robust in the summer time.  On the other hand, I don’t think i have been too skeptical in finding trips and horses to play back, i just don’t think there have been that many.

I made plenty of resolutions a couple of years ago, most of which apply today.

I’m happy with the playbacks.  I’m happy to write in a less-touty manner.  I need to write more often.  In need to handicap off of the form more often, and less quick-capping jockey-trainer combinations.

My theme for 2020 will be “A Beautiful Grind.”

1. I’m going to embrace (even more) the job of tracking trips, and logging them into my stable notes (this clearly slipped late in the year).

2. I’m going to lock in more at my regular and more profitable tracks and try not to get to scattered.

3. I’m going to pound my win/place play backs, because you have to make them pay you when you win.  If anything, I probably under-bet my playbacks.  I need to be sure these are the focus of my bankroll.

4. I solemnly swear i will quick-cap far fewer pick 4s and pick 5s , and that when i do, this money will be a smaller percentage of my play.  The Pick 4 and 5s that I do play will clearly include more (or better) singles, and will have clearly identified a vulnerable favorite or two.

5.  I will split my bankroll into two separate ADWs to better track the playback play and isolate that bankroll.

There you go, the resolutions for 2020.

A few notes from Santa Anita’s opening day Saturday, which turned into a tremendous card with the cancellation on Thursday and Friday.  I haven’t seen the handle numbers, but i could clearly get behind the concept of a big festival day over the Christmas break week – hope it was as good for them as an operator as it was for us as fans and bettors.

Brill looked really good with the hood off on the grass.  Not the classiest group she beat, but perhaps she’s found a home.

Gift Box was as good as previously advertised off the long layoff.  King Abner ran a creditable second and should be very contentious at the G2/3 and Listed stakes levels if spotted well. Phil D’Amato seems to do an excellent job of ambitiously spotting his horses when they are ready to run well – an angle to keep an eye on !

My girl Bellafina may have needed that race off a slight break from the BC, and Victor Espinoza replaced Flavien Prat for the day, and Victor did her no favors going at it hammer and tongs right from the gate.

Tiny Tina is going to jump up and win a good stakes this year.

Omaha Beach is the man.  Damn shame if he’s retired after the Pegasus.  I nailed the tri in that race, and it paid $31.20 with Manny Wah running third. I think that’s a strategy i may implement a bit more when you have such a decisive favorite.  Take a stand underneath and pound it.

Multiple playback Originaire beat me again, running second (and of course, no place bet (9.60) this time.  His style may rarely win, but he picks up a lot of checks.

Hope everyone has a healthy, happy and fruitful 2020 !   Let’s cash some tickets !!!

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They’re Giving Away Money at The Track

Posted on November 24, 2019 by turfcapper

They’re giving away money at the racetrack, almost every day. Sometimes you just have to be smart enough to pick it up.

That was the case yesterday as Sadler’s Joy (4.70) rolled in the G3 Red Smith At Aqueduct. You just had to be smart enough to grab it, and this ‘capper wasn’t. I tried to get too clever with a couple of exotic plays, and then at the last minute jumped on Tiz A Slam, to grab some faux ‘value’.

A simple win bet on far and away the best horse in the race would have more than doubled my money for a satisfactory close to Saturday. The horse had skipped the Breeders Cup to be pointed to this spot, and was getting his preferred 3 turn set up, as well as top pilot Javier Castellano. Should have been easy money. You just gotta know when to bend over and pick it up.

Also, how great is it that we have major stakes races named after sportswriters ? A tribute to better times!

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Breeders Cup Scars

Posted on November 8, 2019 by turfcapper

Quick Breeders Cup review. Five top winners in the preview picks, but all short priced as predicted. My capping was actually pretty good, as a few more hit the board, but I struggled to connect in exotics and multi-race sequences. The races where i forecast chaos, it generally emerged, and I stand by my analysis of the main track biases at Santa Anita.

Fortunately the scars weren’t two deep, as the short priced winners mitigated the exotic casualties.

