How much is enough ?

Posted on August 4, 2019 by turfcapper

Had two playbacks yesterday at Saratoga, in McKinzie and Red Zinger.

McKinzie won and paid 3.70 and 2.70. Red Zinger was second and paid 5.50 to show.

Based on my well established 1x win and 1.6x place betting strategy, that would have provided a nice profit for the day.

But nooooooooooooo, the old capper had to dip a toe in the waters with the multi race wagers. My pick 3 used McKinzie and Red Zinger as singles. And went down when the Zinger got passed late. And then, out of sheer boredom, pushed the chips back in on the pick 5 at Del Mar. And by the title and tone of this bit, you know what happened then, right ?

The two playbacks were good for a 61 percent profit. How much is enough?

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Oh Canada !

Posted on July 25, 2019 by turfcapper

I spent just enough time in Rochester NY earlier in life to appreciate having Fort Erie on the Simulcast at the Henrietta Road OTB, where I would often take lunch late so I could dip in and bet an exacta before slogging back to the office.

Cashed with Tone Broke in the Prince of Wales, as my trip note on him and his back dirt form indicated he’d be a strong play, and 11/2 at post time was a gift.

I indicated this on my Twitter feed in some of the lead up to the race.

Admittedly, we were helped when Avies Flatter crushed One Bad Boy down to the rail out of the gate – who then had to be ridden hard inside to get in position.

Which, of course, leads to an opportunity. One Bad Boy was completely taken out of his front running game and never had a chance to relax. Also appears that he may be better on turf and synth, so odds are he will be a strong play back, either in the next leg of the Canadian triple crown, or wherever he shows up next.

Brilliant move by Fort Erie having their biggest race day on a Tuesday evening. Couldn’t wait to get home and play there, and they handled all my action on Tuesday. Well done!

We’ll have a throw with Better Tapit in the fourth today at Saratoga. Regally bred, strong debut, even run last time, but to my eye they stiffed the ride a little bit because they wanted to get in the winners circle at the Spa – so let’s get there with them.

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Hey Hey, It’s A Wild Weekend

Posted on July 22, 2019 by turfcapper

What a long, hot, and almost grueling weekend of capping. Couldn’t have gotten much weirder with the heat cancellations on the East Coast and Monmouth’s disastrous Haskell Delay on Saturday. After all that, I scored out on playback Lostintranzlation in the final race of the weekend at Del Mar, a 14.40 winner that was never threatened gate to wire. That’s the way to win them.

A yeomanlike effort from Maximum Security on Saturday. He did what he was supposed to do in winning the Haskell, but didn’t look overly sharp in doing it. Seems like something may not be quite right with the big horse. (And man is he big. He looks like a steer.). Curious to see where he goes from here. My inclination is that he skips the Travers and goes to the Pennsylvania Derby. He may be the best 3 yo, or he maybe just peaked early than the rest of the crop – that remains to be seen.

This should be a good week or two to catch prices at the Spa – some of the big names have unloaded their barns for the beginning of the meet – keep an eye out for boutique barns and interesting shippers.

Also scored on a big trifecta early in the day at the Spa. Really feeling confident on where my ‘capping is at right now, and my book of playbacks has been more reliable than Charles Schwab.

Looking forward to the Jim Dandy next weekend – I expect War of Will to boatrace that field. Hopefully we get a showdown with WoW and Maximum Security before the year is out.

Here’s a little tune to cap this wild weekend: https://youtu.be/PQ5UlyBgHN8

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NBA Madness

Posted on July 6, 2019 by turfcapper

The NBA has gone nuts with all the free agent movement this season, and what I think are depressed values on futures to win the title. 2-1 on the Clippers is madness, even with today’s Kawhi news.

I’m looking at the Eastern Conference right now and saw a 66-1 on the Pacers that I’m likely to grab, then create some leverage next year in the playoffs. Despite all the free agent movement, the league is very balanced. Milwaukee, Celtics, Philly, and about 9 teams in the West can’t be ruled out.

It would be crazy to take less than 5-1 on any singular team to win and tie your money up in futures for that long. Better to play series by series in the postseason.

Don’t be a rube and get sucked in by these crap sports books just because you can bet in your state now.

My 2¢ for today.

