Turfhandicapper.com

(For the record, the was written on the Monday or Tuesday after the Kentucky Derby, but never got posted … I think the thoughts are still valid as I am loving this 3 year old season and will likely refer back to the Derby regularly)

Had em surrounded.

It’s easy to feel that way after the Kentucky Derby. My key horse Improbable, ran essentially the race expected, but was unable to make a move in the stretch over take the lead and finished fifth (or sixth, without the DQ). Enough has, and will be written about the DQ, without my opinion added in.

If you bet the Kentucky Derby on an annual basis, you’re going to be wrong more than you’re going to be right. However when you are right you need to make them pay you, and capitalize on the dead money in the pools. I was able to do that on Saturday cashing the Oaks exacta, $439 for a one dollar bet, and picking up the daily double into that race as well.

I barely had Country House on any tickets, and never in a million years had them winning the race. Given the mud, and the bump, I am very willing to chalk this one up to random chance. We had a similar scenario with several races in the early 2000s where a bunch of long shots cashed in the derby. In the scores of analysis I read and listened to prior to the race, the nicest thing I hear about Country House was that he’d get the distance, and would be running late. I dropped him in the three spot on one trifecta ticket, defensively, but that was it.

You Are What Your Record Says You Are

There was a distinct first flight at the finish line, a group I expect to take turns beating each other as spring turns to summer.

1. Maximum Security was the fastest horse. The Beyer speed figures hold up as the most important number in handicapping, and you just have to look back to that to find the winner. Despite the DQ has stamped himself as the best of the crop. Can I make him the Haskell favorite now ?

2. Is Improbable simply a grinder? Hasn’t taken the critical jump forward to get to the top of the level

3. Game Winner got a tough trip. Master Fencer to his inside veered out at the start, Game Winner dropped to 18th in the field, then went 7 wide turning for home, (a move that NEVER wins at Churchill) and had Tacitus veering out into Game Winner in the stretch. Trakus had him running more than 100 feet more than the winner. Add in the trouble and he’s likely to be the wiseguy favorite in Baltimore.

4. War of Will is a real racehorse. The connections didn’t whine about the 1 post, gunned him out and got away clean, took the worst of the bumping and finished a creditable fifth.

5. Code of Honor absolutely skipped over the slop

6. Country House loved the slop too, I’m going to demand he do it on a dry track too

7. Plus Que Parfait isn’t far behind the best of this group. Would love to know what happened in Louisiana

8. I think Tacitus moves up on a dry track. Was going up and down late. Already have him winning Belmont with a dry track.

What seemed a very evenly matched field in the Kentucky Derby developed a bit more intrigue with the defection of Omaha Beach.  For me, that makes the race between Game Winner and Improbable, who I will work with in both multi race and trifecta plays.

This is handicapped with at wet track anticipated, and a typical Derby Day slight speed/presser bias.  Obviously if the track shows totally different signs during the day, you and I may adjust as necessary.

The Pick:  Improbable has won over the Churchill course, and was getting a lot of the overwinter buzz as a possible derby favorite.   But his Rebel was an audible with Santa Anita Racecourse’s problems this spring, and he looked just a touch short and was kept out of trouble all the way around.   Watching his Arkansas Derby, my first thought was that he may not be able to get the derby distance of 1-1/4 miles, but after a couple views of the replay, I think he may simply have been short.  His race reminded me of Good Magic’s Fountain of Youth last year, and that there may be one more screw for Baffert to tighten going into the Derby.  He also ran well on a wet track, as is expected for the weekend.  Full disclosure, I hold a small future wager on Improbable from Pool 1 back in November, and used him in future pool exactas.

I give Improbable a slight nod over Game Winner, mostly based on how well he has looked at Churchill during the morning works, though I expect you couldn’t shine a flashlight between them coming down the stretch.

Narrowly beaten by Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby, a review of Game Winner’s Rebel and Santa Anita Derby both give the impression that he was being kept in the clear and out of trouble simply to get around and get the points to get into the Kentucky Derby.  It is well possible that his best race of the cycle will be the Kentucky Derby and that we haven’t seen his best yet, and he’s proven around two turns at Churchill Downs having won the BC Juvenile on that course.   He may be more of a grinding type, (albeit a very good grinder) he doesn’t have any proven wet track form, though the pedigree would indicate he could handle it, and there hasn’t been the jump forward in Beyer’s that one might hope for as a three-year old.  While that could come on Saturday, there is just enough evidence for me to give the slight nod to improbable.  I’ll use them both on top in my spread trifectas.

Using underneath:

Tacitus, Roadster, Maximum Security – Tier 1

Cashed on Tacitus in Tampa, and the Wood.  His speed numbers are just a bit shy, and will likely be just far enough back that trip could be an issue.  Wouldn’t be a huge surprise on top, but I’ll take a stand against in the top slots.    Roadster matched strides with Game Winner in the Santa Anita derby – he may have already fired his best shot, and Mike Smith got off to ride Omaha Beach.  I think he could come running for a piece with a clean trip.  Maximum Security is a weird horse to me, and I will use him defensively.  I could have won the Florida Derby loose on the lead with the pace he got away with on speed favoring track, so that’s a strong indication against.  His speed figures are among the best in the field, which is an indicator for.   He could be the rabbit for Game Winner, which is an indicator against.  Could get loose on the lead again, an indicator for.  Servis seems to do his best work in Fla and NJ, which is an indicator against.   Will use defensively in the place and show slots.