Scars R Cool, my Travers upset pick, got back on the winning track with an allowance win at Churchill. Hustled in to the Travers off a flashy score at the Spa, Scars split the field that day, then had a non-threatening finish in the Jefferson Cup on turf at Keeneland. I think long on the dirt is ultimately where he wants to be. He’s leggy and long striding, and yesterday sat professionally behind a wall of horses and a slow pace before Tyler Gaffalione was able to bull his way out, and just got by his foe late. He showed a bit of a finishing kick, but I think may ultimately be a bit more of a grindy type who may love the odd long distance races on the dirt. I’ll be keeping a strong eye to see if he can make the jump back up into stakes company, but I am already penciling him in to win a mile and a half (or longer) race at Belmont next year, and if I owned him would be targeting the Marathon next fall.

Definitely a quieter time of year now after the denouement of the BC. Will keep one eye on Aqueduct as long as they are on the turf, and I love the Bing Crosby season at Del Mar, as much for the sunny weather while we batten down the hatches for winter in the northeast, as for any particular race or horse.

Fore Left – in the Golden Nugget At Golden Gate this Saturday.

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BC Saturday Picks and Analysis

Posted on November 1, 2019 by turfcapper

Race 4 – Filly and Mare Sprint – There is speed to burn in this race, and I can find a knock on almost every runner.  #1 Covfefe is the 2-1 favorite and drew the rail.  If she runs her best race, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat, but she’s been an in-and-outer from a speed fig perspective, and Cox is 0-for-Santa Anita.  Also draws the rail, never a plus at 7 furlongs, and did all her training at Churchill.  Come Dancing has been visually impressive, but all the speed figures say she hasn’t been fast enough, does her best running outside, and has had some break problems.  Should be able to sit just behind the speed if she breaks, then will be trip dependent.   Bellafina has never been fast enough and has been off form.  Selcourt draws outside, but has just one line on the PP that shows any ability to be anything other than a need-the leader.  Dawn The Destroyer, Spiced Perfection and Lady Ninja aren’t fast enough on figs, but could benefit from a speed melt down.   I’m going to keep an eye on how Churchill shippers handle the track on Friday and Saturday’s first race.   I’m going to swallow hard and make Covfefe the uninspired pick, but will do so while messing with Spiced Perfection and Dawn the Destroyer keyed underneath and try to hit the tri with a narrow combination and a bigger bet size.

Race 5 – Turf Sprint – It’s hard to separate this field, but I am landing on Eddie Haskell as a pretty cold play.  Five furlongs is totally his jam, he’s at home, and should be in the first flight turning for home.  Honestly, none of these would surprise me to win.  Stormy Liberal, Imprimis and Leinster underneath.

Race 6 – Dirt Mile – Interesting field, and a bunch that could win.  Omaha Beach is a likely and deserving favorite, but to take anything less than 5-2 seems folly, and I do have bounce concerns off the hard comeback effort.  I’ll let him prove me wrong.  I think we will get that price on #2 Improbable, who comes in off a pair of bullet works at Santa Anita, and probably is better at 7f to 1-1/16 than at the longer distances.  He’ll be forward, and and the speed fig from the Shared Belief is good enough to get it done here.  Blue Chipper is drawing morning raves and gets Prat, and if you dig deep enough in the archives you’ll find some love for Snapper Sinclair, who’s been bunkered down in Cali with the Asmussen contingent he’s there to try to get a piece, will key 3rd and 4th in tri and super to try to fill it out.

Race 7 – Filly and Mare Turf – hard to play against Sistercharlie.  May use a little Vaslika as a B in the picks.

MitoleRace 8 – BC Sprint – I am a straight Mitole junkie, been on him since the maiden win.  Has the heart of a champion, can lead or stalk, and has been encamped at SA since early October.  Asmussen is giving him every chance to win.   I’m likely to toss Shancelot all together, will use the closers underneath – Catalina Cruiser, Whitmore and Engage.   Maybe a B Shancelot in the picks, but I think there’s a chance he’s ready to go the wrong way.

Race 9 – BC Mile – Always one of the most intriguing races, I’ll use Circus Maximus, and Got Stormy as a’s, and Uni, Lord Glitters, and El Tormenta, who may just be getting good at the right time as B’s.

