NFL Week 14 – Dec. 9, 2018

My NFL enthusiasm is petering out with the end of the year. Quick hits.

Atl +5.5

Buffalo -3

Cleveland +2.5

Raiders +10.5

Det -2.5

We’ll see how Green Bay reacts to the coach firing… Seems like too many points. Big conference game for Buffalo at home helps set tone for next year… same thing for Cleveland with a salad opponent at home. Steelers simply giving up to many points to the moribund raiders … Arizona already one there Super Bowl last week with the win over Green Bay, like Detroit to get them in a flat spot … leans on the fish +7.5, and KC -6.5, and the Seahawks +3.5

I’ll update the Super Contest status later this week.

Enjoy your Sunday.

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NFL WEEK 13 – Dec. 2, 2018

For entertainment purposes only, here are my plays against the super contest line. I didn’t invest a lot of time this week, and don’t love the card

Bills +4.5

Lions +9.5

Jets +7.5

San Fran +9.5

Chargers +3.5

Dog city ….

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Pride cometh in late fall

Was that not predictable?

After counting our chickens last week and giving you a stuffing recipe, my plays this past week were a real turkey. 1-4 against the super contest line, with the Giants giving us the only win.

Seems like we were on the right side of the Oakland game, but a late scoop and score fumble recovery gave Baltimore what’s essentially essentially a backdoor cover.

Green Bay and Houston were both in the thick of it early and faltered late.

Even leans on the Jets and Arizona fall through, with the Jets getting to the 2 yard line and being unable to score late which would’ve been a backdoor cover in our favor.

This gambling is a tough racket, ain’t it ?

Regardless, 33-20-2 on the year. That’s plus 1100 and Miami for Pegasus weekend is still viable.

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NFL Week 12 – November 25, 2018

My super contest math checks out… Would be sitting in the top 40 in the contest right now (if I plug a 3-2 week in for the one I missed). A perfect 5-0 week last week.

32 –16–2 on the season, and that’s the high-water mark of the year.

this week’s plays

Cincinnati -3

New York Giants +6

Oakland +10.5

Green Bay +3.5

Tennessee +6.5

Commentary: Tennessee is on an interesting ride, and gets a significant conference game against Houston, which will be an emotional spot for Mike Vrabel’s guys on the heels of a bad loss to Indy. Houston owner Bob McNair‘s death, makes this interesting spot for Houston as well, though given his “inmates running the prison” comments of a few years ago and wondering if there’s no love lost there.

Green Bay nearly fits the math model, and is in a back-to-the-wall spot where they can keep themselves in the playoff picture. May be a do-or-die spot for Coach McCarthy.

Oakland comes east, and faces a resurgent ravens team with young quarterback Lamar Jackson, but getting 10 1/2 is too many

Leans would be the Jets +9 1/2, as well as Arizona +12 1/2 both math model qualifiers

Patriots in an interesting spot off of the break, but with Brady on the injury list, as well as having a game looming with the Vikings next week. Feels like a close patriots win, and low-scoring. Arizona gets the Chargers while the Chargers have Pittsburgh on the horizon next week, good flat spot for AC to catch them.

On the horse racing front, I gave War of Will a call in my breeders cup preview, I was just a couple of weeks to early as he won today ….

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Stuff Your Turkey

Here’s my bagel stuffing recipe.

5-6 large bagels from your best local bagel store (Ess a bagel, if you are in Manhattan) … mix egg, plain, wheat, rye.

I’m not a big measurer as I cook. Learned to cook in a restaurant kitchen that was a pretty free flowing environment … the portioning got done on the front end. I’ve done my best to capture the rough measurements here, but I fully advocate tweaking this to meet your druthers.

Ingredients

Cut into roughly 1/2 inch cubes (I like to vary the size a little bit, mixes up the texture.

1 cup chopped celery 1/4 inch dice

1 cup chopped carrot

1 large onion, medium dice

3/4 cup Craisins

3 tablespoons bells seasoning

1 Granny Smith Apple, diced

1/2 package jimmy dean original sausage (roughly 1 cup)

Chicken stock

tsp Salt

tsp Pepper

1/2 tsp Garlic powder

Butter

Brown and crumble sausage and set aside.

Drain most of the leftover fat, leave a tablespoon or two in the pan.

Lightly sauté carrots , celery and onions, add garlic power and bells seasoning late.

Add apple craisins and 1-2 cups chicken stock as needed to reconstitute craisins.

Add salt and pepper, roughly 1 teaspoon each.

Butter a 9×13 baking pan, combine bagels with the sauté, until all bagels are moist (damp but not sopping wet) , add additional chicken stock as necessary.

Bake @325 (along with your turkey) covered in foil for 1 hour.

Last 10 minutes remove foil, add some crumbled butter pats on top to crisp top if preferred.

I’m not a big fan of cranberry sauce. I grew up in a household where the cranberry sauce came straight from the can, stood in a perfect can shape in a dish. I can’t stand most things with that Jell-o texture, so I add the cranberries right to the stuffing. I’ve had a couple of borderline arguments whether the cranberries belong in the stuffing, but for me it’s the right move.