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Tough Way to Earn Pizza Money

Posted on June 17, 2019 by turfcapper

I ate the chalk big time this weekend on something I don’t normally do – I fired it in in the show pool on Maximum Security to earn pizza money.

I was more nervous than Jason Beem when the big horse stumbled coming out of the gate.

Fortunately Saez stayed aboard, and piloted Max around safely in second.

Given the layoff and the stumble, I’ll forgive the second-place finish … and wonder if it will take any of the luster off in the win pool if he comes back as planned in the Haskell ?

On the one hand, I cashed for 5 percent in less than two minutes, which is way better than I have done in the stock market of late. But I’m not sure I want to make all of my pizza money that way !

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Oh Canada

Posted on June 14, 2019 by turfcapper

Great job by the Raptors closing out the NBA finals in six games (and cashing at +400). The Warriors were up against it from an injury perspective and Klay’s ACL was the dagger. (Perhaps the NBA schedule is too long for teams to sustain multi-year title runs as the mileage builds on star players ?).

From the Toronto side, I think the Raps prove to be an interesting exercise in team-building, as they assembled a group of players with unique skill sets around Kawhi, which sort of feels like moneyball for basketball.

Marc Gasol was the finishing touch – a unique combination of size, shot blocking, paint clogging, passing and three point shooting.

VanVleet’s three point shooting and D on Curry belie his undrafted status. Great scouting and player development.

Siakam and Serge Ibaka provided athletic wing play, shot blocking length, and fill the lanes on the break.

Lowry, to me, is an odd mix, more of a throwback guard and not a statistically great three-point shooter, but physically strong, streaky enough to have an impact, and looked to be the heart and soul of the franchise.

Kawhi has evolved into a top 5 player in the league – strength, the Klaw, shooting, overall athleticism and hustle.

Overall the pieces were a great fit, with interchangeability and the ability to spread the floor and get points from different sources which made them extremely hard to defend, while their on-ball defense with Lowrie, VanVleet and Siakam played with the shot blocking ability on the back line.

As a group, this may have been a one-time deal, but to me, with the assemblage of this is the new blue print for the NBA.

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2019 Belmont Stakes Recap and Notes

Posted on June 10, 2019 by turfcapper

Some days are better than others.  My top pick of Tacitus did not quite work out as planned.  He ran well, but was hung wide all the way around and finished second.   The Trakus data below backs this up:

Belmont Trakus(Screengrab from NYRA.com)

Interesting to note, Tacitus ran 65 feet more than the winner, Sir Winston, and got the final ¼ quicker than anyone except Master Fencer.  Had that result been reversed, I’d have cashed very well.  Instead, it was just a 20 percent profit based on my normal win-place margin.

Several things I am pleased with on the weekend, was recognizing the track bias on Thursday, and using it to advantage in a couple of spots Friday and early Saturday.

I believe the bias relaxed slightly later in the day – the track appeared to be watered heavily (I am NOT an expert in track maintenance) mid-day, and was more favorable to closers than it was early.  Of course, it was classy horses trying to close, and speed still held as Mitole won the met mile.

Mitole showed his class, doing something he hadn’t done, winning at mile, and doing so while contesting the pace, and holding off McKinzie and Thunder Snow.   McKinzie took the worst of the trip, and should have won with better racing luck.  He’s due for a big win somewhere along the way.  I think its interesting that Mckinzie really needed the Met Mile to stamp his stallion credentials, despite a Grade 1 on the resume.   This will lead to my “Most Important Races” post coming soon.  (Hint:  Two of them were run Saturday).

Secondly, I downgraded my use of War of Will late.  During the run up, I heard just enough buzz about the horse “getting his energy back” and “doing better” that led me to believe the Preakness effort may have done him in.  Will danced every dance of the prep season, with three races in Louisiana in the run up to the Derby, and had all rights to be over the top after peak efforts in the Derby and Preakness.   I think the connections felt the need to run him to help stamp his stallion card, hoping they could point to a pair of triple crown wins.   He’ll still be looking for a big grade 1 later this year.  I also included a bit of Sir Winston in multi-race and exacta plays, figuring that he was indeed a bit of an insurance policy for the Casse barn with Will off his best.   To my eye in the post parade, War Of Will looked as though he had lost weight and condition since the Preakness, which made him a straight play against before entering my final tickets.