Race 10 – Distaff – Midnight Bisou is a clear A, and the most likely winner.  Paradise Woods looks outstanding in the works, but is as likely to be first as last, given gate problems, mental issues, inside draw, etc.  A very defensive B.  Dunbar Road as a B.  Blue Prize underneath.

Race 11 – The Turf – This is Bricks and Mortar’s race to lose, but the price may be unplayable straight.  Arklow, Old Persian, and Anthony Van Dyk all are likely reasonably priced alternatives.

Race 12 – The Classic – I don’t think we are going to get 3-1 on McKinzie at post time  . . . . but if we do, it will be go time for me.  He’ll be a single at the end of pick sequences as well.  If he runs his best race, he’s the winner.  I can toss Math Wizard, Seeking the Soul and Owendale, but none of the others would be an overwhelming surprise.  Take a look at Vino Rosso’s PP’s and tell me what top-class Grade 1 winner he has beaten  . . . . that’s ok, I’ll wait.   Given Code of Honor was neck and neck with Vino in the last, I’ll discount those two as well.    I do think War of Will could take a big step forward, but that may not be enough to win.

Mitole is my strongest opinion.   Improbable feels clever, but given the Baffert factor, that price alone probably won’t be enough to make a score.  Most looking forward to building the tri and super tickets in the Filly and Mare Sprint, and can probably build an interesting enough late pick 4 ticket.

I’m actually a bit disappointed to find that I can’t find a big price to fall in love with over the two days.  I will wade a bit deeper than normal in exotics, but this will not be a blow-out the bankroll situation for me.    One key reminder is to be sure to be taking notes during the races, and don’t get so frustrated if you don’t connect with your wagers — there will be many good wagering opportunities on the playback, pending trips, and any biases that emerge.   Del Mar a couple of years ago was extremely productive to find horses to move up or fade based on a speed bias.

And speaking of bias, I always reserve the right to adjust my play based on what we observe – and you should too.

Good luck, and safe trips to all !

 

 

 

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Just Another Race Day? Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

Posted on October 31, 2019 by turfcapper

Breeders Cup is finally here, and as I purport to be a semi-public handicapper, it’s an obligation to publish picks. I’ve spent a lot of time on the Friday card, and I actually don’t have ton of strong opinions.

Breeders Cup is a great opportunity to come up with a big score, with big fields, and big pools, but that is most likely to happen when you have a horse that you think can be an upsetter at a healthy price.

Otherwise, you can get caught in the spread-spread-spread trap in the pick 3-4-5-6, and somehow the next horse you left off comes in WAY too often. So I suggest taking a stand where you have strong opinion and the right price. Being right two or three times on these two cards can really be day, week, or month makers.

General thoughts – given the way the main track has played at Santa Anita – deep, dull, and slow – I will give a slight edge on the main track to horses that have been training at SA for a while now. Also, in general I think the track is slightly speed favoring, but also mostly favors the classiest and fittest horses – if you aren’t at the top of your game, you’ll fade late.

I don’t think the euro contingent is the strongest ever. I generally will use them defensively rather than offensively in my plays (this is where we end up spreading more than we’d perhaps like to).

On to the plays.

Friday
Race 1 – Marathon – #5 Campaign may be the most likely winner on the card. Classier on figs than the rest of the field, 2-3 at Santa Anita and loves going long. This trip is made for him, just would like to see him sit reasonably close (5 lengths) as he dropped way out the back in his last couple. Gotta think Sadler has been thinking about this spot for him for a long time.

Race 4 – Golden State Juvenile – We’re likely to find a good horse or two in this field, almost like everyone who’s not in the BC sending out their Sunday best. We found Improbable on the undercard last year . . . . I have a trip-note play back on #4 Dapper, who, while second to Raging Whiskey, was much the best of the rest and geared down late, so has every right to improve on the speed figure. Watch out for Cali Dude, Chipper and Rookie Mistake as possible exacta partners.