Code of Honor, By My Standards, Tax , War of Will – Tier 2

This is my “passing tired horses late” group.  By My Standards has been the buzz of the workouts.  But maybe too much to ask to take a fourth straight big step forward on the Beyer scale.  Code of Honor ran decent against the bias in the Florida Derby, Shug brought Orb through Florida a few years back, so he rates a look, but I can’t get him on top with his speed figures.  Tax has been close to Tacitus, hearsay is that Gargan said he might want turf, and turfers tend to run well at Churchill (see Kingdom, Animal) which my sources say is due to the clay base.   War of Will was doing great prior to the Lousiana Derby, then hit a rough patch.  Has trained like a monster at Churchill, as he did for the BC last fall.  Drew the deadly one post, and the Beyers say he’s not fast enough, however, I’m willing to take a stab underneat that he breaks fast, and hangs on for a small piece.  If he doesn’t he’s nowhere, and I’ll look for a better price on him down the road.

For the Record:

5, 16 with 5, 16, 7, 8 with 5,16,7, 8, 13, 2, 3, 17, 1,

That’s a $42 ticket for a dollar, and I’ll likely reverse the 2 and 3 slots for $0.50 as well (or whatever your budget may be)

Exactas with the top two slots.

Small across the board play on #5 Improbable

Good luck, and enjoy the races !

Not much cooking these days, though i may start writing some triple crown trail columns.  The path to the derby looks wide open right now, waiting on someone to truly seize favoritism.

Been keeping an eye on the Dallas Mavericks tanking situation, as they are trying to fall below Atlanta in the standings – ironically so Atlanta won’t receive their top-5 protected first round pick.

Was in Fla for Tampa Bay Derby weekend, but was derailed from attending, but cashed well with Tacitus.  Mostly trying to build a good book of playbacks for the spring and summer.

Giddyup.

I’ve been publishing my plays against the Westgate SuperContest line each week. Been ticking along around 60 percent, and coming off a 4-1 week, we’re close to our high water mark for the season. Having intermittently been traveling on the holidays and working, it’s LATE Saturday night and I don’t have my full stats in front of me. I believe that puts us on the edge of making money in the contest. It’s been an interesting ride, needing to pick five games a week.

This is a week that I’d tread lightly if not in the contest. Tough to read motivation and playing time as the season comes to a close, but here goes!

Cleve +6

Cin +14.5

Min -4.5

Jax +6.5

Ten +3

Cleveland and Cincy have smash mouth division games, just too many points for my tastes … Minnesota needs a win, and Chicago needs health more; reaching with Jax to close the year on a positive after utter year long disappointment as Houston needs to win but not cover; surprised to see the Titans getting points at home in a winner take all game – this is an excellent test of two first year head coaches, and Tenn ought to be motivated off the flop earlier this year. A lean on Green Bay -8 playing at home.

Full yearly results later this week.

Been dipping my toe in at Gulfstream and Santa Anita with good success the past few days. Seeing some developing patterns in Florida in particular.

Super contest plays

Buffalo +13

Houston +2.5

Chicago -4

KC -2.5

Raiders +2.5

Winner with Coal Front at Gulfstream yesterday as tipped by Jonathan Kinchen on the DRF players podcast. Tip of the cap to the players podcast, which is somewhat inexplicably separating from the DRF Brand. I have no idea of the terms, and the Players Pod is apparently continuing in another format, which is terrific as they address the weekly stakes races, which always gives me a great starting point for my handicapping. Also, they routinely discuss wagering strategy, which is of nearly equal importance as picking the winners themselves. Looking forward to the new TBD Players Podcast, and Merry Christmas everyone!

A pair of Saturday games has the card up early for me, as one of the plays lands here. If I wasn’t shadowing the super contest this is likely a week I would be more selective in my plays.

Houston -6

Detroit +2.5

Giants -2.5

Tampa +7.5

Pats -2.5

Carolina +5.5

Good spot for Houston to be motivated with playoffs looming… Buffalo has a date with the Patriots next week that probably stands out more to them than this game with Detroit … like the Giants end of season momentum at home… Baltimore has a date with the Chargers next week, look for them to get out with their lives but spread won’t be important to them… Patriots simply on their ability to bounce back over the years, and they have had the Steelers number for years …. with the winning week I would fold my money over on Monday, but Carolina fits the system numerically. A lean on Oakland….

Going to take a look at some of the stakes races later today… Check the Twitter feed I’ll post if there’s anything I love.

My NFL enthusiasm is petering out with the end of the year. Quick hits.

Atl +5.5

Buffalo -3

Cleveland +2.5

Raiders +10.5

Det -2.5

We’ll see how Green Bay reacts to the coach firing… Seems like too many points. Big conference game for Buffalo at home helps set tone for next year… same thing for Cleveland with a salad opponent at home. Steelers simply giving up to many points to the moribund raiders … Arizona already one there Super Bowl last week with the win over Green Bay, like Detroit to get them in a flat spot … leans on the fish +7.5, and KC -6.5, and the Seahawks +3.5

I’ll update the Super Contest status later this week.

Enjoy your Sunday.