The ‘capper is off to a dubious start to the football season, sitting at 3-6-1 two weeks into the season.
Well that’s far from spectacular, there is still plenty of time to balance the books, in fact, a 4-1 week would do so nicely.
We will go ugly once again…
San Francisco +6 1/2
Washington +2 1/2
Rams -7
Dallas +2
Detroit +7
In the meantime, we are stuck 360. But the air is decidedly brisk this morning, seems as though we have taken a turn – it’s football season !
Been a long week at the office, so I missed out on the bengals on Thursday night.
Here’s my Sunday slate
Green Bay +7
Jets -2.5
KC +4
Arizona +6
Giants +3
My backup play would be Indy +6 if Rogers is unable to go.
This year was clearly the most locked in I have ever been on my handicapping, and on Saratoga and Del Mar in particular.
My betting at Saratoga was not memorable from a total ROI perspective, but actually illustrated a number of great points in my ‘handicapping personality’ that I think will lead to more profits down the road.
Saratoga is tough – the best horses on the East coast, and even across the country ship in – so everyone is live. Trainers and owners do unusual things to get a win – drop, change surfaces, MTOs and god knows what else. The persistent rain early in the meet was not benefit, as I generally don’t enjoy playing a wet track. (The lone way I do, is taking some pick six swings on those days, when there is a chance to connect for a moderate return for a small ticket as the wet weather seems to chalk out more). This played into a variety of track biases with the changing surfaces – inside, outside, speed, closers.
The lessons learned:
Swing Harder, Less Often
I’m a win-place bettor
Continue to improve my note taking
ROI measurement
Post Script
As we move into the fall, two things strike me – how much my schedule changes and how limited my ability to play is. My work has a certain rhythm to it which lets me really track the spring run up to the Triple Crown, and the summer meets. My play will get a bit more spotty as i run out my playbacks, and the odd off day on a weekend where I can sit down for half a card, which i will do as much to track trips as play. I’ll prep for the Breeders Cup, where the chance for big payouts exist, and then get some swings at Del Mar’s fall meet, break for the holidays, and get back into rhythm for the Gulfstream spring meet. In the meantime, I’m doing some math homework with takeout rates, and will look to minimize my take out, as well as by optimizing the ADW platform i use to maximize promotions, points and rebates.
PPS – we cashed with the Eagles on Thursday #CashIt
Let me start by saying there is much about the National Football League that I find completely reprehensible. I’ve gotten so that I have very little interest week to week in the players or the organization. However since it is a moneymaking opportunity I will take a look at it in that light. I was thinking about getting in the Westgate Super Contest this year, but with the end of the Saratoga season plus my regular business, I wasn’t able to get out to Vegas to register in person. I am planning to “play along at home” and I will post my weekly selections using the published Super Contest line.
I traditionally play football, by making my own line, then identifying the biggest discrepancies between my line and the published line. This has been successful for me.
Here are the plays against the super contest lines this week…
Pittsburgh -3.5
San Francisco +6.5
Jacksonville -3
Buffalo +7.5
Denver -3
I may add that this system lends itself to playing a lot of bad teams getting points, so it may not be for the faint of heart.
I have a lean on the Eagles tonight… I know Foles had a terrible preseason, but I expected this game to be Eagles -3 and instead it is the pick on the Westgate line and with my guy at the donut shop. Giddyup!
I’ll recap the summer at Saratoga and Del Mar in my next post.
Yesterday and today provided a pair of body blows, as I was live to a single (the favorite) on a cheap ($18) pick 6 ticket yesterday (and alive to two of them in the pick 4), then today was alive to three horses, each worth $1000 bucks in the late pick four, none of whom managed to make it to the wire first.
Wow.
I was practically counting the money today, thinking I deserved some good karma based on yesterday’s beat. Brutal. I’m staggered. Either of those would have gone a long way towards being meet-makers, freeing up the bankroll to fire for the next couple weekends.
My two playbacks today at the Spa were up the track. Gonna look at my analysis for the spa – it may be such a step up in class (ie running in a 40k claimer at Saratoga is greater than running in a 40k claimer at Gulfstream in June) that I may need to temper those just a bit. I still trust my judgement on the trips, but the hidden class hike may be a factor. Want to see how they run back in the fall.
Anyway, time to see if I have alligator blood. You gotta love the grind. I’m gonna contemplate today with this plate of Hattie’s fried chicken, grab a beer, and start to cap for tomorrow. Have a handful of playbacks in the little black book, and of course the Arlington Million day card is a strong one.
Here we go. Gotta love the grind. Being in beautiful Saratoga definitely eases a bit of the pain !
Seperationofpowers wiped out a bunch of my Pick 4 tickets when she nosed out Mia Mischief in the Test
Two trips to the Spa down, two to go . . . . as i have not posted as much as I hoped to, lets check in on the players guide we posted before the meet.