Race 5 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint – One of my stronger opinions, I like #9 Four Wheel Drive on top. Stalked a fast pace and drew off without the stick in the last. Wesley Ward has a stacked hand with #7 Kimari here as well. Will use #1 Chimney Rock, #3 Another Miracle, and #10 A’Ali in exotics, and may dig deeper in the Euros as well
Race 6 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf – I am void of a strong opinion here. No official play. #12 Arizona has been well hyped coming in, and may well be the best. I might dabble as a tri key. #5 Vitology has excuses from the last two, and was the only horse gaining ground in the Bourbon, and is eligible to improve. I can’t really separate the three horses coming out of the Pilgrim. Structor got the best trip that day, though I probably slightly prefer Our Country to get a better trip this time, and Andesite made the running and held on well. I can also make cases for Decorated Invader, Graceful Kitten and Peace Achieved, so I may just fold it over and trip note this one for valuable wagers down the road. I think it’s a very evenly matched group.

Race 7 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies – I’m going to land on the home team here, with Baffert and #6 Bast. Reports had her at about 85 percent last time, and you’d expect to be ready to roll here. Of course, no one brings out the money to the window like Baffert, so I’ll watch the board and expect 3-1 or less. Higher than that would leave some room for doubt. I was impressed with Wicked Whisper’s Frizette, an easy hand-ride win, which got a good figure. British Idiom’s figures fit, but it was a stumblefest behind her in the Alcibiades, so I’ll need some value, and Donna Veloce may well be the real deal, but I just can’t bet a one-big-figure maiden winner at a short price in this situation. Defensively perhaps in multi race scenarios.

Race 8 – Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Another one where I don’t have a strong opinion. Too much European form to digest, and that group likely stronger than the Americans.

Race 9 – Breeders Cup Juvenile – Is Bob Baffert really going to get beat at home ? # 6 Eight Rings and #1 Dennis Moment should vie for favoritism. Dennis’ Moment has gotten all the buzz, but he’s shipping in, and Dale Romans could enter a goat and tell you he’s got a great chance to win the race. I don’t the Dennis is a goat, (nor the G.O.A.T.) so I’ll stick with the home team, and use Dennis defensively in multirace plays. Eight Rings is flattered by the performances of Nucky and Fore Left, who both have come back to win. Scabbard is a former play back trip note horse, and eligible to be in the mix here, and while I will not use Wrecking Crew on top, I may try to slide him underneath in some exotic combinations. I think he probably got some fitness out of the Del Mar Futurity, looked like a horse who wants more ground and will grind away at it. He has gotten a good break, and reports have him filling out and looking good this week. We’d take 20-1 underneath.

I’m chalking out more than I’d like to on this card. Feel like I will just be dipping a toe in today, if I make a strike it will likely be in the middle of the card. Also, keep an eye on how the track plays. Track maintenance can be little funky on big race days. I don’t expect it to be too souped up, as Santa Anita cannot afford public breakdowns this weekend, but the clockers have said it’s playing a touch faster in the mornings. Act quickly if you find a bias, and I like to watch the post parades carefully as well. They are all going to look good, as these are some of the best horses in the world, but if you see one you already liked shining like a new penny, they can tip themselves as well. Safe racing to all and enjoy the weekend. Will post some Saturday thoughts when I have a chance.

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Chaos Theory … Pray for Peace, Prepare for War

Posted on October 27, 2019 by turfcapper

Pray for peace but plan for war, the old saying goes.

That seems to fit these three semi-idle weeks between the final preps and the breeders cup. I have two theories on this period of time.

The first is chaos theory – when you look at the lower level stakes races there’s a reason that they are what we think they are – horses not ready to make the breeders cup.

For both of you who read regularly, it will be no surprise that I am a semi-chalk player. A lot of my handicapping is based on what is most likely to happen, with a dose of trip notes and value bets mixed in.

I lost my shirt at Keeneland last weekend, whiffing on that late Pick 4 … yeah that’s right, the Golden Sombrero … 0-4, when all the races came back with winners in the $10-50 range.

But really, shouldn’t I have expected that ? There’s a reason these horses aren’t preparing for the BC – they are inconsistent by definition. They SHOULD be taking turns beating each other up.

I’ll test this next fall – but I think you need to plan for chaos here – if you’re going to play the picks (4-5-6) you will want to expand your bankroll and go deep in a few races, and find spots to bet against favorites- who’s over the top, who needs a race and look for the hidden positives with up and comers or deep back class. I suspect the hits will be harder to come by, but when we connect it will be with a bomb (and a big result!)

