Friday Recap and SuperContest

Well, quite a day. Honestly these 2 yo races are better to watch run wager.

Was seeing the ball well all day, but hit into a bunch of line-drive outs.

Second choice Bulletin won, but didn’t connect in exotics.

Super chalk NewspaperofRecord cashed, and connected on exacta with East, narrowly missed in tri.

Bellafina got the exact trip, but wide throughout and finished a game fourth, with all the likely’s in the mix.

Game Winner won as chalk, and we cashed on the get out race with Rocketry. Speed prevailed on the main track and the turf sprints. Routes on turf seemed fair to all, but definitely good to yielding turf, so look for runners with that preference.

Back with Saturday’s card later, but in the meantime, this week’s Super Contest plays. We are 20-13-2 heading into the week.

Wash -1.5

Pit +3 (really ?)

Kc -8 (I’d lay 14)

Miami -3

Chicago -10 (I’ll take all the peterman they wanna serve up).

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Breeders’ Cup Friday – Nov. 2, 2018

Interesting how they have split the card this year with all the two year old races today.  I don’t love betting the 2-year olds, with limited form to go off of, it’s not my strongest angle, but of course, I’m jumping in the pool

Race 5 – Juvenile Turf Sprint

2 – Soldiers Call appears to tower above this field on paper

5 – Bulletin rates a look off her first race

I thought #1 Strike Silver was impressive at Saratoga, and we had her on a bet back, but I was not impressed by the recent work.

Will use 8-10-11 underneath as I expect euros to dominate this group.

Race 6 – Juvenile Fillies Turf

How many 2- year old divisions do we need ?

I’m leaning euro again.  I don’t think there is enough information on Newspaperofrecord to deserve a short price, though I’ll include.  Lets take a shot with #5 La Pelosa on top.  Liked the most recent bit of work.  2-12-14 underneath.

Race 7 – Juvenile Filles

OK, I’ll admit, I have had a crush on Bellafina for quite some time.  I’m back aboard again today as she should get a stalking trip, and has shown staying power.  Sources that use alternate figures have her much the best.   3-4-8 underneath to fill out the triple.

Race 8 – Juvenile Turf

(Wait, there are how many divisions ?)

This one is wide open.   Slight preference for Forty Under, as the last was impressive.   14 Anthony Van Dyck has great timeform number and gets 5 lbs off, and gets Lasix, but draws the 14.   Mixed signals.  War of Will outworked Strike Silver, if strike does anything, I’m using Will.   All-burger underneath.

Race 9 – Juvenile

Bob Baffert sends out next year’s derby winner in game winner. J   Ok, time will tell, but speed figs make him the one to beat.  I’m intrigued by Mike Smith getting off Dueling to get on #5 Well Defined, and I’ll put a few bucks down as I think Mike has started shopping for his 2019 derby mount early, as the Storm Cat/Medaglia D’Oro pedigree plays, and his figs aren’t far off the Baffert.

Race 10

Not a Breeders Cup Race, but a Get-out play on #10, old friend Rocketry for Jimmy Jerkens, to let us buy an extra round tonight.

I’ll be tempted to start a cheap pick 5 singling Soldiers Call and use Bellafina as a second single, and spread elsewhere.   My stronger opinions are tomorrow, mostly will be dabbling and watching to see how the track and turf play before Saturday’s main events.

Saturday’s card, and football will follow in the next 24 hours.   Enjoy the BC everyone !

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4-1 Week

Well, 4-1 in the SuperContest plays, and while the Rams didn’t cover, they certainly had every chance to, rallying from an early deficit to be up 10, then taking a knee late to erase a late touchdown.  The ‘capping was spot on.  14-5-1 over the last three weeks of published plays.  How’s your guy doing ?  😉

20-13-2 for the season or 60.6 percent, or +570 for the 100 unit player.  Well on the way to funding that Miami Beach weekend.

Breeders’ Cup analysis and picks later this week.

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I Blew It

Well, I blew it last week with the contest plays. Got wrapped up in a crazy week, running a big awards dinner, and next thing you know it’s a football Sunday, and you’re still wrapping up work and couldn’t care less that the NFL guys are gonna run into each other. Sunday night I actually did a deep internet dive to watch the replay of a local college game I had heard was outstanding. And it was. I have been light on bet backs for the past few weeks, but Sunday Merlin’s Muse paid 8.60 in the middle, and Brown’s CompetitionofIdeas was a short priced winner. We’ll take it.

Here are this weeks super contest plays

Philly -3 (jags are a mess)

Wash pk. (I have two points of line value)

Carolina -2

Indy -3 (best bet)

Rams -9.5

Rare that I like this many favorites. Hoping to provide a full Breeders Cup analysis, schedule permitting…

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Quick Recap

Finished Sunday 3-1-1, so I’m 10-4-1 over the last three weeks. For the season, 16-12-2 on the contest lines, or +280 for the 100 unit player. Giddy up.

From the “rather be lucky than good” – my listing of the lines was all screwed up this week. The Jets were actually laying 2.5 and not getting it. I lived with the line and cashed anyway. We pushed with Arizona, but they are not THAT bad with Rosen at the helm. Maybe a chance to roll a few weeks with them and Buffalo while the perception lingers.

The Jaguars were THAT bad, as was the lean with the Browns.

To date, I’m pleased with the results, clicking along at 57.1 percent. While that number wouldn’t win the contest, we’re not drawing dead for the last 10 weeks. I’ll try to update the virtual standings before next weekend.

I know I haven’t talked horses for a while, but I have had a watch on Santa Monica since I saw her schooling in the paddock at Saratoga. She didn’t look like she loved the rail trip, and lacked room at times in running a somewhat level third in the E.P. Taylor at Woodbine this weekend. I think Sheika Reika may be a real good one, so I will keep an eye on both moving forward. On a secondary note, I’m tossing Proctor’s Ledge from this point forward. Jose Ortiz’s horrific ride at Saratoga seems to have taken something out of her, and I can’t find any more excuses after three straight terrible results.

For those of you who haven’t been to Woodbine, I have Toronto as a great weekend trip. It’s been a while since I have been there, but the track has the casino, the lakefront area is great, you have all the pro sports to catch a game, and you can grab a Cuban cigar while you’re there. Check it out sometime.

Despite my non-posts on the horse front – I have been playing little, but tracking the preps for the BC, I will have a full Breeders Cup preview in a couple of weeks.

Have a great week, and take the wife out to dinner if you’ve been playing along in football.

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Super contest week six -October 14, 2018

This week is tough … OK I said it… This gambling is a tough racket. There are a number of games that qualify using my normal methods of making my own line and then looking at the gap between my line and the contest line. However this week many of those games fall within a field goal either way. (IE. the line is -1 and I made it +1, etc.) and I find there is a bit more randomness in those situations. If you make a game to be that tight, you’re going to get what you get in the end. But, I really like my system when the line moves across a key number or even two. This is how we make the sausage, but it’s not pretty this week.

Arizona +10

Jets +2 1/2

Buffalo +9 1/2

Jacksonville -3

Kansas City +3 1/2

I don’t see how Kansas City is not a favorite over the Patriots this weekend. When the wrong side is favored, I usually kill ‘em.

Keep in mind these are the super contest lines, and not necessarily what you will get at the donut shop this weekend

There are a few more leans that I like as well including Cleveland minus-one, and Carolina plus one. Pittsburgh is close to a play as well. But I’ll live and die with the plays above… We are plus money on the year and hope to keep it rolling even this tough week

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Week 5 NFL

Week five in the NFL and the lines are starting to tighten up… I didn’t find as many discrepancies as normal between my line and the super contest.

This weeks plays will be Green Bay -1

J-E-T-S -1

Pittsburgh -3

skins +6 1/2 on Monday night

My fifth play will be a little out of the box for me Kansas City laying three … I know the Jaguars defense is supposed to be great, but I just don’t know how they’re going to score enough points to keep up with Kansas City. I think the Jags defense is good, but I’m not ready to put them in the Hall of Fame.

With last week’s four and one result, I am 10- 9-1 on the season and positive return territory for the first time this football season.

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Weekend Preview, and a Burger

Lots of action on the track this weekend with many Breeders Cup preps.

I won’t be able to catch Belmont’s action today, but hope to be home in time to see Churchhill and West Coast.

I’m not publishing any horse action, as I haven’t had time to study much lately, though I know my mailbox is full of alerts for today.

Here’s tomorrow’s card for the super contest:

Chicago Bears -3

Detroit Lions +3

Tennessee Titans +4

Miami dolphins +6 1/2

New Orleans -3 1/2

I’ll probably grab the Dolphins getting a touchdown locally in New England …

In the meantime, here’s a great burger find …. Harry’s Place, in Colchester, Conn.

It’s a seasonal roadside stand, with 4-oz or 8-oz burgers cooked on a flat grill… All fresh and local ingredients. Apparently it’s been there for a long, long time… But a great stop off not too far from Mohegan sun… Worth the trip, but you better go soon if you want to catch it this year, they are closing for the season on October 14.

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Enjoy The (Analog) Journey

It was the 20th anniversary of the release of the movie Rounders last week… Complete with a column from the Ringer and a Re-watchable’s podcast from Bill Simmons.