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

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Instant ReAx – Monday Night Football

Rams and Chiefs lived up to the hype … no one was ever out of it !

Really an incredible game, and got just enough big defensive plays that it didn’t make a mockery of defense. Officiating was a bit sketchy, and even on that last punt, one official reached for a flag on Tyreek Hill before thinking better of it!

Chiefs cover the +3.5 spread, so I sweep the board with a 5-0 week on my Super Contest plays.

Season total is now 32-16-2, which is 66.6 percent for the season, and on a 100 unit basis, +1440 for the year. Looking forward to checking the SC standings this week and see where we are shaping up !

Time to flip over to the Zags on ESPN2 …

Happy Thanksgiving everyone – will post my bagel stuffing recipe soon !

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NFL Week 11 – Nov. 18, 2018

I’ll post more on horses again soon, but it’s the quietest time of the year. Keep an eye on Jimmy Jerkens Illudere in the 6th at Aqueduct today. Javy Castellano gets on, so expect him to be live.

It’s the time of year in the NFL where the bad teams start to get ridiculously high lines, plus they’ve been told how bad they are all year, plus opponents let down against them. Expect to see a lot of +plays here moving forward.

Today’s SuperContest card

Bal +6.5

Dal +3.5

Ind -2 (great flat spot for Tennessee off pats win with Houston looming)

Oak +5.5 (should AZ Lay points to anyone ?)

Kc +3.5

Kansas City and the Rams is the NFL game of the year… Having seen a bit of both of them, I don’t have enough faith in the Rams defense to be able to stop Kansas City … This will be a big play for me.

Good luck this weekend !

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Ho-Hum

It was a ho-hum week, finishing 3-2.  So that’s a profit made, but not going to vault me up the standings of the Supercontest.  Would have gone 2-2-1 on the other plays i considered, so not too bad, and my evaluation that the lines were pretty good was also solid.

Overall, 27-16-2, or +940 on a 100-unit basis.  Getting closer to that weekend in Miami Beach, which is good, since they’re ALREADY talking about snow here in the Northeast.

 

 

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NFL week 10 – Nov. 11, 18

Here are my SuperContest plays for this week –

Ten +6.5

Tampa -3

Miami +9.5

Seattle +9.5

Dallas +6.5

I will say this is my lowest confidence week yet. Tampa would be my best bet. Seattle in a conference game but a spot where rams may be looking ahead to KC.

The lines were pretty good. Not much variance between mine and theirs, and AZ, Bills and Raiders are tough for me to endorse right now, even though my math model may.

Gave some thought to Indy as well.

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Final BC Thoughts, and what’s next

Interesting weekend, but surprisingly chalked out.

Accelerate was much the best in the Classic, and in my book deserves horse of the year.

Remarkable job by Peter Miller doubling up with Stormy Liberal and Roy H.

I couldn’t get much handicapping traction all weekend.  I am frequently accused of being a chalk-eater with my picks, but at an event like the Breeders Cup i find it hard to eat the chalk with win-place bets, and it’s equally tough to pair up vertical or horizontal wagers with so many good horses in the fields.   Those that connect are richly rewarded, and due credit is deserved.

A look back and we were around it all weekend.  World of Trouble and Stormy Liberal were on many tickets and hooked up in the stretch. Bellafina, Promises Fulfilled and Firenze got their trips and both wound up ‘good’ fourths if there is such a thing.   Used Enable on top and as a single but didn’t connect there.  Divisidero drew in, and I used him at 36-1 and ran fourth.  Nothing wrong with the logic there, but didnt’ connect.  Abel Tasman was all done.  Definitely a risk that I took, and I don’t think I’ll be playing any more Baffert’s off a similar dud in the future.  When the tank is empty, it’s empty.

My biggest whiffs were being against City of Light, who was also much the best;  I think the Javier Castellano factor helped, as he seemed to figure the track out early, and gave the needed ride.   I didn’t like a work before the race – and I was dead wrong.  Will try to analyze what I’m missing there.    Accelerate was a known entity, I just felt like this was a spot to play against, and he simply proved his quality even more.

Keeping the blog has been an interesting exercise this year.  Writing my thoughts certainly helps to crystalize them, and documenting my play has revealed much as well.   I stunk the last month or two.   But my real life job has been crazy busy.   I think next year after Saratoga, I’ll fold my money over for a couple of months, and likely spot play the BC more so than this year, where i was knee-deep.  The allure of big exotics is enticing, but the volume of races is semi-punishing to ‘cap and play.  (It’s sort of like unloading the bank roll the first week at the Spa)   I will look to be more selective.   One or two good winners can make a weekend in the BC; this year, with all the chalk, was not that year for me.

Personal life slows down for me in the winter; I’m looking forward to the fall Del Mar meet, both for the views of the sunny weather while the Northeast starts to dip into the deep freeze, and for the chance to get back into a regular handicapping rhythm, and start loading up the black book with horses to play back.

 

 

 

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