If you’re not going to expand and play against favorites, better to fold your cash over and wait for the juicier spots in the BC.

My second theory here is to look to cherrypick the races surrounding BC weekend.

Tom’s D’Etat was the first of these yesterday in the Fayette at Keeneland. He was the classiest horse in the race, and had a trip to play back to from Saratoga. Al Stall gave him some time off from a foot problem, which had the added effect of a nice break off a couple strong efforts at Saratoga, and Stall almost always places his horses really well. Jing jing with win-place bets, and Mr Freeze was a very logical horse to complete the exacta when learning that Romans thought he had him right, thought about the BC, but opted for the softer spot here in trying to build some confidence in the horse.

This week I also look for those horses who have worked well with their well-meant workout partners headed to the BC. Bob Baffert had one of these a couple years ago at Del Mar (the name escapes me, older horse, outworked his BC horse) who rolled on Thursday or Friday. There is sometime more certainty in the form of the early races on BC dates than the stakes. It doesn’t matter what race you cash your big ticket in, as long as you cash !

The pray for peace part of the lesson is to fold your money when you don’t have an opinion. My bad weekend at Keeneland was the result of boredom betting on a slow day. I’ve been busy with my 9-5 and the playback book is a little skinny right now. The dough I dumped should have been recycled into Tom’s D’Etat and a couple others earlier this week.

Plan for war is prepping for the BC, much like your other big festival dates. There is a lot of workout information available right now, and a great chance to watch works with expert commentary and learn a little bit more about reading them yourself. I also enjoy the challenge of bunkering down with two days of PP’s to really sort through the card. I go much deeper into paper handicapping these days then I generally do – as I lean so heavily on playbacks day-to-day.

I plan to post my opinions on the BC races. Will get them up as soon as I can after the post draws, and remember to be aware to developing track biases on race day.

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Sweet Corn Fettuccine Alfredo

Posted on September 22, 2019 by turfcapper

Late summer into early fall is the best time of the year for eating. So many fresh foods out there. If you follow my Instagram you already know my affinity for fresh tomato sandwiches.

This idea popped into my head last week, so I stopped by the farmers market on the way home to pick up some nice fresh butter and sugar corn.

The idea? Sweet corn fettuccine Alfredo. I used 4 ears of corn, which made about 2 cups of kernels. Par boiled the corn, then a quick sauté with butter, olive oil and a couple of cloves of garlic, and a couple tablespooons of diced onion. Added a cup and a half of diced chicken for a bit of protein. Saved the corn water to boil the fresh fettuccine , then finished it all by reducing a cup of heavy cream while tossing it all together. A sprinkle of corn kernels on top for show, and a healthy dose of fresh cracked pepper. Mangia!

Made three servings.

And if you’re on the ball, you still have time to get down on Jetovater in the ninth at Los Al.

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An Honest Gamble

Posted on September 6, 2019 by turfcapper

Killing Them (selves) Slowly

I know I am rapidly becoming “get off my lawn” guy, but here’s a little perspective.

Racing is killing itself slowly for the everyday handicapper.

I acknowledge that the industry is a complex one, with the big money at the breeders’ and owners’ end, and less so at the $2 bettors’ end. But the industry is just crushing the little guy.

I bet more than $2 a race, but I can’t buy the DRF in my town. Two stores get exactly one copy, so if you aren’t the first one there, tough nuggets.

I sometimes buy the form online and am slowly transitioning to the Ipad. Seems great, must be a cost savings getting the form online. Nope. $10 in the store, $9.95 online.

They had my password and accounts so screwed up last spring, that it took weeks to unscramble. I was going to try their DRF bets product, but they never could figure out why my account wouldn’t open and work.

Going to the track is becoming an “event”. I’m not allowed in the Stretch at Saratoga apparently, and was met with some disdain for inquiring about the cost. Apparently I’m not a corporation buying a season box, so they’ll get back to me.

Used to walk in the track for 2-3 bucks, grab a form for five, and you were good to go.

Thirsty? That bottle of water will be $5.