After big scores on the Kentucky Oaks and the Preakness, Belmont weekend I ended up running in place, hitting some spot plays, but unable to really nail a multi-race sequence, or a big exacta, which were my preferred plays of the weekend.

Time to start building the playback book for Saratoga !

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The Metropolitan Mile Is All Class

Posted on June 8, 2019 by turfcapper

What is class ? To me, class is not only the ability to run a big number, but the ability to do so under various conditions, competition and circumstances. That will be tested in today’s Met mile where many of the horses seem to have a legitimate shot to win. However, the winner will likely have the greatest class in the race… Where will this come from? Let’s take a look.

Mitole has a surfeit of speed, however is being asked to do something is not done before, in going a mile

Firenze Fire gets his hometown track, a spot where he is three for three and has run his two best speed numbers, the gaudy 107 and a 109, albeit not against the best fields he’s met.

Promises Fulfilled is a multiple graded stakes winner, but does not have a grade one on the resume, nor has he been able to show any ability to win without the lead.

Pavel has won a grade-one stakes, however it was probably one of the lightest grade 1 fields you will see in the Stephen Foster last year, additionally he is first off Dubai.

Coal Front has multiple graded stakes wins on multiple tracks, but does not have a grade one and has not been the best of the best of this generation yet.

All this leads me to McKinzie, who needs this race to solidify his status as a future stallion, seems ideally suited to get the mile having one at both shorter and longer distances, and has repeatedly run against the best of his generation. It’s now or never for this one, who doesn’t seem to want the mile and a quarter of the classic races including the breeders cup. He also has tactical speed, can lead when necessary, because of his natural speed, but is probably best tracking is the pace. There should be plenty of speed to run at, and despite yesterday’s speed bias, I have to think that with at least three of these hell-bent for reelection on the lead, McKinzie will get a near perfect pace set up

I will complete the exacta with Thunder Snow, who I believe will be an overlay based on his European base and his Kentucky Derby reputation. However, he has established himself as one of the best handicap horses in the world, and has already run well once here at Belmont.

Can you design a race for the others to win? I think you can, particularly if the speed bias from Friday persists today.

Regardless, the winner, in my book will have true class.

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It’s Tacitus  . . . . unless it isn’t

Posted on June 6, 2019 by turfcapper

I’ve been waiting to bet-back on Tacitus in the Belmont, almost since before the Kentucky Derby.  I had him pegged as one of the ones for the Derby, but all along I had a sneaking suspicion that Tacitus was on a course mapped out to get him to the Belmont in good form.

Well, he has arrived, and is in good form  . . .  and unfortunately from a wagering standpoint, is the morning line favorite – which is not what I was anticipating nor hoping for.

The horse is tailor made for the course in terms of breeding and form, and figures to be able to determine where he wants to stalk from an outside post.

But at 2-1 I’m not sure that’s tasty enough to make my planned win bet.   His speed figures are in line with War of Will (who hasn’t worked) and Sir Winston (who shows up).   I think things are still leaning Tacitus’ way to fire his best shot, but I’ll likely try to press him as a strong A in multi race plays, and use the other two as B’s defensively.

More to come as I break down the full card.

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Bang Bang – The Warriors

Posted on June 6, 2019 by turfcapper

Grabbed the Raptors to win in six games +800 and in seven games +400 yesterday morning. Feels like we are looking at the end of the run for the Warriors. At some point, its just two many injuries for a team to withstand. Durant, Klay, Looney, limited Boogie and limited Iggy and ba-dee-ba-dee-that’s all folks.

Curry remained magnificent, but the other dudes out there can’t hit a shot, and they can’t defend the paint either. Do you think those stiffs are going to play BETTER on the road? No chance in France (or Toronto).

With free agency looming, Klay facing the non-All-NBA designation, and the slew of injuries, I think we’ve seen the best of the Warriors run, and the Raptors are in the catbird’s seat for the rest of the series, and we can always play a against in game 7 to reduce liabilities if somehow the Warriors get healthy and give us their best shot.

As an aside, have you noticed that the Raps’ logo looks much like Patty Smyth’s jacket in “The Warrior” — maybe that’s a sign.

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