Been long gone, more on that another time. A quickie from the phone today.

I’d plan for chaos today – the derby road has whittled the future book favorites away this year, the 1 post snags renegade, and a few of the AE’s are in.

The chart shows implied win probability and odds (divide by 2 for what they are likely to be on the derby board) and you get a top five who are pretty closely matched.

I’ll be keying Emerging Market and Chief Wallabee in my exotics and multi race plays today based more on the human handicpping factors.

Chad Brown and Seth Klarman have skipped the derby for the preakness on multiple occasions to much success – to see them here with such a lightly raced horse tells me that they can’t help but run him here, and Brown’s success in the Oaks with Always A Runner tells me Emerging Market should be sitting on a big race too.

Chief Wallabee is Bill Mott with a target, always a dangerous angle. I don’t love they have been messing with blinkers for the last couple of workouts, but given the little bit of hang he has had, might be just the ticket ? He’s run multiple speed figures fast enough, and should be improving into today.

Further Ado might beat me, but he has been a little inconsistent to date, and when it all shook out in Lexington that wasn’t much of a field that he blew away. Using underneath.

Crazy longshot ? I can’t really stand behind any one of them, but i will use Intrepido a little. I’m surprised to see him show back up here, but my notes from the SA Derby had him as a playback next time – i just didn’t think it would be in Louisville.

Hope you have a great day of wagering and a julep or two for me!