I’ve adapted. I play from home more. I kinda like TVG. The hosts are fun, and they manage to keep my account working and open, though the 2 minute delay causes me to sometimes get shut out.

I use another vendor’s stable alert product. Recently that has been screwed up, as it posts the races in Greenwich mean time, and I don’t mean Connecticut. I used their chat to ask for help. Said they couldn’t help, I should E mail their support. I emailed support. They said they couldn’t help at all, and that I should contact outlook.

Thanks for the help.

It ain’t easy to win at the track. Scores of books will tell you so.

But more and more, it seems like they don’t even want to invite you in for an honest gamble.

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Life As A Low Roller

Posted on September 2, 2019 by turfcapper

I have been interested in contest play for a while now, but the DRF folded their contest site just as I was looking to get involved, and several of the others ask for a $50 membership before you even have a chance to audition them. While that’s not a huge sum, it would be nice to know what you’re getting into, and with take out and data costs, we horseplayers need to watch the bankroll drain with every step.

The Saratoga “Low Roller” contest seemed like a good way to get involved and get out of the house on Labor Day weekend.

Pretty simple format – make a $2 win-place-show bet on one horse in five races (out of the first 11 on the card). Here we go:

9:53 AM- hop in the Hummer, on our way to the low roller. We are going to crush it

10 AM -Peter Gabriel on the radio. I take this as a good sign. Grab an iced coffee, black for the ride. I already had two café au lait’s this morning – going to be hyper caffeinated for this.

10:05 on the highway… Let’s go !!!

11:11 Am – stopped for gas and a bottle of water that’s I’ll bring into the track. The water is $1.04. That’s Positive EV on the water. Have found a block of 90s one hit wonders on the radio… First winner of the day!

11:50… Huge traffic back up on the way into Saratoga… Apparently everyone else had the same idea I did today. Ok, it wasn’t THAT bad. As it turns out it’s “sweatshirt giveaway” day. Was a mess trying to park as after the Travers with the long weekend a lot of the regular spots aren’t parking cars. Took a couple laps and grabbed the first one who looked like they had a clue.

The Ludlow St. entrance was a mess, people literally lined up across street and around the block. I walk over to East St . where it’s only marginally better, and watch the first race on my phone while waiting in line. As my friend Al said ‘People love free shit.’ Inside I fjord the sweatshirt line to get to the Fourstardave Bar to register.

12:40 pm – Registration was quick and easy, clear rules sheet issued, and we’re on our way to the Shake Shack for lunch and to make our first play.

Service takes forever, and there’s a little too much mayo in the shake sauce, but the burger is a solid B.

I’m eager to get in the game and identify the 1 horse with Junior Alvarado as having a shot at 10-1. A bomber wins, but the fave runs second as we grab third, but pay just 3.60 to show.

My Galina dropping in from a pair of stakes. Bet at 8/5, goes off at even, and gets run down late, winning a bob for 2nd. Pays 2.60 and 2.10. Well, we won’t be DFL. I thought I might be able to get a quick cash grift at 8/5 to get me back on square footing, but we have one wheel in the sand right now. Maiden claimers next – maybe we can create some chaos.

Chaos ensues. We Run fourth, lose bob for third with 18-1 (off 25-1) Aleph, inside, never really involved for the win. A dirty D. Wayne Lukas horse wins at 23 -1. Nearly impossible to find (rough start in last) but speed figs no where close. Wayne was smiling in the paddock, standing between two blondes. That should have been the tip, ‘cause the Form showed nothing.

3:23. I Like the castellano Morley horse. 30 pct together. Takes over at the 3/8 pole and Wins for fun. Bet at 10-1, off at 7-1, pays 17.40 and 6.70. Of course, didn’t use him in the contest, as I was “saving” last two plays for a bigger hit.

Three plays down in the contest. I have a Balance of 20.10 in 166th place. The leader was at 127.90 before the Castellano race. Would have added 18.10 and moved me into 33rd.

Race 7 – My contest play is Osaka Girl. I bet at 13 drifts to 17. She then dumps Johnny V and runs off. Scratches and I cancel the bet. I thought about using 8 horse Mirabelli Mei with maragh but would have simply been a stab so I pass. Then the 7 flips and runs off. It’s a gong show.