Del Mar opens tomorrow, and while my focus for the weekend will be on Saratoga, I happen have a bunch of watch horses running back tomorrow – so many that I wish I could jump on a plane to the left coast right now.
Stone Cold Playbacks
R5 – Bird Is the Word – Wide and mild Trouble in last, gets Bejerano this time around instead of Desormeaux
R7 – True Validity – Callaghan runner, working well and looks the part
R9 – Super Duper Cooper – Bobble at the start in last, got up for 2nd, well clear of rest; Asa Espinoza stays aboard
R10 – Data Central – Troubled trip on rail, got stopped rallying 4th on turf at SA behind strong 2-1 MSW, Desormeaux stays.
Action Plays
Regulate – Race 6 – Del Mar – Outran Restoring Hope in a MSW a while back, so there’s talent there, but in this spot gets Talamo, who’s usually not on Baffert’s strongest mounts; Shivermetimbers is in here with Mike Smith, who’s a must use as well.
Bullet Bandit – Race 1 at Mountaineer – runs back 1st time against winners; strong turf pedigree against what may not be the strongest group
Stakes Look
Oceanside: The opening day feature, there are a few ways to go in here; but my top choice will be Peter Miller’s Texas Wedge, who draws inside, should get a stalking trip under Prat has the best last-race beyer, and comes in 1st off the layoff, and looks like he has been pointed and sharpened for this spot. Desert Stone comes in off back to back wins for Baltas and Nakatani, who gets off the 11 to ride here. Calexman has faced Justify, Paved, McKinzie, Blended Citizen, and Ax Man in his previous starts, and has a win over the DMR turf last fall; only hesitation is the outside post and wanting to be forwardly placed so may not get the preferred trip.
I’m as excited as the rest of you for the start of Saratoga this weekend. The next six weeks will play a big role in the outcome of my handicapping year.
With that in mind, here’s a primer with angles that both new and experienced players should appreciate. (And remember, rules are made to be broken).
If you have a favorite angle that you’d like to share, let me know. Can’t wait to get there on Saturday for my first bout of the year. I’ll be hitting the Shake Shack for a burger with hot peppers, and we’ll see you at the Jim Dandy bar . . .
The ‘capper took a break from the Handicapping grind for a few days over the Fourth of July, call it a “freshening” for Saratoga if you will. Traveled to Bar Harbor, Maine, and Acadia National Park for a few days. If you’ve never been to Bar Harbor, it’s vintage small town coastal Maine for tourism, with plenty of restaurants, and a great fireworks show which has led it to be called one of the best 4th of July celebrations in America. 
Got one “hard work” in with a hike over Flying Mountain (the guide called it ‘moderate’ , I’d call it $%#!, as my morning walks are usually on a flatter and faster track), and more of a canter along the Shore Path the next morning past some terrific seaside mansions. Of course the mountain hike demanded a great meal after, and the Chart Room in Hulls’ Cove didn’t fail to deliver, as they have for several decades. A New York Strip and Bang Bang Shrimp were the order of the day to go along with a nice Malbec !
Saturday watch horse Jersey’s Heat delivered a $17 winner as well. I have been admittedly terrible about posting the watch horses when entered. (As I noted in a recent post, I have been nearly as terrible about wagering on them.) But the Spa looms just 10 days away, and I am champing at the bit to get there. I am planning to be in Saratoga for opening day, Whitney Weekend, and Fourstardave Weekend, as well as Travers Day. Here’s hoping for good weather, with rain only on Tuesdays, and safe trips for all. The seaside freshening has done me some good. Let’s get after it at the Spa !
I enjoyed an afternoon at Laurel Park this past Saturday, the first time I had ever been there. I was on a business trip in the DC area so things timed out right for the stop as I headed back up the east coast. It’s a pretty cool little venue, and if I lived in the area would be my go to for playing off track. Several very nicely renovated areas with carrells for ‘cappers, and a full slate of tracks beyond what’s going on outside.
Outdoors the octagonal covered paddock and walking ring is a sight. I was told it is a historic building by a racing official (sorry I didn’t catch your name) that I was speaking with before racing got underway.
Indoors is nicely air conditioned, which was welcome given the 90 degree temperatures outside.
I’d love to say I capped it all off with a nice score, but it was a slow day at the windows for me as I was interested in exploring the venue as capping the action.
So in this case, the highlight was the nice venue and people, scratching another track off my life list, and the crab cake sandwich at the Tips Restaurant near the clubhouse turn.
Watch runner Bullet Bandit won in the 1st at Mountaineer on Sunday, coming back off one of the most brutal trips/rides I had ever seen last time out. I didn’t see the race this time, but jockey Erik Barberan must have cleaned things up this time around. I was surprised to see him get the return call after the last.
I think I’ll have a watcher or two to offer up this week, and hoping that the weather cools to a modest degree to ensure good racing in the Stars and Stripes festival at Belmont on Saturday.
Turfhandicapper.com 