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For entertainment purposes only, here are my plays against the super contest line. I didn’t invest a lot of time this week, and don’t love the card

Bills +4.5

Lions +9.5

Jets +7.5

San Fran +9.5

Chargers +3.5

Dog city ….

My super contest math checks out… Would be sitting in the top 40 in the contest right now (if I plug a 3-2 week in for the one I missed). A perfect 5-0 week last week.

32 –16–2 on the season, and that’s the high-water mark of the year.

this week’s plays

Cincinnati -3

New York Giants +6

Oakland +10.5

Green Bay +3.5

Tennessee +6.5

Commentary: Tennessee is on an interesting ride, and gets a significant conference game against Houston, which will be an emotional spot for Mike Vrabel’s guys on the heels of a bad loss to Indy. Houston owner Bob McNair‘s death, makes this interesting spot for Houston as well, though given his “inmates running the prison” comments of a few years ago and wondering if there’s no love lost there.

Green Bay nearly fits the math model, and is in a back-to-the-wall spot where they can keep themselves in the playoff picture. May be a do-or-die spot for Coach McCarthy.

Oakland comes east, and faces a resurgent ravens team with young quarterback Lamar Jackson, but getting 10 1/2 is too many

Leans would be the Jets +9 1/2, as well as Arizona +12 1/2 both math model qualifiers

Patriots in an interesting spot off of the break, but with Brady on the injury list, as well as having a game looming with the Vikings next week. Feels like a close patriots win, and low-scoring. Arizona gets the Chargers while the Chargers have Pittsburgh on the horizon next week, good flat spot for AC to catch them.

On the horse racing front, I gave War of Will a call in my breeders cup preview, I was just a couple of weeks to early as he won today ….

Rams and Chiefs lived up to the hype … no one was ever out of it !

Really an incredible game, and got just enough big defensive plays that it didn’t make a mockery of defense. Officiating was a bit sketchy, and even on that last punt, one official reached for a flag on Tyreek Hill before thinking better of it!

Chiefs cover the +3.5 spread, so I sweep the board with a 5-0 week on my Super Contest plays.

Season total is now 32-16-2, which is 66.6 percent for the season, and on a 100 unit basis, +1440 for the year. Looking forward to checking the SC standings this week and see where we are shaping up !

Time to flip over to the Zags on ESPN2 …

Happy Thanksgiving everyone – will post my bagel stuffing recipe soon !

I’ll post more on horses again soon, but it’s the quietest time of the year. Keep an eye on Jimmy Jerkens Illudere in the 6th at Aqueduct today. Javy Castellano gets on, so expect him to be live.

It’s the time of year in the NFL where the bad teams start to get ridiculously high lines, plus they’ve been told how bad they are all year, plus opponents let down against them. Expect to see a lot of +plays here moving forward.

Today’s SuperContest card

Bal +6.5

Dal +3.5

Ind -2 (great flat spot for Tennessee off pats win with Houston looming)

Oak +5.5 (should AZ Lay points to anyone ?)

Kc +3.5

Kansas City and the Rams is the NFL game of the year… Having seen a bit of both of them, I don’t have enough faith in the Rams defense to be able to stop Kansas City … This will be a big play for me.

Good luck this weekend !

Here are my SuperContest plays for this week –

Ten +6.5

Tampa -3

Miami +9.5

Seattle +9.5

Dallas +6.5

I will say this is my lowest confidence week yet. Tampa would be my best bet. Seattle in a conference game but a spot where rams may be looking ahead to KC.

The lines were pretty good. Not much variance between mine and theirs, and AZ, Bills and Raiders are tough for me to endorse right now, even though my math model may.

Gave some thought to Indy as well.

Interesting weekend, but surprisingly chalked out.

Accelerate was much the best in the Classic, and in my book deserves horse of the year.

Remarkable job by Peter Miller doubling up with Stormy Liberal and Roy H.

I couldn’t get much handicapping traction all weekend.  I am frequently accused of being a chalk-eater with my picks, but at an event like the Breeders Cup i find it hard to eat the chalk with win-place bets, and it’s equally tough to pair up vertical or horizontal wagers with so many good horses in the fields.   Those that connect are richly rewarded, and due credit is deserved.

A look back and we were around it all weekend.  World of Trouble and Stormy Liberal were on many tickets and hooked up in the stretch. Bellafina, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze got their trips and both wound up ‘good’ fourths if there is such a thing.   Used Enable on top and as a single but didn’t connect there.  Divisidero drew in, and I used him at 36-1 and ran fourth.  Nothing wrong with the logic there, but didnt’ connect.  Abel Tasman was all done.  Definitely a risk that I took, and I don’t think I’ll be playing any more Baffert’s off a similar dud in the future.  When the tank is empty, it’s empty.

My biggest whiffs were being against City of Light, who was also much the best;  I think the Javier Castellano factor helped, as he seemed to figure the track out early, and gave the needed ride.   I didn’t like a work before the race – and I was dead wrong.  Will try to analyze what I’m missing there.    Accelerate was a known entity, I just felt like this was a spot to play against, and he simply proved his quality even more.

Keeping the blog has been an interesting exercise this year.  Writing my thoughts certainly helps to crystalize them, and documenting my play has revealed much as well.   I stunk the last month or two.   But my real life job has been crazy busy.   I think next year after Saratoga, I’ll fold my money over for a couple of months, and likely spot play the BC more so than this year, where i was knee-deep.  The allure of big exotics is enticing, but the volume of races is semi-punishing to ‘cap and play.  (It’s sort of like unloading the bank roll the first week at the Spa)   I will look to be more selective.   One or two good winners can make a weekend in the BC; this year, with all the chalk, was not that year for me.

Personal life slows down for me in the winter; I’m looking forward to the fall Del Mar meet, both for the views of the sunny weather while the Northeast starts to dip into the deep freeze, and for the chance to get back into a regular handicapping rhythm, and start loading up the black book with horses to play back.

Per usual, ran out of time, so here’s the readers digest version  . . .

Race 3-Filly and Mare sprint… Marley’s Freedom is the most likely winner, but at a price I would look at Mia Mischief who is game every time. If she can sit just off of the speed, she will get first run.

Race 4 Turf sprint… While I have been a big fan of Disco Partner for a long time, I have to fade here with soft turf and the way the course played on Friday.  Would only use underneath.

I want pure speed, so I will go with World of Trouble, who I have had my eye on since Tampa Bay earlier in the year.  Richard’s Boy and Stormy Liberal underneath.

The dirt mile is a glorified seven furlong race, at one turn at Churchill… I am fading City of Light here, and Catalina Cruiser will be too short for me to play though appears to be at the class of the field based on speed figures.  I will take Firenze Fire, hopefully around 5 to 1, to get a good stalking trip.

In the Chad Brown Invitational, I will go with Fourstar Crook, who appears to be the now horse, and had great turn off foot over the course with the given in it last time. Santa Monica, and Eziya underneath.

Sprint –  if the track is playing the same way I will take a stab with Promises Fulfilled to get a bit of a price… Speed to burn, and may not get caught. Limousine Liberal comes off of a tough trip, but is going to get bet at Churchill, Roy H and Imperial Hint will be right there at the wire as well

The Mile shapes up as extremely competitive race, but I don’t have a strong opinion.

The Distaff, I think Abel Tasman goes to lead and doesn’t look back.

In the turf, I’m going to take everyone’s word for it that Enable is the winner, and will simply tried to get something underneath her in the trifecta… Channel Maker, Glorious Empire, Robert Bruce, and Waldgeist

The Classic… I just can’t bring myself to play Thunder Snow at all based on his last run it at Churchill.  They have pointed the horse here all year, if he beats me, so be it

I am going to try to beat Accelerate just on general principles that he is out of town, and drawn in the 14 post. Again not a huge shock if he were to win, but I’m just going to play against.   

Playing Bob Baffert’s horses is not the most clever of opinions, but that’s where I am landing.   I don’t 100% trust the speed figure that West Coast earned (only a 97) last time out… If that number is real he’s not fast enough to win anymore.  Or he has to improve several lengths in order to be in the mix.   Also, he has a penchant for finishing second, is a bit of a grinder who does not have an explosive finish. 

This lead me to McKinzie, who I don’t love of of one prep, and I don’t quite believe the 107 Beyer that he earned at Philadelphia park.  However, if he is 4-1 or above I believe that’s where my money will land, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that he gets a block or two from West Coast in helping to hang Accelerate wide.  

Catholic Boy rates a look as well, a square price will make me strongly consider him as well.   My most likely play in this race is exactas with this trio, as I don’t love any of them individually enough to make a significant play.  

World of Trouble, Firenze Fire and Fourstar Crook will comprise my largest win bets of the day.  

Good luck everyone, should be a great day of racing !