4:43 p.m. –

Contest play , race 9 #9 Jennemily Carmouche for Carlos Martin. Speed figure from last fits. 10-1 ml, now 7-1 w two scratches. Unlucky on the odds but suppose it’s good she’s getting bet a little. And I need two more plays, and prices, so this is one.

She warmed up hard. Wanted lead but didn’t make it. Stalked 3 path, made lead midstretch and surrendered then like a frenchman to finish fifth.

With my last bet due, and already out of it (needing a 40-1 shot to get the contest money ) I simply play Frank’s Rockette to try to bring a little cash home in my pocket).

Guy standing beside me declares Frank a winner at the eighth pole, when Irad and Perfect Alibi re-rallies up the rail to nail us. Thanks, pal.

3.40 to place and 2.50 to show, and we have turned $30 into $14 and 121st place among 223 entries.

I cash out and bail before the last race, as my Pick 3 went down with Frank’s Rockette. Of course the third legs connects to add insult to injury. That would have been a daymaker.

A quick stop at Smashburger on the way home is the consolation prize.

What did I learn from the contest? Well, a few things. My day was over pretty early, as the contest was characterized by someone hitting the first few races and quickly building a $100+ bankroll. I knew I’d have to hit a 30-1 type shot with my third or fourth play to have any shot to win.

Also, I don’t think this is remotely my strength. My strengths are trip note playbacks, wagering strategy/bet construction and turf handicapping (particularly trifectas), and pick 3-4-5 play, little of which is reflected in the $2 WPS format of the low roller. I can’t tell you the last time I made an across the board bet of my own volition. The only times I think it’s effective is on days with huge pools, and even then I usually seek value in other areas.

Will I play more contests ? I won’t be rushing to do so, but I wouldn’t rule it out, either. Perhaps on a more significant race day with a big stakes card (today had a bunch of first-time starter maidens – which is really a weak spot for me as I don’t enthusiastically pursue work out reports – I chose to watch one and gather notes for later races), and also to play a format that allows for a more wide range of bets that plays to my strengths.

Home at 8:38 p.m. Long day, but worth it since rain did in most of the card for closing Monday.

Posted in Handicapping, Horses, Saratoga Race Course, Summer | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Perfectly Wrong

Posted on August 25, 2019 by turfcapper

Well, that didn’t work. My spot play on Scars Are Cool did not pan out, as he ran a to a mid pack result about 10 lengths behind Code of Honor, who stamped himself as one of the two best in this 3-yo crop. Code took a step forward with a preliminary 105 beyer, a new best. The lack of strong speed figures in this group, as well as the lack of a decisive “best” horse played into my decision to back the long shot. Instead, we got a tremendously formful 1-2-3 finish, which I would not have been keen to play in that manner. A few bucks lost, no harm done, and a few more points of info on this group.

Multiple time playback Mind Control finally got a clean outside trip and some what shockingly ran down “best horse in the word” Shancelot – who controlled the early pace, but seemed to wander down too close to a rail that wasn’t great, and on a track that ultimately played better to outside closers. Mutuels of 22.80 to win and 8.60 to place saved my day from disaster.

Will be interesting to see how this day plays back. I bet for a “dead rail” all day, but ultimately it may have been more of a “tiring” track. True class horses ran their races. Mitole ran huge in the Forego, and the Midnight Bisou stretch duel was one for the ages. Add in beautiful 80 degree low humidity weather and a near perfect day at venerable Saratoga race course.

Tacitus is an impressive horse. He ended up on the lead (with blinkers on) and stayed a quick pace. He’s just missed in so many ways, I have to believe there is a G1 for him out there. He just lacks a little late turn of foot. He’s always coming late, but will need perfect timing.

The Travers also, unfortunately, signals that summer is winding down along with the best of the race season.

I’ll dabble with playbacks at the end of the Saratoga meet, and with what’s been announced as a shortened Belmont meet before they head over to Aqueduct. One last push for the BC , then I will really slow until the preps begin again.

Posted in Belmont, Breeders Cup, Handicapping, Horses, Saratoga Race Course, Summer, Travers | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment