Turfhandicapper.com

Ground out a 6.5 unit profit today, finishing two and one but losing the big play in a close game. But I will always take a profitable week! Keep grinding…

Been a couple of busy weeks here at the Institute of Better Handicapping… Here’s a look at this weeks NFL action. Three plays… The big play Detroit -2 1/2 over Carolina… regular play Jacksonville +8 over Pittsburgh… Regular play Baltimore +2 1/2 over Oakland … some great action at Keeneland this weekend as well, if I have any strong opinions I will get a post up. Hope you have a great weekend, which will start tonight in New England with the Sox playoff rolling right into the Patriots game !

Well, the Lions were easy wrong-side favored winner last night… Those are my favorite kind of plays. That helped make up for a sub par Saturday. Since all handicappers make excuses, here are mine… Minnesota was not a play at game time with the news that Case Keenum would start instead of Sam Bradford. I once heard a coach say “hindsight is 50/50” …. well, in this case it was worse as I misjudged the effect the hurricane bye would have on Tampa and Miami, who both won and covered. Most teams improve the most between their first and second games … apparently the Florida clubs used the extra week to their advantage. Will this make them more dangerous in week 3 with normal improvement? Finally, my instincts proved correct on both the Jets (beyond terrible) and the Bills (not quite terrible) and the lean won. So if you played the lean, your weekend wasn’t so bad.

The stats:

Big Plays: 3-0, +255 units

Leans: 1-0

Overall: 5-7, -30 units

I like to make my plays on a 50, 60, 85 unit system… That way if you go 2-1 on the day but lose the big play you still make money… You have to make them pay you when you have a correct opinion and this is the way I’ve found to do it. Last week we were three and three, but won the two 85 unit plays for a net profit.

Here we go with week two:

Bears +7

Vikings +5 1/2

Eagles +5 1/2

Chargers -3 1/2

Broncos in a pick em

And my wrong side favored play of the week: Lions +3 which will be a big play

Have a lean on the Bills +7.5 as well… They may not be as bad as everybody thought, and the hook looks ok to me.

The number system would make the Jets a play… But I think they are as bad as everybody thinks and won’t touch them right now.

For entertainment purposes only. Good luck and enjoy the weekend !

Jordan Speith’s hole-out from the bunker in the playoff at the Travelers’ may have nearly single-handedly elevated the profile of the tournament into the Greater Phoenix Waste Management category as must watch TV.  The crowds were huge and electric this week with the star-studded field (Day, McIlroy, among others) …  and Speith provided the signature moment with the leaping chest bump of caddie Michael Greller.   ESPN did a nice job of tracking the process of improving the field ( http://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/19697146/golf-travelers-championship-gets-boost-elite-field )   and the Hartford Courant has a great photo gallery ( http://www.courant.com/sports/golf/hc-jacobs-column-travelers-drama-0626-20170625-column.html ), including what’s sure to become an iconic shot !     (photo credit: Brad Horrigan/ Hartford Courant)

First of all, let me say that Belmont Park is one of my favorite places in the world.  There’s something about being in the back yard, looking up at those huge, ivy covered arches  . . . . and for years, I felt my specialty was playing the turf races there.

Oddly enough, I don’t have the strongest inclinations on this race.

I’m going to make my top pick the #9 Meantime.   Going the right way with his Beyers, and i’m not in love with any of the others.  The race shape is a little murky, as a number of these have the option of laying close, or dropping back.  My strongest opinion is that I am against the favorite, Irish War Cry, as i didn’t like the way he came home in the Wood.  Even though he is by Curlin, I don’t think he wants the distance.

I will have a small win play on Meantime (he could walk the dog on the front end, and he is likely as good as any of these).  Second choice will be #6 Lookin at Lee just based on form, and I’ll use #8 Senior Investment, #3 Gormley, and #2 Tapwrit underneath in some exotics.

Overall, the NYRA has put together a very nice card.  I will focus on the early pick 5, and will take a look at the $250k guaranteed pick 3, which ends with Songbird.

(But I still think the Met Mile should be Memorial Day weekend !)

Belmont Park – Race 6 – # 2 Rocketry

Closed like a freight train in his last start into an uber slow pace .  Likely ends up 2-1, so I may end up using more as a tri (with 6-10-11) and as pick 3 key.