This year was clearly the most locked in I have ever been on my handicapping, and on Saratoga and Del Mar in particular.

My betting at Saratoga was not memorable from a total ROI perspective, but actually illustrated a number of great points in my ‘handicapping personality’ that I think will lead to more profits down the road.

Saratoga is tough – the best horses on the East coast, and even across the country ship in – so everyone is live.   Trainers and owners do unusual things to get a win – drop, change surfaces, MTOs and god knows what else.   The persistent rain early in the meet was not benefit, as I generally don’t enjoy playing a wet track.  (The lone way I do, is taking some pick six swings on those days, when there is a chance to connect for a moderate return for a small ticket as the wet weather seems to chalk out more).  This played into a variety of track biases with the changing surfaces – inside, outside, speed, closers.

The lessons learned:

Swing Harder, Less Often

• I missed on a couple of playbacks early in the meet, and I think that shyed me a bit, when overall they were a rewarding angle with a number of double figure winners.  I need to sharpen my focus and bankroll on these horses.  I will tread a little lighter early in the meet, and heavier with in-meet playback.

I’m a win-place bettor

• this is the area I excel in.   I will play a greater percentage of my action on these plays.   I had SO MANY pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 near misses and bad beats that it’s evident that is not as strong an area as I am at tracking trips.  I’ll continue to dip a toe in these pools, but more recreationally when i want to take a swing at a big payout.

Continue to improve my note taking

• the play backs aren’t broke; don’t fix them. But I think better track bias notes will lead to more opportunities down the road. A certain amount of this is baked in to my playbacks, but better notes like August 26 was all inside speed that I can translate when I see those horses run back will lead to opportunities on card-to-card play where I can upgrade and downgrade appropriately.

ROI measurement

• I’m disappointed to say I don’t have a good ROI number for the meet, having used two different ADW’s, as well as pushing actual cash through the window from time to time.  I also lost track of my playback ROI in the shuffle.   I caught a $26 horse last week, and several $30+ playbacks during the meet – not all of which I got down on due to poor record keeping.   I’ll admit I am a scattered-organized person, (I know what pile that page is in on my desk) but I simply need a better alert system.  Most of them go in the black book-at a minimum they all need to go in, an ideal would be alerts on the phone at the time of the race.    I got down today before managing a photo shoot for work, and set-it-and-forget-it play on Competitionofideas paid $4.40 and $3.00 for a 170 percent return on investment.   Keep doing the things that work, and track them better.

Post Script

As we move into the fall, two things strike me – how much my schedule changes and how limited my ability to play is.   My work has a certain rhythm to it which lets me really track the spring run up to the Triple Crown, and the summer meets.  My play will get a bit more spotty as i run out my playbacks, and the odd off day on a weekend where I can sit down for half a card, which i will do as much to track trips as play.  I’ll prep for the Breeders Cup, where the chance for big payouts exist, and then get some swings at Del Mar’s fall meet, break for the holidays, and get back into rhythm for the Gulfstream spring meet.  In the meantime, I’m doing some math homework with takeout rates, and will look to minimize my take out, as well as by optimizing the ADW platform i use to maximize promotions, points and rebates.

PPS – we cashed with the Eagles on Thursday   #CashIt