The ‘capper is a huge fan of the movie, as well as of theme  song i’m a big star now (checking it up)… So much that it’s on the playlist when I psych myself up for the races.

But in the ringer’s written piece, there was a great quote from Ed Norton, which reminded me of a column I’ve been thinking about it all summer.

Spice of Adventure

I’m wondering if the advent of nationwide sports gambling, plus widespread casinos, plus sports books and race books in apps on your phone isn’t taking some of the old-school fun out of it all.

You see, an older friend of mine passed away in May. He liked the horses, in fact told me many stories about hot-walking for his uncle the trainer on the New England circuit years ago.

His favorite story was about a horse, named Hip Flip, and how much the horse liked the mud. He told me on several occasions about how he and other teachers he worked with, or family and friends would see that it was raining and pile in the car to drive to the Great Barrington Fairgrounds or to Lincoln Park in Rhode Island to bet the horse.

You see, in life, sometimes the journey is the thing.

When I first got into the racing game, I was living in Vermont.   There was no parimutual wagering to be had at that point as Green Mountain had burned down a few years before. I cut my teeth at Saratoga, and honestly the first time I was dragged there by friends, more because they wanted to use my Ford Explorer for the weekend to pack the family into, then anything else.   One weekend at the track turned into multiple weekends at the track, and the rest as they say, is history.

After that introduction, a coworker and I would occasionally leave our office doors and lights on, as we leave for “lunch” hop the ferry to Plattsburgh to play a handful of races at the OTB, before returning late on the workday.   No one was any the wiser.

(Here’s the thing, if you have to take the car, and a boat, to get your bets down, you’re committed).

After leaving Vermont I landed in New York City, where some friends had a near weekly house poker game.  That game was better than average, as there were a couple of lawyers as well a couple of us working stiffs.  There would be a few thousand dollars in the room, and occasionally someone had to make a trip to the ATM.   It occurred to me that it wasn’t out of the question that the door might get rushed.  A couple of us occasionally dabbled in poker clubs in New York.

If you’ve ever bet with the bookie, you understand the experience as well.  There is a thrill of victory in getting paid, and there’s a certain thrill in going to pay as well.

It’s the thrill of the chase, and of living on the edge just a bit, that breaks the monotony of a 9-to-5, when you never quite know what might happen next. The sneaking around, and being in a quiet fraternity, albeit a widespread one, of punters, that explained why that guy was pulling so hard for the Lions on thanksgiving day.    (I mean really, have you ever met a Lions fan !?)

Fantasy baseball and football were interesting to play for a while. But you quickly learn, there’s nothing quite as uninteresting as someone else’s fantasy football team.   I’m hoping that sports wagering doesn’t become the equivalent – In that the new frontier will make the bad beat story, and who ya got – become the guy at the party who wants to tell you about the kicker he drafted in the 8th round, when you’d really rather be talking the girl with the tattoo who’s had a drink too many.

I do fear in this digital age, the thrill of the journey may be waning.   There’s something about going to the track, the anticipation of the drive, the conversation with friends along the way. There’s something about going to OTB, you’ll never know who you might be sitting next to, and The characters you meet and see, are right out of a modern day Damon Runyon script, and add to the color richness of life.

As we begin this journey into the new age of sports wagering apps and online casinos let’s all remember to enjoy the journey, and embrace the thrill of the chase.

I have a nice room with a big screen, comfortable couches, wireless access and can play anything anywhere in the world.    And it’s great to have that ability – but sometimes, you gotta go to the track, pass the money through the window and pound a winner.

You see, when Ray passed away this spring, we had a group that got together for the wake.   It was on a Sunday afternoon, so as per usual I scanned the entries that day for anything I was interested in.

Just one thing caught my eye, that Jersey Joe Bravo was coming in on Sunday to ride just one horse.   Figured that one must be pretty live, if he’d leave his family at the beach to take the ride.  I took a ride too, and put my money on him.  It wasn’t till we were at the bar after the wake that I looked at the damn app on my phone to see how he’d done. He won, of course, and it at that point I realized that the horse was an homage as well – The horse’s name was Dr. Hipp.

Enjoy the journey my friends.

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Got ‘Em

The Lions came up big against the Patriots, who appear to be over the top, and the ‘capper goes 3-2 in contest plays for the weekend. Still a ways to go to get unstuck for the season, but perhaps the worm has turned. No action tonight on Tampa-Pittsburgh, but the Steelers appear to be simmering just below the surface. Lean to Tampa based on the situation, but not enough to be a full blown play.

Check back tomorrow, as I will shard some thoughts on the rise of the digital age of handicapping.

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